week 8 thoughts
first observation
KC......great homefield advantage, 7-0.......a public favorite now.....BUT.....has 7 wins against teams with a total of 13 wins. They dont win by alot. 8 points is huge.
Cleveland has an above ave defense which means they can keep it close ...especially since alex smith doesnt throw downfield...usually just dink and dunk short passes. Cleveland with a third string QB.......is a downside. KC has a dominant defense and still only wins by a small margin. I am leaning to clevelant plus 8
Ariz-SPREAD STARTS EVEN AND INCHES UP TO 3.......I liked ariz at even, and still like them at minus 3.I like ariz defense to keep it close and exploit all the atanta injuries.. Atlanta at home barely beat ariz last year, and that was without all the injuries....and with ariz having an even inferior QB than they have now.
Quote: LarrySalthough I dont give picks, as I make final decisions a couple hours before the game taking into account late scratches, weather etc.....I dotn mind having a discussion on peoples opinions on aspects of the game that may be used to pick or not pick a team.
first observation
KC......great homefield advantage, 7-0.......a public favorite now.....BUT.....has 7 wins against teams with a total of 13 wins. They dont win by alot. 8 points is huge.
Cleveland has an above ave defense which means they can keep it close ...especially since alex smith doesnt throw downfield...usually just dink and dunk short passes. Cleveland with a third string QB.......is a downside. KC has a dominant defense and still only wins by a small margin. I am leaning to clevelant plus 8
Ariz-SPREAD STARTS EVEN AND INCHES UP TO 3.......I liked ariz at even, and still like them at minus 3.I like ariz defense to keep it close and exploit all the atanta injuries.. Atlanta at home barely beat ariz last year, and that was without all the injuries....and with ariz having an even inferior QB than they have now.
LOOKS LIKE BILLY WALTERS HAS NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT. NOT THIS JUVENILE HANDICAPPER< THAT"S FOR SURE !
didnt you know that?
maybe you meant to say...william hill has nothing to worry about....that would make more sense.
you will learn...just a few more years of experience and you can bet with the best of the novices......and at least make sensible comments.
nice touch with the capital letters sonny...it really added weight to your commentary.
I have heard of the ends justifies the means.
But the score after the game saying what the line should have been.
ROFLMAO
Quote: speedycrapCleveland has no offense at all so a lot of 3 and out. K.C. will control the ball. K.C. will add a few points here and there and win by 15-20. Never take a team that can't score especially you are in suicide pool. K.C. by 15.
Jason Campbel has has some great games and also a bunch of stinkers. I am not saying cleveland will win. But other than dallas,,,,this is the best team KC has seen this year. Cambel a few years ago when into Denver, with the lowly raiders....and beat the crap put of the broncos by about 30 points. With an effective game plan..he can be effective. I think he has a lifetime QB rating of about 80.
wait till KC sees the other half of their schedule.....where they will actually have to score some points...and even perhaps play from behind. Not a strong point for smith.
either I will skip this game of go with cleveland and the points.
most likely leaning to skippig, as there is no value in hoping and praying that a 3rd stringer will come thru for me.
because after all KC has had the leagues easiest schedule.....I cant get too excited over te perfect record. by the end of the year they probbly eill have 3 losses outright.
Quote: Buzzard" all final scores expose all lines as either valid or invalid....close or not close. "
I have heard of the ends justifies the means.
But the score after the game saying what the line should have been.
ROFLMAO
do you actually roll on the floor, or laugh out loud, or detatch from your rectum???....WOW.
thats the kind of talk I think I would hear from a 14 year old girl......OMG!!!!!!!!!!!! lol!!!!!!!!!!!
there is an old saying....If you act like a donkey...people are going to ride you
Thanks for the ride sonny
If you have cogent commentary, please bring it....but the childish remarks and vernacular of a 14 year old girl does not give you any added credibility.
however calm thoughtful comments are welcome
did I thank you for the ride??...oh yeah..i think I did
ps....billy walters is still not taking any action....and is still not scared of me or even you
" But the score after the game saying what the line should have been. " Still cracks me up.
In 1982 he plea-bargained to a misdemeanor bookmaking charge.
You probably dont realize it.....but....This thread involves thoughts on week 8 games
you obviously have no thoughts
but that isnt a surprise
this just in.....Billy Walters still is NOT taking action....AND IS STILL NOT SCARED OF ME.....or even you.
and as usual
thanks for the ride
news flash
this is a thread about week 8 NFL
if you want to post about billy walters while rolling on the floor detaching from your anus, while gigiling like a school girl...that is certainly your perogative.
However that would occur on a thread titlled....i dont know...maybe ...."school girls discuss billy walters"
thanks for the ride
as usual
That is exactly the reason. If you don't pound on a third string QB, what else will you pound on????
Take K.C. and give 7!!!!!!
I agree. But the number is 8 right now. Combined with the fact that KC has played the weakest schedule in the NFL so far. Combined with the fact that KC doesnt socre alot. Combined with the fact that cleveland can hold down the score with a decent defense.
I think(only opinion)....that campbell may not be their 3rd worse QB. The other 2 are younger and have upside which they want to develope. Not so much for weeden anymore. But I am thinking that the fact that he was 3rd string had less to do with capability, than it had to do with looking to the future and developing a stud starter.
Campbell....again in my opinion is as good as the other 2 QBs on cleveleand. I dont see a reduction in QB ratings for QB with the switch.
Campbell doesnt have to put up alot of points to cover the 8. If they get a bunch of fieldgoals and a touchdown.....thats 16 points. If kc getd 24....thats a tie right now. Not worth it for me.
In my opinion, the line is just right. Nothing of value for me to bet on here. Maybe inflated by a point or 2 because KC has alot of national attention and is undefeated.
you may be right,,,dont look a gift horse in the mouth and give the 8 points...its reasonable. I am jut giving my 2 cents.
P.S. If you like some action, I will take K.C. -7 for $1. Yes, one dollar. We will settle when we eventually meet. How is that?
The reason is I always put my money on where my mouth is. NO B.S.
Although the number is 8, I will go for the 7.(that is a big concession)
Although with my sportsbook..I am skipping this game.....most likely.
Quote: LarrySWe checked our bank accounds and holdings and have come to the conclusion after careful thought that I can accept that bet.
Toooo funny!
of gollars.Quote: LarrySi sat my wife down and had a discussion with her. We checked our bank accounds and holdings and have come to the conclusion after careful thought that I can accept that bet.
Although the number is 8, I will go for the 7.(that is a big concession)
Although with my sportsbook..I am skipping this game.....most likely.
I will open a file on my computer and start recording our bets.
$1, one dollar it is. You have a bet. I will take K.C. -7
One day I will dropby Vegas and collect. Hopefully it will run up to a few hundred
Anyone's got thoughts on steelers @ raiders under/over?
Quote: speedycrapof gollars.
I will open a file on my computer and start recording our bets.
$1, one dollar it is. You have a bet. I will take K.C. -7
One day I will dropby Vegas and collect. Hopefully it will run up to a few hundred
if you are near reno, you can collect.
otherwise I expect interest on my winnings..the same I would get in a savings account. Lets say 1 percent a year until it is actually paid.
...just to warn you...in about 80 years the debt will have doubled
Quote: LarrySif you are near reno, you can collect.
otherwise I expect interest on my winnings..the same I would get in a savings account. Lets say 1 percent a year until it is actually paid.
...just to warn you...in about 80 years the debt will have doubled[
I am thinking to move to Vegas for a period of time. Maybe one year. I want to live there so I can gamble everyday. But I need a job to pay the bills. I am very good at serving in restaurants. Any restaurants but not 5 stars. I don't need no bull shit. Just serving and make a few bucks. Is Reno better than Vegas? I have my own bank roll for gambling. Not a lot but hopefully last one year. That is my dream before retirement. I am @50. Do you(LarryS) think it is feasible?
I put my money where my mouth is.
If you are looking for a job of any nature, reno is not better than vegas, just because of size. There is more of everyhting in vegas.
I dont know how big your bankroll is, and I am not sure how easy it is for a 50 year old to get the kind of job you are looking for( believe me, there is age descrimination out there in the real world)
I am sure there are more jobs in vegas per square mile than in reno.
For my gambling purposes (sports and poker).....I dont have to be in vegas. A sports book is a sports book is a sports book
and I dont need 40 tables of poker....like some vegas casinos have.
Its a nice quiet area that I can eventually retire to, when I decide to get away from the high taxes of california.
for me...I dont think at this point I can make a living from gambling. I bet 100k a year on sports(2k each weekend)...and have only managed a 6 percent profit yearly for the last 3 years
thats nothing to live on. And my poker is a work in progress....probably on the net losing end if I am honest.
And if you are going to take that plunge and be a full time gambler...you have to be honest withyourself....can you consistantly win in the long run over a year.
and can you handle an extended losing streak if it should arise....without freaking out or getting depressed or giving up
there was a guy on the patrick board who gave us all kinds of details leading up to his becoming a full time gambler....the first day that he got hammered hard with a loss...he quit.
I dont know the magic number for a starting bankroll. I would just be talking out of my ass if I threw out a number.
all I can say is just be honest with yourself...if you dont have consistant net wins now...they arent going to appear when you move to vegas
Quote: LarrySI am similar to your age, though not retired yet. I have a second home near reno and go there every weekend weather permitting.
If you are looking for a job of any nature, reno is not better than vegas, just because of size. There is more of everyhting in vegas.
I dont know how big your bankroll is, and I am not sure how easy it is for a 50 year old to get the kind of job you are looking for( believe me, there is age descrimination out there in the real world)
I am sure there are more jobs in vegas per square mile than in reno.
For my gambling purposes (sports and poker).....I dont have to be in vegas. A sports book is a sports book is a sports book
and I dont need 40 tables of poker....like some vegas casinos have.
Its a nice quiet area that I can eventually retire to, when I decide to get away from the high taxes of california.
for me...I dont think at this point I can make a living from gambling. I bet 100k a year on sports(2k each weekend)...and have only managed a 6 percent profit yearly for the last 3 years
thats nothing to live on. And my poker is a work in progress....probably on the net losing end if I am honest.
And if you are going to take that plunge and be a full time gambler...you have to be honest withyourself....can you consistantly win in the long run over a year.
and can you handle an extended losing streak if it should arise....without freaking out or getting depressed or giving up
there was a guy on the patrick board who gave us all kinds of details leading up to his becoming a full time gambler....the first day that he got hammered hard with a loss...he quit.
I dont know the magic number for a starting bankroll. I would just be talking out of my ass if I threw out a number.
all I can say is just be honest with yourself...if you dont have consistant net wins now...they arent going to appear when you move to vegas
A job is just to provide for daily basics ,like rent, food, gas and daily necessities. I want to work 20-30 hours per week(3-4 days per week). So I have enough time to gamble. Do you think working as a server in restaurant at Vegas/Reno will net me say $500/week? I like to try every single casino and every single game. Just to have fun. My games are craps, baccarat,tiles and maybe some card games but not 21. Little poker is OK.
I am thinking of bring 10K as bankroll. Set a maximum 500 as daily limit. Let it last i year and that is my DREAM LIFE.
Possible????????????
My suggestion is to get as good as you can get at 2 games and alternate between the 2 depending on which one you happen to be going well with.
being a jack of all trades and master of none is the usual position of most gamblers going into vegas.
be the mastrer of 2 trades....and then see where that takes you
I personally used to be big at craps and roulette....i never won in the long run of 20 years. Then 12 years ago I swtiched to sports and hold em. And the bleeding stopped as I became welll versed in those 2 , As I gained experience and read books, onthgose 2 areas of gambling...I wil never play talbe games going up against the casino again.
when I retire in a couple years and mve permanently to the reno metro area....I will still only play those 2 games.
(pluss a small amount f slots which are a guilty pleasure and a small part of my bankroll)
Quote: LarrySalthough I dont give picks, as I make final decisions a couple hours before the game taking into account late scratches, weather etc.....I dotn mind having a discussion on peoples opinions on aspects of the game that may be used to pick or not pick a team.
first observation
KC......great homefield advantage, 7-0.......a public favorite now.....BUT.....has 7 wins against teams with a total of 13 wins. They dont win by alot. 8 points is huge.
Cleveland has an above ave defense which means they can keep it close ...especially since alex smith doesnt throw downfield...usually just dink and dunk short passes. Cleveland with a third string QB.......is a downside. KC has a dominant defense and still only wins by a small margin. I am leaning to clevelant plus 8
Ariz-SPREAD STARTS EVEN AND INCHES UP TO 3.......I liked ariz at even, and still like them at minus 3.I like ariz defense to keep it close and exploit all the atanta injuries.. Atlanta at home barely beat ariz last year, and that was without all the injuries....and with ariz having an even inferior QB than they have now.
hey buzzard
While you were rolling on a floor and detatching from your rectum, my comments still stand...days later.
i hope you get recconeected with your better half
As having a job will make me last longer and enjoy gambling more because I don't have to worry about losing all my money and can't afford rent or food. Also, keep me from gambling 24 hours per day. And also to meet some people at work.
Quote: speedycrapI understand what you are saying but I want to enjoy my life and fulfill my dream as a GAMBLER. If I lose all my bankroll, it will be fine to me.
As having a job will make me last longer and enjoy gambling more because I don't have to worry about losing all my money and can't afford rent or food. Also, keep me from gambling 24 hours per day. And also to meet some people at work.
I am all for people following their dream. Its just that I feel you should be smart about it and not spread yourself too thin on playing multiple games.
In the end its your choice. You are an adult, and I am certainly not your parent. So I give my 2 cents. thats all I can do...and I move on. No sense beating a dead horse.
Maybe one day we play poker. .
Sometimes, I play 2-5 no limit hold em.
10K parley starting at $10/15. double every time until lost , then start again.
