week 15 nfl

the game I am nitially looking at and bringing up for discussion is NO at STL

i have been roding the N0 home covering streak all season, but have sayed away from them on the road, knowing they are a different team on the road.
So although I haveNT lost any money on road no..i HAVENT MADE ANY MONEY EITHER.

I believe no is 1-5 ats on the road, and 1-4 ats vist STL recently.

I have read earlier this week 85 percent of the action is on NO

add on top of it all NO crushed carolina last weel.....initially it looks like NO can cover 5.5...especially since STL has not scored 14 pts each of the last 2 weeks.

bit then again on the road NO was hammered by NJ.

here is a back angle though.

when rob ryan was let go by dallas.....STL picked him up. He was on campus of stl doing some work while the contract was being developed. It was not signed yet

Coach payton calls ryan and convinces him to come to NO......ryan goes in STL coaches office and drops keys on his desk and walks out.

does anyone put any weight into this type of possible "vendetta" angle?

anyway.....all comments pro or con are welcome

as you can probably tell I am leaning heavily to taking the points with STL

Don't most point spread outcomes boil down to an unknowable play or two? Betting on football is fun but jesus how can anybody figure out a game ATS? If I take NO you'll be safe taking the points with STL.

Quote: treetopbuddy

Don't most point spread outcomes boil down to an unknowable play or two? Betting on football is fun but jesus how can anybody figure out a game ATS? If I take NO you'll be safe taking the points with STL.

No the average football game has 125 plays. That involves 125 offensive plays and the 125 matching defensive plays. Out of those 250 opportunities of each team to make a difference in the final score......one or 2 plays are just that...one or 2 plays. There are many other plays on offense and defense that go into the final score that are less publicized. If you watch the highlights of a game and see a handful of plays, you would think they were the only plays that were important.

A holding penalty in the first qtr that takes a team out of feild goal range and ultimately forcesd a punt, helps prevent a score from goving over just as much as a last second missed field goal. In fact that penalty taking a team out of field goal range helps prevent the over in 2 respects...it takes a potential 3 points away from one team, and then backs the other team way back to the goal line...as time ticks away. But people will focus on the final missed field goal and say "it all comes down to the last play"....wellnot really.

Your example of the penalty taking the team out of field goal range is just one of many unforeseen events that happen within a game. Tipped passes being intercepted, fumbles, a missed block, player slips on a cut, bad ref call, bad coach call, dropped pass, caught pass off a tip, backdoor touchdowns, team taking knee when game has been won, injured key player......on and on.

It's fun to work the angles but as a former sport bettor I came to the conclusion that way too many things were out of my control. Betting against the spread was impossible for me. Too many random events within a game.

Don't most point spread outcomes boil down to an unknowable play or two?>>>

out of 250 plays I dont see how 1 or 2 events can be said to determine a game.

On the 18th play of the game, some no name defensive lineman gets injured. Then on the 80th play of the game his replacement alows a gaping hole because he is not as good, or doesnt have the stamina to play an entire game,......has an impact. That 18th play had a big effect on the game. Or if a team is very physical for 3 quarters on defense....and then the cumulative effect on the offensive line tires out in the fourth qtr...then the previous plays cumulatively had a big impact on the game.

So I dont view it coming down to "a play or 2".

I dont pretend to be able to forsee the future either

However I do think I can sometimes recognize a line that may be off a little and bet it, so that I am less effected by the bounce of a ball on one play.

Have reliable bookies in every major city and bet against the home team using the local books. The "homers" overvalue their teams for a myriad of reasons. Betting against UK Wildcats in basketball with local bookie is profitable most years. Example UK vs.Tennessee might be UK -10 in Vegas but would be UK --12 or -13 in Lexington. The Holy Grail has just been released!

I've been all over the Stl/No game. I've been to teamrankings, ESPN, CBS. I've looked at the stat sheets.

For me it come down t whether or not the difference in total offensive yards 75 yard plus for NO results in a touchdown or field goal. Late game scenario is that NO gets the ball for a KO or punt. If KO, the current rules favor a start at own 20. Add 75 yard, and we get a 15 yard FG for the win. If a punt, it's either from midfield or near the 30. STL average punt plus NO average kick return gives NO the ball between the 25 and 40. Add the 75 yard difference, and we get 6 points.

I'm learning towards lottery tickets this week...

Good Luck!

Quote: wroberson

I've been all over the Stl/No game. I've been to teamrankings, ESPN, CBS. I've looked at the stat sheets.

For me it come down t whether or not the difference in total offensive yards 75 yard plus for NO results in a touchdown or field goal. Late game scenario is that NO gets the ball for a KO or punt. If KO, the current rules favor a start at own 20. Add 75 yard, and we get a 15 yard FG for the win. If a punt, it's either from midfield or near the 30. STL average punt plus NO average kick return gives NO the ball between the 25 and 40. Add the 75 yard difference, and we get 6 points.

I'm learning towards lottery tickets this week...

Good Luck!

I am not sure how you use those 75 yards. Couldnt a team score an extra 75 years throughout the game by getting to the 50 yard line alot and punting when they are not scoring. And the opponent when they are not on scoring drives gets to the 30 yardline and punts.
There is nothing that says that the extra 75 yeard comes in on one single drive...does it?
Just trying to understand.

Definitely. 1-2 yards more per play could easily happen and not lead to scoring.

Red zone scoring percentages 46% for NO and 34% for STL. Edit this was 3rd down conversion. The rz scoring is 56% to 55%.

I'm done here.