What are the chances I win our weekly footbal pool tomorrow night?

Help me figure out the odds of me winning this week's company football pool. Here's the scenario:

If Tampa Bay wins tomorrow, Mark wins the pool.

If Miami wins tomorrow and the total combined points is 38 or less, Mark also wins the pool.
If Miami wins tomorrow and the total combined points is 39, Mark and I split the pot.
If Miami wins tomorrow and the total combined points is 40-43, I win the pool.
If Miami wins tomorrow and the total combined points is 44, 45, or 46, Hudson wins the pool.
Finally, if Miami wins tomorrow and the total combined points is 47 or greater, Miguel wins the pool.

My calculations:

Based upon the pointspread (about 2 or 2.5), I estimate Miami has about a 52% chance of winning outright.

Although my total combined points (40-43) falls within the current over/under total, I estimate the chances of it landing in this four point range are small... say 15% at best. If so, since I need both to happen, the overall chance for me is the product of the two. 52/100 * 15/100 = a dismal 7.8%

Mark's chances are 66.2%: 48/100 + (52/100 * 35/100) (35% estimated chance the total points are 38 or less.)
Hudson's chances are 6.2%: (52/100 * 12/100) (Just a 12% estimated chance the total points are within his three point range.)
Miguel's chances are 19.8%: (52/100 * 38/100) (A 38% estimated chance the total points are 47 or greater.)

(1) Is this the correct way to calculate it (I think so) and (2) do you think my estimates are in the ball park?

I will try to purchase Mark's "ticket" tomorrow morning, if I can get him to sell it to me for a good price. I doubt if he realizes his chances of winning are as high as I believe they are. (He doesn't need Miami to win, as the rest of us do. He can also win if Miami wins a low scoring game.)

Quote: EdCollins

Help me figure out the odds of me winning this week's company football pool. Here's the scenario:

If Tampa Bay wins tomorrow, Mark wins the pool.

If Miami wins tomorrow and the total combined points is 38 or less, Mark also wins the pool.
If Miami wins tomorrow and the total combined points is 39, Mark and I split the pot.
If Miami wins tomorrow and the total combined points is 40-43, I win the pool.
If Miami wins tomorrow and the total combined points is 44, 45, or 46, Hudson wins the pool.
Finally, if Miami wins tomorrow and the total combined points is 47 or greater, Miguel wins the pool.

My calculations:

Based upon the pointspread (about 2 or 2.5), I estimate Miami has about a 52% chance of winning outright.

Although my total combined points (40-43) falls within the current over/under total, I estimate the chances of it landing in this four point range are small... say 15% at best. If so, since I need both to happen, the overall chance for me is the product of the two. 52/100 * 15/100 = a dismal 7.8%

Mark's chances are 66.2%: 48/100 + (52/100 * 35/100) (35% estimated chance the total points are 38 or less.)
Hudson's chances are 6.2%: (52/100 * 12/100) (Just a 12% estimated chance the total points are within his three point range.)
Miguel's chances are 19.8%: (52/100 * 38/100) (A 38% estimated chance the total points are 47 or greater.)

(1) Is this the correct way to calculate it (I think so) and (2) do you think my estimates are in the ball park?

I will try to purchase Mark's "ticket" tomorrow morning, if I can get him to sell it to me for a good price. I doubt if he realizes his chances of winning are as high as I believe they are. (He doesn't need Miami to win, as the rest of us do. He can also win if Miami wins a low scoring game.)

Ed,

Just swagging, but I think you estimate Mark's chances at too high a percentage; 38 points is VERY low this season for a game from what I've seen. Miami's averaging 22 points a game while giving up 25.5, and TB's averaging 15.5 while giving up 26. So both defenses suck. I think it's going to be the Florida Ineptitude Bowl tomorrow night, with both teams running up the score against mediocre defense, and the point total's going to be in the mid-forties or higher. JMHO; YMMV. Not sure how much Miguel's ticket would cost, but I'd rather have that one. I guess we'll all know about this time tomorrow.

Well, Ed, now what? They combined for 41 points, which was your spread, but Tampa won. So who won the pool?

According to the OP, "If Tampa Bay wins tomorrow, Mark wins the pool."

Don's correct.

Our Monday night tie-breaker wasn't even needed. Mark finished one game ahead of us - he picked Tampa Bay. The three of us who were still in contention all picked Miami. We would have tied with Mark if the Dolphins had won, and it then would have come down to our tie-breaker.

I tried to sell my ticket today, but no one wanted to buy it. :)

I tried to purchase Mark's ticket today, but he didn't want to sell it, not even if I would have offered him $100.00, he said. (Which he should have done at that price, tonight's result notwithstanding.)

Quote: ThatDonGuy

According to the OP, "If Tampa Bay wins tomorrow, Mark wins the pool."

How many times did I read the OP and miss that, even when looking for it? 5? Yeesh.