Week 10 thoughts

Early on I have a lean toward carolina to cover vs sf

SF has won 5 in a row against below ave teams.

Carolina is the best team SF has met since it lost at home to INDY.

Another issue is that SF has not had to come from behind in the final minutes in any of their games.(unlike seattle which does it regularly).They are not tested in this respect. If they need a late touchdown, are they experienced enough to drive the field?. This can be a tight game. Carolina is great against the run....and SF has been living off the run up to now.

Kapernick has not been unleashed in the running game like last year, my guess is because last year they had a good backup if thereis an injury.....this year no real viable backup. God help the offensive coodinator that calls a play that gets the QB injured for the season. I mean if he runs and gets a late hit out of bounds...he is out for the season and in exchange you get 15 extra yards....not a great exchange. Sure he could get injured in the pocket...but I sense they are going to jeep him safe.

If indy can beat SF in SF.....then I think carolina can cover at least.

I am open to opinions, like always I dont pretend to have this pick handed down from god.

ps I dont make my bets till sun morning, so this is an initial thought, before any new injury reports come out which can change my mind.

oAlso Miami has enough problems protecting their QB as it is....I am taking tampa winning since the 0 line of Miami is having issues

heck..they may even knock miami's QB out of the game

Week 10 Suicide pool: Tennesee.
Also I took DEN, MIA,PHI and HOU.

my opinion on Philly.....I am wary of games the week after a team performs either over its head or under performs

for example the jets with a good defense gives up 49 points and gets blown out by 30......and everyone sours on the jets at home against NO.....and jets win.

Eagles blow out oakland.....and everyone has a new darling. GB loses with a backup QB that had no practice with the first team...amd people sour on GB. lets see what wallace can do with a weeks practice....with plays scripted to his strengths. I think with home field advantage, and a better prepared QB.....packers can win.

Just my opinion.

my 2 fave plays came in according to plan. The O line couldnt protect tannehill, and Kapernick could not drive down the field for a winning field goal at the end of the game.

Quote: LarryS

my 2 fave plays came in according to plan. The O line couldnt protect tannehill, and Kapernick could not drive down the field for a winning field goal at the end of the game.

Larry, you say you place your bet on Sunday morni9ng after checking injuries and weather.
Would you mind sharing some of the insights after placing the bets???

Quote: LarryS

my opinion on Philly.....I am wary of games the week after a team performs either over its head or under performs

for example the jets with a good defense gives up 49 points and gets blown out by 30......and everyone sours on the jets at home against NO.....and jets win.

Eagles blow out oakland.....and everyone has a new darling. GB loses with a backup QB that had no practice with the first team...amd people sour on GB. lets see what wallace can do with a weeks practice....with plays scripted to his strengths. I think with home field advantage, and a better prepared QB.....packers can win.

Just my opinion.

Isn't Seneca Wallace now out for a time as well?

Thanks for the insights.

no changes in weather or injuries detrimental to my 2 picks occured.

as far as my comment on some elses pick of Philly after a blowout or Oakland after being blown out in the same game....it was a word of caution that both teams arent as good or bad as they appear. Oakland covered, Philly did as well. My comment in general still stands about the week after a lopsided win or loss. Caution is needed. If someone bet against Oakland, and For Philly based on that blowout game.....they lost one and won one...which is a net loss. Thats why I stay away from those games the week after the blowout.

LarryS: I started a thread about my NFL division winners. Comment please?? Thanks first.

I was only able to pick 4 winners this week. However I won the office pool week 9 and that paid for the entire season. For my Vegas trip I think I'm going with the top 2 players picks. They'll likely have the same picks for 8-10 games. I'll get the picks after Thursdays game. I will be coming home with at least 10 parlays. I had 11 of 13. Almost won weeks 2 or 3 but I lost the total point tie break.

My best bets for this weekend in the NFL are:

Raiders +7.5 and moneyline

Jets +1

The texans strength on defense is there pass rush and batting balls down. Speed is not their asset. I think containing Pryor will be difficult and he will beat them with his legs.

The Bills looked awful on Sunday against a steeler defense that is banged up and a shell of its former self. The jets defense is obviously their strength and I'd be surprised if buffalo gets into double figure points in this game, especially if Stevie Johnson doesn't play or is less than 100%

Raiders 23 Texans 20

Jets 16 Bills 6

Quote: michael99000

My best bets for this weekend in the NFL are:

Raiders +7.5 and moneyline

Jets +1

The texans strength on defense is there pass rush and batting balls down. Speed is not their asset. I think containing Pryor will be difficult and he will beat them with his legs.

The Bills looked awful on Sunday against a steeler defense that is banged up and a shell of its former self. The jets defense is obviously their strength and I'd be surprised if buffalo gets into double figure points in this game, especially if Stevie Johnson doesn't play or is less than 100%

Raiders 23 Texans 20

Jets 16 Bills 6

We will find out on Sunday.
But I like jets.
Oakland is hard to figure out. I will stay away.

I also like the Jets in this game. Not only is Stevie Johnson out, but so is the only other W/R with good hands - Robert Woods. The only mismatch is the fact that Jets can't cover TEs for crap. To their benefit, Chandler and Gragg both have cement hands.

Quote: speedycrap

We will find out on Sunday.
But I like jets.
Oakland is hard to figure out. I will stay away.

pryor didnt even practice today. He wont be 100 percent id he starts

houston has a good defense

houston usually dies in the second half

so I personally would lean toward taking houston in the first half -4 or something like that

Quote: LarryS

pryor didnt even practice today. He wont be 100 percent id he starts

houston has a good defense

houston usually dies in the second half

so I personally would lean toward taking houston in the first half -4 or something like that

I am fading every team rushing their injured QB back into play. That's Bills, Da Bears, and the Lions so far.

Can not take the Raiders No way. Just can not take 7.5 points in NFL when quarterback rating last week was 2.6 NO WAY !

Quote: Shameless

I am fading every team rushing their injured QB back into play. That's Bills, Da Bears, and the Lions so far.

The Lions? I'm aware of Stafford being injured at all this season, and certainly not coming back early from injury. Do you mean the Raiders? Or the Vikes?

Is Kyle Rote going to start for Bobby Layne ?

Quote: Shameless

I am fading every team rushing their injured QB back into play. That's Bills, Da Bears, and the Lions so far.

I think mckowan is playing for the bears....which i think is worse than injured cutler. bears are a weak fave...i dont buy it.

mckowan throw interceptions.....Balt can win oitright. I agree with your pick as far as the bears/ravans for different reasons.

Bills I am staying away from....a second week for their main QB could be just what he needed to get the rust off. I am no playying this game cause I am leaning toward Bills, but want to find a reason to bet the jets,,,,,but cant come up with one.

Quote: thecesspit

The Lions? I'm aware of Stafford being injured at all this season, and certainly not coming back early from injury. Do you mean the Raiders? Or the Vikes?

I meant Jake Locker rushed back. I have a pretty good memory, but I have a tendency to confuse the Titans and Lions when I'm rushing and I'm certain it's that ugly blue color.

Maybe you have it right about McCown vs. Cutler in early years.......and I'm not in any way saying that McCown is a better quarterback than Cutler, but I can tell you that if you look at the stats, McCown is having an extraordinary year. I believe it's due to the Trestman offensive system. Cutler is better but McCown isn't as bad as his past stats have made him look. The Bears may lose, but it will be because of its defense.

I also believe Trestman has shown remarkable flexibility in his game planning through the injury adversity that every team faces.

Quote: LarryS

I think mckowan is playing for the bears....which i think is worse than injured cutler. bears are a weak fave...i dont buy it.

mckowan throw interceptions.....Balt can win oitright. I agree with your pick as far as the bears/ravans for different reasons.

Bills I am staying away from....a second week for their main QB could be just what he needed to get the rust off. I am no playying this game cause I am leaning toward Bills, but want to find a reason to bet the jets,,,,,but cant come up with one.

McCown is worse than injured cutler ? Not sure what youve been watching, but he looked great against the packers on MNF, then last week in his only drive he marches them down the field for
A touchdown.

Oh and as for your assessment that he throws interceptions, this year on 70 pass attempts he's yet to throw a single int. 0 isn't a lot