week 17 thought
i think ariz wins outright. That is not going out on a big limb since the spread is about a point.
But SF is going to try to run, and Ariz will stop it. Arizona stayed with SF in SF till the last minutes. It was a very close game.
ariz is a much better team at home, and has beaten some good teams.
SF was very lucky to beat a poor atlanta team...played well for about 25 minutes. This wont cut it in playoff atmosphere football.
In order to win, SF will have to play a complete game for 4 qtrs...SOMETHING THEY RARELY DO.
i am going with ariz.
i like packers to cover too.
Quote: AyecarumbaEven if Arizona beats San Fran, they will still miss the playoffs when the Saints beat the Bucs. This could put a damper on the Cardinal's enthusiasm in the fourth quarter if the Saints are blowing out the Bucs. Also, the Niner's did beat the Seahawks. I think they win on Sunday and go into the playoffs with a seven game win streak.
and arizona did beat the seahawks.....in seattle. Where the 49ers lost by over 20.
Buffalo beat miami in buffalo last week and buffalo had absolutely nothing to play for. So the theory that if arizona has nothing to play for in the fourth qtr...they are going to give up on the hard work of the first 3 qtrs and lay down is not something I subscribe to
we will see...its just an opinion
If seattle is up by 21 by halftime....maybe the same could be said for SF performance
Quote: LarrySand arizona did beat the seahawks.....in seattle. Where the 49ers lost by over 20.
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Trying to use transitive property analysis in sports betting is useless.
But heres one... The Eagles beat the Bears last week 54-11, and the Bears beat the Cowboys two weeks ago 45-28,
Therefore the Eagles should beat the Cowboys by __ ?
Quote: michael99000Trying to use transitive property analysis in sports betting is useless.
But heres one... The Eagles beat the Bears last week 54-11, and the Bears beat the Cowboys two weeks ago 45-28,
Therefore the Eagles should beat the Cowboys by __ ?
one of my main rules of sports betting, is that when 2 bad teams play each other....dont even attempt to figure out which one is the best of the worst.
so obviously I wouldnt but any weight in those results.
so no surprise..i wont be betting on giants. skins, or tenn/tx or minny/det...nor could I even extrapolate any info from those games for future games
so a bears/ cowboys game...with 2 of the most horrible defenses in the league...is not a game where I can gain any info...nor would I even try.
However the fact is sf has no wins on the road this year over a winning team.
And the fact that arizona gave them a hard time in SF....is what forms my opinion.
personally I dont think the seattle games come into play, I was just responding to someone who did
Beating 11/10 is a bitch.
Quote: KeyserSozeWhatever stat anyone throws out is already factored into the point spread. And the point spread is the great equalizer.
Beating 11/10 is a bitch.
Are you one of those who think that the number that "the man" throws out is a factual number as if handed down by god?
Its funny when people watch a game and the game falls very close to the number..they proclaim how accurate "the man" is ..he is really on the ball.
But when the final score is way off....its not the mans fault...its some other factor.
I won over 600 on a 25 dollar pleaser last week based on "the mans" faulty lines.
sometimes "the man" doesnt do a good job "factoring". not surprising...hes only human
and sometimes I dont do a good job recognizing all the faulty lines...i am only human
Take note of the line you got on your bet vs. the closing line at kickoff, tipoff, first pitch, whatever.
If you got a better line more often than you didn't, you've got a chance to profit long term. A chance.
Quote: michael99000Trying to use transitive property analysis in sports betting is useless.
But heres one... The Eagles beat the Bears last week 54-11, and the Bears beat the Cowboys two weeks ago 45-28,
Therefore the Eagles should beat the Cowboys by __ ?
Sixty. Which is certainly possible with a Romo less Dallas offense. Hehe... if Romo was playing maybe 63
And to automatically bow to a possiblyflawed number, and view it as fair/accurate/factual.....is in itself a flawed.
Also on sunday I will make a small bet on an odd type angle.
The tennesse game...both teams out of it.
In my oppinion the offense is the easier side of the ball. So maybe defenses wont give it their all. Also possibly the 2 teams will take chances to score. 4th and 2 at midfield...may not be a punt. It will either be a first down toward possibly scoring..ot will leave the opposition in great field position to score if the 4th down fails.
I have no stats on this situation over the years so I am not suggesting anyone else follow this .
I realize players on both sides of the ball are playing for their jobs, but it is also the 16th game of the season
Quote: LarryS
And to automatically bow to a possiblyflawed number, and view it as fair/accurate/factual.....is in itself a flawed.
Every time someone places a bet on a game , isn't that bettor essentially saying he thinks the point spread is wrong?
I think the dogs have value this week unless you think there are some teams that are just going to roll over and die.
Look on this board..."i hate the eagles".."I am from denver" "i hate romo"......hatred of a team. love of a location often fuel bets.
And then there are some people who bet a perceived advantage based on a differential from the board that appears on a parlay card.
And then there are many bets where people think the point spread is right, but will bet the ML or teaser.
so no, I dont agree that EVERYTIME someone places a bet...they are saying the mans number is wrong.
Quote: PokeraddictWeek 17 is a week that I feel underdogs get way too far out of proportion. Should TB really be +13 @ NO? Should AZ really be a home dog? Bills +9.5??? I would not be jumping on the Rodgers bandwagon either.
I think the dogs have value this week unless you think there are some teams that are just going to roll over and die.
New Orleans is in a must win game. They are 7-0 at home and beat opposing teams by an average of 17 points. That includes some good teams like Arizona, Carolina, San Francisco, Miami...I'm taking the saints and I'm a die hard Carinals fan praying for a Saints loss.
Ask the folks in SF what its like for a QB to lose its number one receiver....as they did with crabtree for the first 10 games.
Indy beat SF and Seattle, with reggie wayne....and since then without reggie wayne they couldnt beat, STLouis., arizona, and cincy.
yes brady handles lack of receivers, but he has much more experience. I dont thibnk brady would handle a descimated recwiving corp in his 3rd year.
Quote: tournamentkingBesides the Patriots, since Brady owns Peyton Manning, the only team capable of stopping the Broncos is Seattle...if the SB were to be played in Seattle. Away, the Seahawks are just another good team. With the up & down way the Pats are playing with the league's most injury- devastated team, they'll never make it to the AFC championship game in Denver, but if they somehow do, Manning and all his greedy passing records are toast. But watch out for Indy. It's time for that excellent team who beat SF, Denver, and Seattle to step into the spotlight. I can see the headlines now: ANDREW LUCK WINS THE SUPER BOWL, WHILE PEYTON IS STILL BLAMING EVERYONE ON HIS TEAM BUT HIMSELF.
Manning deflects praise and accepts all the responsibility for his teams losses. He's playing amazingly well for a 37 year old quarterback. The passing records have put a lot of points on the board. The broncos weakness is the amount of points the defense gives up.
Quote: PokeraddictPanthers D would overwhelm Broncos. Seattle would probably do same thing has Seattle has better offense to go with it. Broncos are not invincible.
i dont know about "overwhelm"....but I do respect defense in the playoffs.
Both superbowl loses of brady against ther giants were because the giants had the superior defense.
conversely, brady's first superbowl win was because HE had the best defense over STL which had the leagues best offense at the time...in fact the pats were 14 pt dogs.
Quote: BeardgoatNew Orleans is in a must win game. They are 7-0 at home and beat opposing teams by an average of 17 points. That includes some good teams like Arizona, Carolina, San Francisco, Miami...I'm taking the saints and I'm a die hard Carinals fan praying for a Saints loss.
Obviously I did not have a good day, worst one for the season.
