NFL betting on score outcomes?

If somebody were to bet on the score outcome of the NFL of a given team (team is totally irrelevant), but the only choice was you bet on if the score would be even or odd at the conclusion of the game. So for example you would place 10 dollars on Philadeplhia Eagles will Even (all that matters is if at the end of that game their score is even or odd, who they face and who wins or loses is totally irrelevant). And if you get it right say you bet even on Eagles and they ended with 30, you would be paid even money so you would get 10 back plus 10. Would this be a good bet?

Or better yet is there a discernable advantage between any given team ending with a score of even or odd? (I don't watch Football so I couldn't even judge by past examples). Or is it pretty much 50/50 as far as the probability of ending at even vs odd? I know Football has a lot of different scores that give different amounts of points, so it seems possible that because of the ways to score one way may be more scewed than the other?

50-50

Quote: strictlyAP

50-50

I'm not sure that's true, given the 3 point FG and 6+1 TD, because you almost always have an odd score before you have an even score, and it takes 2 scores (generally) to make an even one. I would think taking "odd' would be a slight advantage.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I'm not sure that's true, given the 3 point FG and 6+1 TD, because you almost always have an odd score before you have an even score, and it takes 2 scores (generally) to make an even one. I would think taking "odd' would be a slight advantage.

I would love to see some analysis on this. I'm sure the Wiz has enough data to run it, but doubtful he has the time or inclination :).

Well, just PM me as I can tell you the score of any NFL game before it starts.

Quote: Buzzard

Well, just PM me as I can tell you the score of any NFL game before it starts.

0-0?

I would definitely assume the ODD bet would be plus EV for the reasons Babs mentioned

Quote: DRich

I would definitely assume the ODD bet would be plus EV for the reasons Babs mentioned

But what she said was exactly backwards. You don't start with an odd score, you start with an even one (0).

I looked back at the past two years. EVEN was scored in 502 games and ODD in 522. The median score was 23 each year, the average went up last year from 22.7 in '12 to 23.4 in '13. The most frequent score was 27 points (71 occurrences) followed by 20 and then 24.

EDIT: Regular Season Only

The probability of an odd total, or margin of victory, in the NFL is about 55%. However, I never worked out the probability of a specific team being odds or even. In my many years betting props, I've never seen that one, except on Super Bowl parlay cards.

You can find my estimated probability for any given point spread and total for this and lots of props with my NFL Proposition Bet Calculator.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

0-0?

No. The member has caught you in a high school prank.... Before the game starts, there is no score. Easy come easy go.