If Denver scores 30 or more points, denver will win the Super Bowl.
Go Denver. I bet ,so far, $100 on Denver to win out right, no spread.
Also I bet Thomas and Moreno to score a TD and Thomas to score the first TD at 11-1 for $10.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI wonder if just bucking these massive favorites is enough for a strategy if done just blindly on this information.
Seattles got several tight games within a TD. They have their defense to hold off opponents. Manning is a scoring machine and he can score. I think defense can do so much. If Seattles falls behind by 2 TD, then Seattles will have to go to the air for TD and save the clock. Passing is not exactly Seattles strength. One thing, Denver held off N.E. for 16 points. That is really something.
I don't think Seattles O-Fence is quite up to a 30 handle. Thats why we see the lines and spreads. The Gen. Public thinks Denver can be held to less than 31 and Seattle can cover. Lets say 30-28 or 30-27. For me Seattle has to keep Denver 28 or less, to be in it to win it.
An interesting prop and post.
Quote: speedycrapSeattles got several tight games within a TD. They have their defense to hold off opponents. Manning is a scoring machine and he can score. I think defense can do so much. If Seattles falls behind by 2 TD, then Seattles will have to go to the air for TD and save the clock. Passing is not exactly Seattles strength. One thing, Denver held off N.E. for 16 points. That is really something.
And they shut out San Diego for the first three quarters. The Denver defense suffered all year from key suspensions and injuries. Except for Von Miller, it looks like they are back in working order.
Quote: mickeycrimmAnd they shut out San Diego for the first three quarters. The Denver defense suffered all year from key suspensions and injuries. Except for Von Miller, it looks like they are back in working order.
That couldn't be further from the truth. Excluding Von Miller (who is huge), the Broncos still have 4 players on the IR who were first string on the defensive depth chart at the beginning of the year (Kevin Vickerson; Derek Wolfe; Chris Harris, Jr.; Rahim Moore). Moore could technically play in the Super Bowl were he healthy, since he is their one player on the "IR/Designated for Return" list. But given that he hasn't practiced yet, I doubt he'll play.
Now the "next guys up" have been playing pretty well, and Seattle's offense is pretty terrible so they may indeed limit the damage enough to win the Super Bowl. But saying that they are "back in working order" is just not true, based on my interpretation of that statement.
Seattle can not afford to give Manning any help in scoring.
which would mean something like a 24-23 game.
Seattle played the 10th most diffucult schedule based on won/loss records
Denver played the absolute weakest schedule
I am not a fan of either team. I would like to see manning win based on the "nice guy" angle. But I will probably go with seattle.
X factors could be
the officials--will they let the teams play or will they call alot of penalties......tightly called game favors denver
seattles inexperience-- will sattle have the "deer in the headlights" syndrome? I know manning wont. He has been there before.
Wilson- will he run. They have been holding him back....but now its the last game...does he scramble and pick up alot of rushing yards.....he has had games like that in the past.
But then again......here is a big key that may make me change my mind
Seattle is not good at stopping the run. Arizona ran at will and beat seattle in seattle. Well let me clarify...seatle can stop the run like they did against SF...if they stack the box and dare a QB that they feel is inferior to beat them. They stacked the box against gore and dared kapernick to beat them Kapernick almot did. If it wasnt for 3 turnovers. I dont think Manning will have 3 turnovers. So I think seattle will try to stop manning by covering his receivers well. They cant stack the box.
They might rush only 3. So can the denver running game be successful? I dont know much about it. Does anyone have a comment? Does denver have a good running game against a good defense?
Quote: LarrySSeattle is not good at stopping the run. Arizona ran at will and beat seattle in seattle. Well let me clarify...seatle can stop the run like they did against SF...if they stack the box and dare a QB that they feel is inferior to beat them. They stacked the box against gore and dared kapernick to beat them Kapernick almot did. If it wasnt for 3 turnovers. I dont think Manning will have 3 turnovers. So I think seattle will try to stop manning by covering his receivers well. They cant stack the box.
They might rush only 3. So can the denver running game be successful? I dont know much about it. Does anyone have a comment? Does denver have a good running game against a good defense?
Denver has a good, borderline great O-Line this year, and enough role players at RB to make it work. Usually with defenses having to respect the passing game, they find some holes. But against Seattle's defense, it's going to be rough. So basically, I don't have a comment to add other than "it's going to be close." Hehe. I'm a Denver fan but trying to look at it objectively.
Quote: LarrySI dont think Manning will have 3 turnovers.
Manning by himself may not, but I think Seattle is good for at least +2 in the takeaway battle overall. You know how many Super Bowls have been won by teams with a -2 turnover differential or worse? Only two.
I also think Seattle wins the punt/kick runback battle. Percy Harvin is back, and Harvin + Tate > Holliday.
Quote: MathExtremistManning by himself may not, but I think Seattle is good for at least +2 in the takeaway battle overall. You know how many Super Bowls have been won by teams with a -2 turnover differential or worse? Only two.
I also think Seattle wins the punt/kick runback battle. Percy Harvin is back, and Harvin + Tate > Holliday.
I tend to agree. Manning is not immune to throwing an intercetion in a big game. It happened before. And denver playing the weakest schedule may not have met a defense like this all year. So they arent battle tested in that respect.
Meanwhile on the flip side, seattle met new orleans twice(granted at home)..and has met the challenge of holding a good offense down.
I am still leaning towards seattle.
I am looking foward to seeing if they use wilson legs. He is so quick. He is even quciker than kapernick at the start(once kapernick starts running his strides are longer and he makes up more ground....but for a burst of speed at the beginning, wilson is better)
There is a prop....wilson over/under 35.5.....I think he will exceed this. Just a gut feeling. Not based on analysis. Last game of the season, they dont have to save him...on a designed or broken play..I think he runs well on sunday. It could be the difference in the game.
Quote: steeldcoFWIW, I understand the simulation run in Madden has Denver winning by 3 in overtime and the total going over. I also understand that the Madden simulations have had a reasonably good record.
Also, it is assuming that the sports talk show that I was listening to provide accurate facts. Please confirm accuracy before trying to use any of it.
Quote: LarrySThere is a prop....wilson over/under 35.5.....I think he will exceed this. Just a gut feeling. Not based on analysis. Last game of the season, they dont have to save him...on a designed or broken play..I think he runs well on sunday. It could be the difference in the game.
I assume you mean rushing yards; if so, that figure is barely over his season average. Given what's at stake, I can certainly see a few designed QB runs thrown in later in the game. If I were going to put money on it, I'd take the over.
Quote: LarryS
There is a prop....wilson over/under 35.5.....I think he will exceed this. Just a gut feeling. Not based on analysis. Last game of the season, they dont have to save him...on a designed or broken play..I think he runs well on sunday. It could be the difference in the game.
The sample size is limited, his average (Regular Season) rushing yards per game is 32.1, so could be good if you think they'll turn him loose. Unfortunately, the frequency is 10/32 games for the OVER.
I wouldn't bet it either way at Even Money, because I agree that they would be willing to turn him lose on a designed run, but I think it would only be if they were behind late in the game. Carroll might even tell him to Scramble in a limited way, don't want to lose the starting QB in Q1 of SB, but you never know with Carroll.
Denver played the absolute weakest schedule**
Really? Another person said Seattle had second easiest. Denver played KC and NE and Indy. They also got the woeful NFC east. However, Seattle got a bunch of chumps too.
I guess the spread is good because there are a lot of Seattle apologists acting as if they're the 2001 Ravens or something, whereas I see the spread as giving Denver no respect. Denver +2TD.
I will say the Wilson prop is interesting, it seems like running QB's get a big run in once every playoff game while in the regular season, maybe not so much.
Quote: Mission146The sample size is limited, his average (Regular Season) rushing yards per game is 32.1, so could be good if you think they'll turn him loose. Unfortunately, the frequency is 10/32 games for the OVER.
I wouldn't bet it either way at Even Money, because I agree that they would be willing to turn him lose on a designed run, but I think it would only be if they were behind late in the game. Carroll might even tell him to Scramble in a limited way, don't want to lose the starting QB in Q1 of SB, but you never know with Carroll.
Alot of the prop bets are bet on how people "feel" the game will unfold. If people think denver will dominate, then there are a bunch of bets with manning going over certain yardage, and number of attempted passes, and number of completed passes, and number of touchdowns...that will automatically be bet "over". by those folks.And if denver does indeed dominate...then all those bets would be winners.
I am not a fan of either team....but I have seen many seattle games on TV (in sf, they show the seattle games when the niners are off on sundays) and i think seattle has the advantage over broncos in 3 areas....defense, running game, and QB mobility threat. My guess they are going to try to exploit all three.
Even if there are only 1 or 2 designed plays....wilson can rin 20-30 yards on a broken play easily.
this is not a mathematical analysis...just a gut feeling based on past performace coupled with the unique importance of this last game of the year. "pulling out all the stops" may mean wilson runs.
"may" is the key word
Quote: UTHfan**Seattle played the 10th most diffucult schedule based on won/loss records
Denver played the absolute weakest schedule**
Really? Another person said Seattle had second easiest. Denver played KC and NE and Indy. They also got the woeful NFC east. However, Seattle got a bunch of chumps too.
I guess the spread is good because there are a lot of Seattle apologists acting as if they're the 2001 Ravens or something, whereas I see the spread as giving Denver no respect. Denver +2TD.
I will say the Wilson prop is interesting, it seems like running QB's get a big run in once every playoff game while in the regular season, maybe not so much.
http://www.theredzone.org/Features/NFLStrengthofSchedule.aspx
Quote: LarryS
I am not a fan of either team....but I have seen many seattle games on TV (in sf, they show the seattle games when the niners are off on sundays) and i think seattle has the advantage over broncos in 3 areas....defense, running game, and QB mobility threat. My guess they are going to try to exploit all three.
Even if there are only 1 or 2 designed plays....wilson can rin 20-30 yards on a broken play easily.
this is not a mathematical analysis...just a gut feeling based on past performace coupled with the unique importance of this last game of the year. "pulling out all the stops" may mean wilson runs.
"may" is the key word
I tend to agree with you, and again, the sample size on this one is too limited to be very meaningful, and some of the games where he didn't run, that might be part of the game plan that we wouldn't really know one way or another.
I'm going to tell you what I like, I think Denver is going to be sending that Blitz to try not to give him any time to make something happen, but that's going to expose the secondary to a 1on1 type situation with him if he escapes the rush and breaks a run, that gives him a chance to pick up twenty on a non-designed run, and probably ten. Do that a few times, and it's looking really good.
Again, the statistics say it sucks, but it's limited and could be skewed towards the under with game planning, didn't he also have a concussion last year, or was that someone else?
Ultimately, I agree with your feeling that it could be a good bet, but not enough that I would put out any action at Even Money.
Quote: LarrySSo can the denver running game be successful? I dont know much about it. Does anyone have a comment? Does denver have a good running game against a good defense?
Denver has an excellent rookie running back named Knowshawn Moreno. He knows how to find the hole and he doesn't fumble..
Quote: mickeycrimmDenver has an excellent rookie running back named Knowshawn Moreno. He knows how to find the hole and he doesn't fumble..
Erm, he's a 5th year player. He fell out of favour in the two previous seasons, and had some injury issues. He took back the number 1 job this year over Hillman and Ball. They've got options at back, and Moreno can also do business as an outlet passing option.
Checking the stats, he has 1 fumble on the year. The Running Game for the Broncos is effective on it's own, and helps set up the passing game. The Broncos aren't one dimensional, and they can lean on the running game if they need to close it out.
Quote: mickeycrimmDenver has an excellent rookie running back named Knowshawn Moreno. He knows how to find the hole and he doesn't fumble..
Close Mickey very Close. Moreno is not a rookie. Had he not been hurt in Raven's playoff game, Denver might have gotten a first down late in the game on 2 different 3rd and short yardage.
Montee Ball ( ROOKIE ) is his back-up this year. He fumbled 3 times in early games, but not since then. Holds the Division 1 NCAA record for most touchdowns scored at 83, most TD scores as a running back at 77. He has been a pleasant surprise blocking in pass protection also.
Montee is one of my keys in selecting Denver to win.
Quote: BuzzardClose Mickey very Close. Moreno is not a rookie. Had he not been hurt in Raven's playoff game, Denver might have gotten a first down late in the game on 2 different 3rd and short yardage. Montee Ball ( ROOKIE ) is his back-up this year. He fumbled 3 times in early games, but not since then. Holds the Division 1 NCAA record for most touchdowns scored at 83, most TD scores as a running back at 77. He has been a pleasant surprise blocking in pass protection also. Montee is one of my keys in selecting Denver to win.
Buzz, I thought I knew football. But you guys are putting me to shame. I'm just a Manning fan. Just like I was an Elway fan. I think Elway showed a ton of guts and class bringing Peyton to Denver.
Then he won 2 back-to-back. Just like all this BS about Brady vs Manning. Gee, who had the better team when they played before ? DUH !!!
Quote: BuzzardMost football fans are stupid. I remember the big knock on Elway for many years was he could not win the big games.
Then he won 2 back-to-back. Just like all this BS about Brady vs Manning. Gee, who had the better team when they played before ? DUH !!!
+1
Elway knows from losing and winning, getting Peyton Manning on the team took cajones and a few dollars. I respect that a lot.
Quote: 98ClubsAlso +1 Elway # 4th Qtr in big spots. Earned both trophies. One of the most exciting QB's in Football. Denver was never out of a game if he QB'ed. IIRC he went to the Super Bowl 4 times. He stands with any QB that can say the same including Kelly, despite his 0/5.
Elway knows from losing and winning, getting Peyton Manning on the team took cajones and a few dollars. I respect that a lot.
You've got that backwards; Elway went to 5 superbowls and won 2. Jim Kelly went to 4 superbowls and lost all of them.
