ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
June 11th, 2015 at 1:13:01 PM permalink
Probably won't last long, but as of this time (4 pm EST), the website below has the GS Warriors Spread @ $1.92 (-2.5) and the ML @ $1.67

http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/basketball-us/nba-matches/Golden-State-Warriors-At-Cleveland-Cavaliers-2041627.html

Personal Opinion: I actually think the Cavs are the better value team, but I still had $300 @ $1.92 and $150 @ $1.67 with the above sportsbook on the Warriors
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
June 11th, 2015 at 1:36:32 PM permalink
Still the same prices and spreads as of 1630 EST,

most other books have GS @ - 4 atm
kewlj
kewlj
  • Threads: 216
  • Posts: 4635
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
June 11th, 2015 at 1:49:38 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Still the same prices and spreads as of 1630 EST,

most other place have GS @ - 4 atm



I saw -3 several places in Vegas this morning (Westgate superbook and sonny hill).

I wagered 440 on the warriors for the series this morning @ -110. ($440 to win $400). This was actually a hedge on my previous bet before the series started of $400 on cavs @ +200. ($400 to win $800)

I know hedging is for wimps. I just don't think the cavs have 2 more miracles in them. Lebron is killing himself. I think his little injury at the end of last game was bigger than we know. Dellavanova is so spent that he spent 24 hours in the hospital after game 3.

I never liked Lebron, but I am pulling for the cavs. I think it would be the greatest performance ever if he was to carry this team to a championship with the next 2 best player out. So now after my hedge I am set up if golden state wins I am even, if The cavs go on and win I win $360.

BTW, the team that wins game 3 of a series tied 1-1, in the finals has gone on to win 84% of the time. That's a strong trend, but the cavs are so depleted, this may be that minority.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
June 11th, 2015 at 1:51:37 PM permalink
price changed to $1.55 and the spread is now -4.0, @ Sportsbet now,
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
June 11th, 2015 at 1:56:16 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

I saw -3 several places in Vegas this morning (Westgate superbook and sonny hill).

I wagered 440 on the warriors for the series this morning @ -110. ($440 to win $400). This was actually a hedge on my previous bet before the series started of $400 on cavs @ +200. ($400 to win $800)

I know hedging is for wimps. I just don't think the cavs have 2 more miracles in them. Lebron is killing himself. I think his little injury at the end of last game was bigger than we know. Dellavanova is so spent that he spent 24 hours in the hospital after game 3.

I never liked Lebron, but I am pulling for the cavs. I think it would be the greatest performance ever if he was to carry this team to a championship with the next 2 best player out. So now after my hedge I am set up if golden state wins I am even, if The cavs go on and win I win $360.

BTW, the team that wins game 3 of a series tied 1-1, in the finals has gone on to win 84% of the time. That's a strong trend, but the cavs are so depleted, this may be that minority.



"Hedging is for wimps": I personally like hedging (when I can do it),

But I think most 'smart punters' say it is generally better to let the bet stand over the long-term, but I could be wrong
kewlj
kewlj
  • Threads: 216
  • Posts: 4635
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
June 11th, 2015 at 1:57:28 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

price changed to $1.55 and the spread is now -4.0, @ Sportsbet now,



Geez, -4 is getting up near the alternative point spread which was 7 at westgate this morning.

GS -7 +200
kewlj
kewlj
  • Threads: 216
  • Posts: 4635
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
June 11th, 2015 at 2:10:11 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

"Hedging is for wimps": I personally like hedging (when I can do it),

But I think most 'smart punters' say it is generally better to let the bet stand over the long-term, but I could be wrong



I agree hedging is usually a bad play. I think this is a special circumstance. This is no longer the same team that it was when I placed my initial wager. They are depleted to the point I don't think they can win any longer. So I want to take advantage of the fact that they did miraculously win 2 games and put me in the position to hedge. And if they some how have two more miracles in them, I will be ok with having given up half of my potential profit.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
June 11th, 2015 at 2:51:52 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

I saw -3 several places in Vegas this morning (Westgate superbook and sonny hill).

I wagered 440 on the warriors for the series this morning @ -110. ($440 to win $400). This was actually a hedge on my previous bet before the series started of $400 on cavs @ +200. ($400 to win $800)

I know hedging is for wimps. I just don't think the cavs have 2 more miracles in them. Lebron is killing himself. I think his little injury at the end of last game was bigger than we know. Dellavanova is so spent that he spent 24 hours in the hospital after game 3.

I never liked Lebron, but I am pulling for the cavs. I think it would be the greatest performance ever if he was to carry this team to a championship with the next 2 best player out. So now after my hedge I am set up if golden state wins I am even, if The cavs go on and win I win $360.

BTW, the team that wins game 3 of a series tied 1-1, in the finals has gone on to win 84% of the time. That's a strong trend, but the cavs are so depleted, this may be that minority.





Yeah, when I do hedge, I usually lean towards making a 'profit' on the first bet (if that team wins), and make the second(hedge) bet a 'push' (if that teams win), like you did below:

"I wagered 440 on the warriors for the series this morning @ -110. ($440 to win $400). This was actually a hedge on my previous bet before the series started of $400 on cavs @ +200. ($400 to win $800)"
  • Jump to: