Yahoo Billion dollar challenge
Quote: vert1276If you fill out a perfect NCAA bracket on yahoo you will win 1 billion...What do you think the odds are of going 65-0 in your bracket? Many games are a "chalk"....1 vs 16 or 2 vs 15 seeds....or even 1 vs 8 or 9 seed in the second round.....so you cant use a coin flip probability....what do you think the odds are of a 65-0(counting 2 play in games for the 16 seeds) and picking a perfect bracket? I hear since the announcements of the teams a couple hours ago(selection Sunday) Yahoos server got so much traffic its down......
My son is at Missouri. They lost as a number 2 seed. 8/9 beating number one is probably 20%. I'd guess your chance at around 1 out of (2 to the 58th power).
Quote: vert1276I hear Buffet is willing to buy perfect brackets that reach the final 4....probability would be 0.5^3 assuming all four teams have an equal chance of winning, which wont be the case of course.....I wonder what the buy price would be form Warren? assuming you have Florida or Arizona with a percent final 4 bracket picked? Of course the other 3 teams matter and who you have winning the other final 4 game.....
I will sell mine for 10 mil
Quote: vert1276I hear Buffet is willing to buy perfect brackets that reach the final 4....probability would be 0.5^3 assuming all four teams have an equal chance of winning, which wont be the case of course.....I wonder what the buy price would be form Warren? assuming you have Florida or Arizona with a percent final 4 bracket picked? Of course the other 3 teams matter and who you have winning the other final 4 game.....
He did say on Seth Meyers early this week he would take anybody still in it by then to the Final Four and sit with them. I suspect he would make the buyout offer then. I'd go. Dunno if I'd take a buyout, but it would have to rank as the ultimate gamble not to.
And you know the teams would know a billion dollars is on the line. What kind of pressure is that?
He also said they (his insurance division) insured the event for Quicken Loans, but did not say for how much. And he denied they used the quintillion odds to calculate it, given seeding, but again did not say what numbers his actuaries used.
Quote: beachbumbabsHe did say on Seth Meyers early this week he would take anybody still in it by then to the Final Four and sit with them. I suspect he would make the buyout offer then. I'd go. Dunno if I'd take a buyout, but it would have to rank as the ultimate gamble not to.
And you know the teams would know a billion dollars is on the line. What kind of pressure is that?
I don't have the bankroll to turn down anything within an order of magnitude of a fair price.
If you do, you should change your name to moneybagsbabs! :D
BTW on a serious note... RESTRICTED to the first FIFTEEN MILLION entries... since March 3rd, 2014.
I wonder how I'll know if its "Officially Closed"?
Quote: vert1276how could you "enter" if you didn't even know what teams were in the tourny till today?
I reserved my place 4 days ago, and they gave me a username and a password. I have 4 more days to work on it/deadline Mar 20. But I'm in the first 15 million. I wonder if it will fill up? Guessing it will.
I think I'd have a hard time negotiating with Warren Buffett about fair value on a buyout on a freeroll bet. How awkward would that be? "No, Mr. Oracle of Omaha. I just don't see how I can accept $100MM as fair value on the free bet you've offered me. Please give me $200MM. That's just pocket change to you anyway..."
Quote: endermikeI was told you had to fill out some survey information to enter for the big prize. Is this true? If so how long did it take?
It's sponsored by Quicken Loans. There were only a few questions: do you own a home, are you looking to buy a home, what is your current interest rate, do you want us to contact you about financing... it took about 30 seconds to enter the info, I suppose.
Quote: SOOPOOMy son is at Missouri. They lost as a number 2 seed. 8/9 beating number one is probably 20%. I'd guess your chance at around 1 out of (2 to the 58th power).
Really? I thought you lived in the East. He a journalism major or something? :P
As a Mizzou alum, I am well-versed in Mizzou choking. Heck we couldn't even make the NCAA Tourney this year...
M-I-Z...N-I-T!!!
Quote: beachbumbabsHe did say on Seth Meyers early this week he would take anybody still in it by then to the Final Four and sit with them. I suspect he would make the buyout offer then. I'd go. Dunno if I'd take a buyout, but it would have to rank as the ultimate gamble not to.
I don't know your personal financial status, but I'd bet that if you got the first 66 (or 63, idk if the games on Tues and Wed count in this) games right, and thus were at a "Win a billion or win nothing" scenario, that you'd certainly take the buyout. There's been talk that the offer would be 100 million. But even if it were some ridiculously unfair offer like 5 million, don't you have to take anything that would change your life? I'm saying if Buffets buyout offer were your only other option besides letting it ride..
And yes I know that the moneyline on the final game would dictate what the fair buyout offer is, but I can't see anyone getting that far and risking no win at all.
You have a perfect bracket leading into the final game and the team you selected to win is a 3 point favorite.
The fair number would probably be about $750 million.
What is the absolute bottom dollar you would accept for a buyout assuming you couldn't cut any deals with any third parties?
My number is $100 million, if the offer was less than that I would gamble.
Quote: DRichMy scenario:
You have a perfect bracket leading into the final game and the team you selected to win is a 3 point favorite.
The fair number would probably be about $750 million.
What is the absolute bottom dollar you would accept for a buyout assuming you couldn't cut any deals with any third parties?
My number is $100 million, if the offer was less than that I would gamble.
$5 million
Quote: DRichMy scenario:
You have a perfect bracket leading into the final game and the team you selected to win is a 3 point favorite.
The fair number would probably be about $750 million.
What is the absolute bottom dollar you would accept for a buyout assuming you couldn't cut any deals with any third parties?
Before answering that, I would buy a ticket to Vegas and find out how much I could bet on the other team. The only problem might be, if the single-casino limit isn't particularly high, I wouldn't be able to bet too much before the other casinos got wind of it and ended up making the underdog the favorite. (Well, there's another problem - I have only two days in which to make these bets.)
Personally I don't think it's worth the 25 cents, or whatever it is, of EV to give Quicken all the personal info they require to sign up.
Quote: DRichMy scenario:
You have a perfect bracket leading into the final game and the team you selected to win is a 3 point favorite.
The fair number would probably be about $750 million.
What is the absolute bottom dollar you would accept for a buyout assuming you couldn't cut any deals with any third parties?
My number is $100 million, if the offer was less than that I would gamble.
You must have a lot of money then because I would be quite happy with 5-10 mil. I would even accept 1 mil right before tip off.
Quote: GWAEYou must have a lot of money then because I would be quite happy with 5-10 mil. I would even accept 1 mil right before tip off.
No, I do not. I just don't think I could give away more than $650 million in expected value. I would feel more foolish giving away that much expected value than I would by losing $10 million. Personally, I feel like Buffet would offer a very fair buyout offer closer to $500 million.
Quote: DRichNo, I do not. I just don't think I could give away more than $650 million in expected value. I would feel more foolish giving away that much expected value than I would by losing $10 million. Personally, I feel like Buffet would offer a very fair buyout offer closer to $500 million.
I would make an honest assessment of my net worth and apply the Kelly Criterion.
Quote: DRichNo, I do not. I just don't think I could give away more than $650 million in expected value. I would feel more foolish giving away that much expected value than I would by losing $10 million. Personally, I feel like Buffet would offer a very fair buyout offer closer to $500 million.
That would be pretty smart of him. The bracket pay off is underwritten by an insurance company so Buffet buys the bracket and can leverage the difference between his cost for the policy and the result.
Quote: tringlomaneReally? I thought you lived in the East. He a journalism major or something? :P
As a Mizzou alum, I am well-versed in Mizzou choking. Heck we couldn't even make the NCAA Tourney this year...
M-I-Z...N-I-T!!!
He was a journalism major when he started.... It's why he picked Mizzou... He graduates in May with a degree in Information Technology, whatever that means!
I believe so. They texted me a 5 digit code which I then entered to activate my bracket. In my case it didn't even work.... I couldn't 'drag' the teams so as of now they have my number and I have no bracket! I'll try again later...Quote: AxiomOfChoiceDo they require you to give them your real number?
Quote: SOOPOOI believe so. They texted me a 5 digit code which I then entered to activate my bracket. In my case it didn't even work.... I couldn't 'drag' the teams so as of now they have my number and I have no bracket! I'll try again later...
I entered and I recall double clicking on the team. Not dragging.
Quote: geoffThat would be pretty smart of him. The bracket pay off is underwritten by an insurance company so Buffet buys the bracket and can leverage the difference between his cost for the policy and the result.
Buffet owns the insurance company that is underwriting the promo for Quicken. He already said in an interview that he would be willing to offer a buyout if anyone makes it all the way to the Final Four with a perfect bracket. He also said he would take that person to the Final Four and sit with them for the games.
