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EdCollins
EdCollins
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
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October 13th, 2014 at 10:45:43 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Did anyone confirm that the probabilities I used were appropriate?


Yes, the were fine.

You said the probability of winning the straight bet was approximately 38.6% and the probability of winning the over was approximately 43.8%. Those numbers were fine for my estimations.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
  • Threads: 236
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October 14th, 2014 at 8:12:20 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Yes, the were fine.

You said the probability of winning the straight bet was approximately 38.6% and the probability of winning the over was approximately 43.8%. Those numbers were fine for my estimations.



Thanks. At least I got that part right.

Edit: And congrats on your win Ed!
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
EdCollins
EdCollins
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1292
October 14th, 2014 at 8:56:27 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Thanks. At least I got that part right.

Edit: And congrats on your win Ed!


Thanks. I got lucky! As it turned out I needed that pick six!

Initially when the Rams went up 14 to zip in the first quarter, I was looking real good. The Rams are leading (the team I picked) and we're on pace for a 56 point game. Can't ask for more than that.

I knew once the Rams scored 23 points or more, I couldn't lose. (If San Fran scores enough to overtake this total, they win the game but the game would of course go over 46, so I win on the tie-break.)

But at some point somewhat late in the 3rd quarter it was only 17-14 San Fran, and I wasn't looking so good. I still needed two touchdowns and a field goal. I was fortunate enough to get it. I felt bad for anyone who took the Under.

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