How effective is handicapping?

this brings up a question.

If the man can be so far off on almost 30 percent of the "numbers" in football it begs the question, are they accurate.and can we accurately use those numbers as factual real numbers for which we calculate varience etc.

For example it is said that ther man provides a number that will promote equal action on both sides...this says nothing about real accuracybased on real expected results, based on talent.

sometimes the number may be bogus based on "the man" not evaluating talent and matchups effectively, sometimes the number may be off based on "the mans" perception of what will cause equal betting on both sides. Either way it seems the number "the man" comes up with cant be viewed on a consistant basis as a factual number as if it were handed down by god. As if its as factual as the numbers used to calculate probabilities in craps or roulette.

Isnt sports betting about finding value in talent and matchups, comparing it to "the mans number" comaring that number to the number you feel is valid, and then deciding if you picking the team has a value to recieve -110

so if "the man says the fave is -4.5 faves, and you reseach and feel it should be more like -6,,,,,then it seems to me that getting -110 is a bargain.

Isnt that what sports betting is all about...not just taking what is given to you...but instead weeding thru the games and finding what you believe is value?..because after all as we see with "pleasers".....the man is off a significan amount of time. Sometimes "off" on purpose in order to get equal money on both sides...sometimes "off" based on just poor judgement/evaluation.

using "the mans" numbers as if they arew some factual set of figures in my opinion is the wrong way to approach sports betting. And plugging those numbers into formulas.......is flawed unless accompanied by real good research on talent and individual matchups.

I think the above would make for a good topic for a separate thread.

My opinion is most lines are well set. However, sometimes the line will be a half point, or even full point, in favor of a big team. For example, the Patriots always bring in a lot of fan money, which may move the spread a bit against them. You can tell where this happens by comparing Vegas lines to offshore. Vegas gets a lot more square action, where offshore is much sharper, and the lines more dependable.

There is always a book trying to lay off some action on a nickle line. Bookies hate to gamble. I worked for 2 of biggest books in Baltimore. Henry G had to move to Baltimore suburbs from Florida after appearing before Kefauver Committee. He opened a pool room and also took book.

He would sometimes layoff action with Julius ( The Lord ) Salisbury. Feds got hot after Julius when he beat them badly. Well, the Supreme Court did. Day he was to start serving his sentence for not having a gambling stamp, that law was ruled unconstitutional.

Yes, look it up. Gambling was illegal. But the feds sold a stamp to be a book and you had to pay 10% tax. Same thing late in 1970's with a marijuana stamp. Anyway after that, the Feds had a hot nut for Julius. He had a few customers in PA who would mail him a personal check. I sometimes took them to a drug store on Fayette Avenue to cash them for him. Small time, $15 or $25.

Feds used that to nail him for interstate gambling. He had done a short stint for tax evasion years before that, First conviction for
bookmaking. Sentence 30 F***ing YEARS. He was on bail, tailed by Feds 7 by 24. One Tuesday morning his appeal got denied and
Feds went inside to pick him up BYE BYE JULIUS. Disappeared, never to be seen again. Rumored to have gone to Israel.

But not a happy ending. I had breakfast once or twice on Sunday mornings at his house. His wife never saw him again. Just some
letters once or twice a year thru friends. That's what his daughter told me.

Did not mean to hijack this thread. Setting the line is both a science and an art. Trying to beat it consistently, damn near impossible.

i relocated my post, but it seems it was also relocated by someone else.

anyway the question and title is not is handicapping effective....but is the mans numbers reliable noting that 29 percewnt of spreads are over a tochdown off per the posting of the wizard on pleasers.

end of thread....NOW under "reacting to lines"