Chodempole
Chodempole
Joined: Oct 13, 2014
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 40
January 6th, 2016 at 5:02:51 PM permalink
If I bet 2% of my bankroll on 10 games and make a profit, then adding my profit and resizing my bet would be smart over the long run, assuming you always make a profit. But if you lose and resize so that your next bet is smaller than the original then bet sizing at a certain percentage is worse than flat betting, right?
tongni
tongni
Joined: Feb 27, 2013
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January 6th, 2016 at 5:52:45 PM permalink
Resizing is always optimal after every bet, but it's not necessarily practical. You probably should become familiar with the Kelly Criterion, although betting full Kelly will probably cause you a few grey hairs. For example, if you have an 80% chance of winning a even money bet, you'd bet 60% of your bankroll on it to maximize growth.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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January 6th, 2016 at 7:01:24 PM permalink
Quote: tongni

Resizing is always optimal after every bet, but it's not necessarily practical. You probably should become familiar with the Kelly Criterion, although betting full Kelly will probably cause you a few grey hairs. For example, if you have an 80% chance of winning a even money bet, you'd bet 60% of your bankroll on it to maximize growth.



If my math's right, I think you'd bet 93.75% of your bankroll, for full kelly.

Edge/variance * bankroll = wager

Edge is 0.60
Variance is 0.64

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