Wizard
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Wizard
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January 22nd, 2014 at 9:06:06 PM permalink
Quote: reno

Check out the YouTube video on this page.



I'd be interested to know how he calculated the 1 in 128 billion figure.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
sodawater
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January 22nd, 2014 at 9:12:26 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: reno

Check out the YouTube video on this page.



I'd be interested to know how he calculated the 1 in 128 billion figure.



1 in 128 billion is (1999/3000)^63

My guess is he just estimated 2/3 chance of winning each game based on basketball knowledge -- for picking the winner of 63 games.
tringlomane
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January 22nd, 2014 at 10:47:32 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Quote: Wizard

Quote: reno

Check out the YouTube video on this page.



I'd be interested to know how he calculated the 1 in 128 billion figure.



1 in 128 billion is (1999/3000)^63

My guess is he just estimated 2/3 chance of winning each game based on basketball knowledge -- for picking the winner of 63 games.



Roughly, I assume. Your guess is basically the same thing I wrote in the other thread about this:

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/16679-buffett-offers-1-billion-for-perfect-ncaa-bracket/#post316127

But you would have to ask him to be sure, the makers of the video probably told him to cut out the details just like the Phoenix TV station cut out Wiz's details on good video poker.

Jeffrey Bergen: jbergen@depaul.edu

If you wrote him Wiz, I would hopefully expect him to respond. Personally I don't think either your or his estimate is bad unless you have a lot more data to crunch.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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January 23rd, 2014 at 12:53:59 AM permalink
So what happens when the final 4 are known, and somebody's still in it? With a billion dollars on the line? It would make the Black Sox look like peanuts.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
sodawater
sodawater
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January 23rd, 2014 at 12:56:13 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

So what happens when the final 4 are known, and somebody's still in it? With a billion dollars on the line? It would make the Black Sox look like peanuts.



Considering that would be about 37 billion to 1, I don't think we have to worry about it.
Tomspur
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January 23rd, 2014 at 12:57:44 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Considering that would be about 37 billion to 1, I don't think we have to worry about it.



Ye of little faith :)
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odiousgambit
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January 23rd, 2014 at 3:37:25 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: reno

Check out the YouTube video on this page.



I'd be interested to know how he calculated the 1 in 128 billion figure.



I wonder if he bought insurance, and how much it cost.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
GWAE
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January 23rd, 2014 at 4:06:33 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Wizard

Quote: reno

Check out the YouTube video on this page.



I'd be interested to know how he calculated the 1 in 128 billion figure.



I wonder if he bought insurance, and how much it cost.



that was discussed on the 1st page of this thread.
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steeldco
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January 23rd, 2014 at 4:30:40 AM permalink
BTW, I believe that I read that they are giving away $100K in prizes to the top 20 pickers so give it a go.
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odiousgambit
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January 23rd, 2014 at 7:07:31 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

that was discussed on the 1st page of this thread.



No one came up with a figure, though. Unless my vision has gotten even more pathetic.

From "ask the wizard" on another issue, http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/284/

Quote:

Probability of [the event] = 2.71%. To be exact, 0.0271275.

Given that the dealership would have had to pay [X amount] in the event of [this event], the fair cost of the policy would have been [X amount] × 0.0271275



1 in 128 billion = 0.0000000000078125

1 000 000 000 * 0.0000000000078125 = 0.0078125

So the answer seems to be that the risk is so minimal, insurance is laughable. However, bear in mind I often screw these things up.

PS: it occurs to me that 128 billion submissions would change everything, or even submissions in the millions too. So, I guess it was smart to limit it to one per household.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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