SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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January 20th, 2016 at 1:27:33 PM permalink
I follow the election process a tad, but not as much as some I am sure. Amazingly the betting favorite to be the Democrat Vice Presidential candidate is........


JULIAN CASTRO? I read a blurb about his accomplishments, and all it mentioned was that he was Latino and thus would make a great running mate for Hilary. Mayor of San Antonio, by the way.....

The Republicans are no better with Nikki Haley leading the pack. She did give a good speech...

We make such a big deal about learning every iota about every presidential candidate, so we can VOTE for the best one, but for VP it is someone picked out of a hat. Since the VP is of course first in line to be prez if needed, I think this system of selecting him or her sucks.
jml24
jml24
Joined: Feb 28, 2011
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January 20th, 2016 at 3:47:30 PM permalink
Worried about the next Gerald Ford? With Trump, Clinton, and Sanders all near or over 70, the probability of the next VP becoming president seems higher than average. The other Republican front runners are young, though.
terapined
terapined
Joined: Dec 1, 2012
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January 20th, 2016 at 4:46:28 PM permalink
Trump/Palin
Why not
Its a hoot
"Everybody's bragging and drinking that wine, I can tell the Queen of Diamonds by the way she shines, Come to Daddy on an inside straight, I got no chance of losing this time" -Grateful Dead- "Loser"
RonC
RonC
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January 20th, 2016 at 6:20:30 PM permalink
Quote: jml24

Worried about the next Gerald Ford? With Trump, Clinton, and Sanders all near or over 70, the probability of the next VP becoming president seems higher than average. The other Republican front runners are young, though.



VP Biden is 73; he could end up the candidate if the Democrats feel Sanders can't win and Hillary ends up in jail...all a VERY long shot, of course, but the odds are nearly as long as 18 yo's in a row...
kewlj
kewlj
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January 20th, 2016 at 6:48:18 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


JULIAN CASTRO? I read a blurb about his accomplishments, and all it mentioned was that he was Latino and thus would make a great running mate for Hilary. Mayor of San Antonio, by the way.....



I also think it will be one of the Castro twins. Julian makes more sense than his brother because his brother would have to vacate his House seat and Julian will be looking for a job when the Obama administration ends (I assume).
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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January 20th, 2016 at 9:06:23 PM permalink
Julian hits all the right contrasts and demographics and is very popular (to my knowledge) in Texas, where Dems are rising but still outnumbered.

He's very young, but has executive gov't experience, which helps with the age issue (both hers and his). He's latino, which helps with them and other minorities and balances off Jeb, Cruz, and Mario all in one, and he's Southern, which might help in places where Hillary is still regarded as a carpetbagger despite the time in Arkansas. He's got a clean record professionally and personally.

I would guess it's all about electoral math. Florida, Texas, Nevada, and California will all be in play. He helps with all of those.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
kewlj
kewlj
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January 20th, 2016 at 9:38:43 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs


I would guess it's all about electoral math. Florida, Texas, Nevada, and California will all be in play. He helps with all of those.



Two of those states are not in play.

If Texas is in play the dems win so big they take back the senate and the only real question is how many seats they take back in the house.

Likewise if California is in play, then a republican will win the presidency and the repubs will easily hold the senate and probably increase their advantage in the house
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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January 20th, 2016 at 9:46:37 PM permalink
Texas is considered purple these days, especially in Presidential years. The Dems are focused on winning it, and the experts think it will be very close. I think it's the #1 reason the Castros are short-listed for VP.

Hillary has high negatives in CA as well as high positives. It could swing depending on the matchup. I haven't seen any polling that would indicate Sanders' relative chances.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
cestanl
cestanl
Joined: Aug 31, 2011
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January 20th, 2016 at 10:00:39 PM permalink
I lived in San Antonio for two years, he definitely doesnt seem like a bad choice!
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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January 20th, 2016 at 10:13:06 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Texas is considered purple these days, especially in Presidential years. The Dems are focused on winning it, and the experts think it will be very close. I think it's the #1 reason the Castros are short-listed for VP.

Hillary has high negatives in CA as well as high positives. It could swing depending on the matchup. I haven't seen any polling that would indicate Sanders' relative chances.



Found a really interesting thing on Nate Silver's 538 blog about this. Here's a screen shot:



So, the graphs above are set to reflect the vote nationally from the 2012 election. The 4th graph, and 4th column, are Latinos. They voted in 2012 71% Democratic, with a 48% turnout. However, when I move them to 85% Democratic and a 70% turnout, that's the breakpoint for Texas to turn blue (shown in the last column). The 4th column is what percentage of the state is currently Latino.

Last poll I saw, Hillary Clinton was running at 85% nationally with Latinos (this week, not sure which poll). If one of the Castro brothers of Texas were her (or any Dem's) running mate, there's no question in my mind the Texas Latinos would turn out in force to vote for that ticket, 70% at least (not out of the question, with 77% of CE Whites turning out). So with 38 electoral votes, that could be the ballgame right there.

EDIT: FWIW, if the Hispanics nationwide turn out at 70% and break 85-15% and nothing else changes among other demographics, AZ and NC are the other 2 states that change from red to blue. The rest of the states stay where they were.
Last edited by: beachbumbabs on Jan 20, 2016
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

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