March Madness 2014
March 21st, 2014 at 6:02:50 AM
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SOOPOO, so you are in Buffalo? I did a little bit of work for Pratt & Lambert back in the day........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 21st, 2014 at 8:20:21 AM
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Did anyone happen to catch the last game of the night, San Diego State vs New Mexico State? New Mexico State had a guy that was just a monster. 7'5", 375lbs. He literally looked like a Giant out there even playing against kids that were 6'10". He would have towered over Shaq. If I was SDS, I would have run him up and down the court, even though that is not their style. As it was, he got winded pretty easy and had get a lot of rest. Funny thing was they showed his 'little' brother on the bench who is a red shirt freshman. Little brother is 7'3", and 335 pounds. lol
March 21st, 2014 at 9:40:41 AM
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Dumb question: I'm about to make my first March Madness bet. If UL-Lafayette is being given 14 points against Creighton, what is the fair moneyline and what are the respective probabilities to win? 538.com has Creighton 88% ULL 12%. Just wondering if it is a good bet. (ULL with the points).
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
March 21st, 2014 at 10:03:55 AM
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Quote: steeldcoSOOPOO, so you are in Buffalo? I did a little bit of work for Pratt & Lambert back in the day........
Yep. Live in the suburbs, work in the city.
March 21st, 2014 at 10:22:02 AM
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Quote: teddysDumb question: I'm about to make my first March Madness bet. If UL-Lafayette is being given 14 points against Creighton, what is the fair moneyline and what are the respective probabilities to win? 538.com has Creighton 88% ULL 12%. Just wondering if it is a good bet. (ULL with the points).
teddys,
Not a dumb question. Go, Bluejays! I would still take the points and ULL; I think it's going to be close but a Creighton win. They have a way of getting the first-game jitters. JMHO as an alumnus.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
March 21st, 2014 at 10:42:10 AM
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Quote: beachbumbabsteddys,
Not a dumb question. Go, Bluejays! I would still take the points and ULL; I think it's going to be close but a Creighton win. They have a way of getting the first-game jitters. JMHO as an alumnus.
I agree with that assessment. I could see this being a close game heading into the last 5 minutes. ULL very solid team
March 21st, 2014 at 10:52:20 AM
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Okay. I made a large bet stating this. Thanks for the intel beachbumbabs. This is money I really can't afford to lose! (j/k no pressure :))Quote: beachbumbabsteddys,
Not a dumb question. Go, Bluejays! I would still take the points and ULL; I think it's going to be close but a Creighton win. They have a way of getting the first-game jitters. JMHO as an alumnus.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
March 21st, 2014 at 11:29:24 AM
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Duke loses? Oh, the humanity..........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 21st, 2014 at 11:54:01 AM
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Quote: steeldcoDuke loses? Oh, the humanity..........
Warren Buffet resting a little easier today...
March 21st, 2014 at 12:21:01 PM
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According to Yahoo, the top 50 in the billion dollar tournament all have perfect scores so far. I can't tell how many more beyond the top 50 may also have perfect scores.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 21st, 2014 at 1:15:38 PM
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If you look at some of the actual brackets of the people, you can see they have got some stuff wrong.
the top 50 right now all have 18 out of 19.
So, no one is perfect. Buffet's billion dollars is safe.
/edit
I take it back, I see someone is 19 out of 19. The leaderboard page just isn't up to date/completely accurate.
the top 50 right now all have 18 out of 19.
So, no one is perfect. Buffet's billion dollars is safe.
/edit
I take it back, I see someone is 19 out of 19. The leaderboard page just isn't up to date/completely accurate.
March 21st, 2014 at 1:41:27 PM
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Quote: Dalex64
I take it back, I see someone is 19 out of 19. The leaderboard page just isn't up to date/completely accurate.
I wonder what a 19 team moneyline parlay would've paid, and that would include the Mercer, Dayton, and North Dakota St moneylines
March 21st, 2014 at 1:49:32 PM
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Quote: michael99000I wonder what a 19 team moneyline parlay would've paid, and that would include the Mercer, Dayton, and North Dakota St moneylines
Still 21 people standing for the billion at 20/20. For some reason, the list starts repeating after that, but not all the way through.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
March 21st, 2014 at 1:53:22 PM
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Tennessee is upsetting UMass right now... which isn't upsetting "N$" since he/she picked Tennessee!
March 21st, 2014 at 2:08:32 PM
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Quote: Dalex64Tennessee is upsetting UMass right now... which isn't upsetting "N$" since he/she picked Tennessee!
Lol yes I love these CBS upset alert flashes on the screen.
Ummm.. 11 seed Tennessee was a 7 point favorite in an 11 vs 6 game.
Perhaps the oddsmakers should be doing the seeding. I can guarantee Cinci vs Harvard would not have been a 12-5 game.
March 21st, 2014 at 2:27:04 PM
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Oh, Tennessee was the odds favorite? Amusing!
Perhaps you are right re: who should be seeding the tournament, but I don't think they want to be any more in bed with the betting industry.
Perhaps you are right re: who should be seeding the tournament, but I don't think they want to be any more in bed with the betting industry.
March 21st, 2014 at 3:42:36 PM
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I had Tenn. today, and over the Dukies that FAILED.
FWIW Gonzaga, K. State, and Wichita St. still alive.
Still rooting for Harvard and Tenn. one more time.
My big upsets were Harvard over MI State, and Tenn. over Duke.
I might still be in the local gin-mill pool.
Is it me or is it that no one is hitting deep-2's? (say between free-throw and the 3-point line)
FWIW Gonzaga, K. State, and Wichita St. still alive.
Still rooting for Harvard and Tenn. one more time.
My big upsets were Harvard over MI State, and Tenn. over Duke.
I might still be in the local gin-mill pool.
Is it me or is it that no one is hitting deep-2's? (say between free-throw and the 3-point line)
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
March 21st, 2014 at 3:47:01 PM
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Quote: 98ClubsI had Tenn. today, and over the Dukies that FAILED.
FWIW Gonzaga, K. State, and Wichita St. still alive.
Still rooting for Harvard and Tenn. one more time.
My big upsets were Harvard over MI State, and Tenn. over Duke.
I might still be in the local gin-mill pool.
Is it me or is it that no one is hitting deep-2's? (say between free-throw and the 3-point line)
It's not just you. Too much adrenalin rush for the first game to make shots til well into the game. Then late panic.
Funny bracketing, as always. I had hoped I guessed enough upsets to be viable, but yuck....
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
March 21st, 2014 at 4:33:23 PM
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I note that of the 6 perfect brackets, 4 of them are, seemingly, picked by women. Hhmmmmmm...
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 21st, 2014 at 6:22:31 PM
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one perfect bracket left, 25 of 25
https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/quickenloansbracket/2030973
https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/quickenloansbracket/2030973
March 22nd, 2014 at 6:43:44 AM
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I have some bets on the sum of seeds in the final four. I'm betting on a low number.
After the first round, the average seed is 5.938. Compare this to an average at this point from previous years of 5.786. So, a bit more bracket busting than usual, but nothing remarkable. The following table shows the average seed in round 2 by year, in order of average seed. Note that two years ago was the biggest bracket busting year.
After the first round, the average seed is 5.938. Compare this to an average at this point from previous years of 5.786. So, a bit more bracket busting than usual, but nothing remarkable. The following table shows the average seed in round 2 by year, in order of average seed. Note that two years ago was the biggest bracket busting year.
| Year | Avg Second Round Seed |
|---|---|
| 2000 | 4.844 |
| 2007 | 4.906 |
| 2004 | 5.063 |
| 1994 | 5.375 |
| 1988 | 5.406 |
| 2003 | 5.438 |
| 1985 | 5.531 |
| 1990 | 5.594 |
| 2011 | 5.594 |
| 1992 | 5.625 |
| 1993 | 5.625 |
| 1996 | 5.656 |
| 2005 | 5.688 |
| 1997 | 5.719 |
| 2008 | 5.813 |
| 2002 | 5.844 |
| 1987 | 5.875 |
| 2009 | 5.938 |
| 2014 | 5.938 |
| 1998 | 5.969 |
| 1995 | 6.000 |
| 2010 | 6.000 |
| 1999 | 6.063 |
| 1986 | 6.094 |
| 2006 | 6.094 |
| 1989 | 6.188 |
| 1991 | 6.281 |
| 2001 | 6.375 |
| 2013 | 6.500 |
| 2012 | 6.563 |
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 23rd, 2014 at 10:19:53 PM
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Here is my Sweet Sixteen progress report.
With 16 teams left the average seed is 4.9375. The average of at this point in all previous years is 4.364.
The following table shows the average remaining seed at this point in order of average. Of the 30 seasons since March Madness started, in its current form, 2014 has the 23rd lowest average Sweet Sixteen seed. So, more upsets, going by seed, than the average year, but nothing extremely unusual.
With 16 teams left the average seed is 4.9375. The average of at this point in all previous years is 4.364.
The following table shows the average remaining seed at this point in order of average. Of the 30 seasons since March Madness started, in its current form, 2014 has the 23rd lowest average Sweet Sixteen seed. So, more upsets, going by seed, than the average year, but nothing extremely unusual.
| Year | Average |
|---|---|
| 2009 | 3.063 |
| 1989 | 3.125 |
| 1995 | 3.188 |
| 2007 | 3.188 |
| 1996 | 3.688 |
| 1994 | 3.750 |
| 1991 | 4.000 |
| 1993 | 4.063 |
| 1992 | 4.188 |
| 2003 | 4.188 |
| 1987 | 4.250 |
| 2001 | 4.250 |
| 1988 | 4.375 |
| 2008 | 4.375 |
| 2006 | 4.438 |
| 2005 | 4.500 |
| 2004 | 4.563 |
| 2012 | 4.563 |
| 2002 | 4.688 |
| 1998 | 4.750 |
| 1997 | 4.813 |
| 1985 | 4.875 |
| 2014 | 4.938 |
| 2010 | 5.000 |
| 2011 | 5.000 |
| 2013 | 5.063 |
| 2000 | 5.313 |
| 1990 | 5.500 |
| 1999 | 5.500 |
| 1986 | 5.563 |
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 23rd, 2014 at 11:47:39 PM
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I'm really happy the SDSU Aztecs made it to the Sweet 16! After watching Arizona destroy Gonzaga tonight I'm not feeling too confident that the Aztecs will be able to stop the Wildcats though. Sure would be exciting to see the Aztecs make it to the Elite 8 or Final Four for the first time in school history. Go AZTECS!!!
March 24th, 2014 at 8:27:58 AM
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Wiz, have you done a regression looking at how average seed value left at round of 32, S16, E8 correlate to seed value at the F4? On one hand more high number seeds advancing mean more high number seeds available to make the F4. On the other hand those teams are less able to pull upsets over 1 and 2 seeds than 3-6 seed are. Hence maybe the Cinderella teams run to the intermediate stages and then flame out predictably. I would guess that the overall correlation is a positive but not strong.
March 24th, 2014 at 9:14:04 AM
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Quote: endermikeWiz, have you done a regression looking at how average seed value left at round of 32, S16, E8 correlate to seed value at the F4?
No. Let me just give you this, the average seed at each level, in the 29 years of March Madness, plus this season for the first two rounds.
| Round | Avg. Seed |
|---|---|
| 32 | 5.786 |
| Sweet 16 | 4.425 |
| Elite 8 | 3.116 |
| Final 4 | 2.698 |
| Terrific 2 | 2.293 |
| Winner | 1.931 |
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
April 6th, 2014 at 8:12:25 AM
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Here is an update of the average seed at each round, before this season, and for this season. Basically, it shows the dogs are doing very well this season. The average seed of 7.5 in the Terrific Two (if I can call it that) is the highest by far. The previous record was 5.5 in 2011.
The winner will be a 7 or 8 seed. Until now, the lowest seed to win was an 8 in the first year of 1985. A 7 seed has never won.
| Round | 2014 | Avg. Seed |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | 5.938 | 5.781 |
| Sweet 16 | 4.938 | 4.407 |
| Elite 8 | 4.500 | 3.116 |
| Final 4 | 4.500 | 2.698 |
| Terrific 2 | 7.500 | 2.293 |
| Winner | ? | 1.931 |
The winner will be a 7 or 8 seed. Until now, the lowest seed to win was an 8 in the first year of 1985. A 7 seed has never won.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
