Arnie
Arnie
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September 12th, 2014 at 4:49:18 AM permalink
You get 25% back

The cards I am talking about offer 3 out of 3 - 5 for 1 which is really 4 to 1 or 4 out of 4 - 10 for 1 which is 9 to 1.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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September 12th, 2014 at 10:52:04 AM permalink
Quote: Arnie

You get 25% back

The cards I am talking about offer 3 out of 3 - 5 for 1 which is really 4 to 1 or 4 out of 4 - 10 for 1 which is 9 to 1.



If you are getting 25% of your action back then you are really getting 4.25:0.75 = 5.666:1 and 9.25:0.75 = 12.333:1.

These are still not fair odds (fair odds would be 7:1 and 15:1) assuming that they are half-point cards. If there is the possibility of ties (full-point spreads), how are ties handled?

You still might be able to beat them if they have bad lines -- the Wizard has a whole page on beating stale half-point parlay card lines.
Arnie
Arnie
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Joined: May 14, 2012
September 12th, 2014 at 10:55:03 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

If you are getting 25% of your action back then you are really getting 4.25:0.75 = 5.666:1 and 9.25:0.75 = 12.333:1.

These are still not fair odds (fair odds would be 7:1 and 15:1) assuming that they are half-point cards. If there is the possibility of ties (full-point spreads), how are ties handled?

You still might be able to beat them if they have bad lines -- the Wizard has a whole page on beating stale half-point parlay card lines.




Nope no half points and ties lose...thanks I'll check out the Wizards page
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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September 12th, 2014 at 11:06:33 AM permalink
Quote: Arnie

Nope no half points and ties lose...thanks I'll check out the Wizards page



If ties lose this is way worse. They probably put a lot of the lines on key numbers like 3 and 7 whenever they can. So the "fair odds" are way higher than I mentioned.

The fact that you are still losing a lot of money when you get 25% of your action back tells you just how much of a sucker bet this is. 4:1 for a 3-team ties lose parlay? That is a scam. A slot machine with that bad odds would not be legal in Nevada (or just about any other jurisdiction in the US, as far as I know). The house edge is probably well north of 50% (the "ties lose" restriction makes it difficult to determine the exact edge, since it is different for every set of picks. Games with a spread of 3 are the worst to pick by far, followed by 7)
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