This seems like an easy money bet to me

So I guess the line came out yesterday and the over/under on wins for the Lakers is around 33-33.5. Now I am a Lakers fan(although not a Kobe fan) and I know this year will be bad. But 33 wins? To me even with the depleted roster there is no way they win less than 40. Jim (Fredo) Buss is a disaster and Mitch Kupchak is pretty much bound by him but even they won't be able to sabotage the Lakers that much.

You still have Nash and Gasol which I personally think will work very well together. In fact the offense will probably run smoother when Kobe is gone. Not to say they will win more games without him but I think they are going to fight and make everything close. On pride alone I gave them 37-38 wins plus a couple of lucky ones.

If I had money that could sit until May, I would put a few bucks down on this in a second. I think whoever made the line is really shortselling the team. They may very well miss the playoffs in a deep West but 33 games? I just can't see it unless the whole team gets injured at once or something.

40? That's almost .500, which is wishful thinking. Nash is 39. Kobe is 35. Gasol is 33.

I agree that the Lakers should get more than 33 wins, but it will be close. They'll probably get 34-35.

Quote: Perdition

On pride alone I gave them 37-38 wins plus a couple of lucky ones.

OK, first of all, there are very few 'easy money' bets. When you find a situation where your views are far different than the oddsmakers, you might want to reconsider. There is a good chance that you are missing something or in your case, not looking at the situation objectively. This statement that I quoted, proves you are not looking at this situation objectively. If you are a fan of a team, it is pretty hard to be objective.

I am only a casual pro basketball fan, but I suspect the Lakers are in for a long season. There are a lot of good teams in the west conference and a few teams that are likely to be improved. When these teams pile up wins, someone is on the losing end. As one teams record improves, another's has to get worse, and I am afraid your Lakers will be playing the role of 'also-rans' this year.

I stand behind my earlier statement that I feel the team will finish with closer to 40 wins than 30 and in my eyes it is Vegas and the oddsmakers underestimating the team to a larger degree than I expected. You still have 2 all stars with a 3rd coming back. Yes they are older and coming off injuries but take a look at the Spurs last year. Not saying the current form of the Lakers is run anywhere close to that but I see 33 wins and that seems a very low bar that can easily be surpassed by this team.

If you look back the last 20 years or so, the only really bad Lakers teams had 33 and 34 wins. The 33 win team was James Worthy's last year with the rest of the team consisting of 2nd tier players. The 34 win team was the 1st year Shaq left and Kobe had to rely on such luminaries as Chucky Atkins and Chris Mihm. Even with a loaded West, this Lakers team is not going to finish as bad as the line suggests.

If you disagree, I respect your opinion. There could be a season ending injury here or there and come May I look dumb. But I am very careful with saying something is a sure thing or a lock. Maybe Floyd Mayweather Jr. fights but that is about it. This to me looks so low that I think there will be a rush of action causing the line to move. I wouldn't be surprised if by the start of the season, it isn't in the 34-36 range.

I know I am biased as a fan and Vegas lines are set purely from a numbers standpoint but this is one bet I would be very confident to take.

Quote: Perdition

I stand behind my earlier statement that I feel the team will finish with closer to 40 wins than 30 and in my eyes it is Vegas and the oddsmakers underestimating the team to a larger degree than I expected.

What is ironic to me is that the Vegas Oddsmakers always inflate Lakers point spreads, totals, and wins because that team gets more fan money than any other team. I would assume if the Vegas line is off by much they would be leaning to the high side.

Quote: DRich

What is ironic to me is that the Vegas Oddsmakers always inflate Lakers point spreads, totals, and wins because that team gets more fan money than any other team. I would assume if the Vegas line is off by much they would be leaning to the high side.

absolutely right.....Lakers are not only one of "americas teams" but a "world team"....everyone who bets around the world heard of the lakers. The man who started this thread admits he is "a fan". that sums it up. If you want to win at sports just be a fan of the teamsthat you happen to bet on. Dont bet on teams you happen to be a fan of.

Lakers, Cowboys, patriots, red sox, yankees, notre dame. ( to name a few) all get inflated numbers. "the man" knows "fans" around the world put money down on these teams...and being "a fan"..they dont care...they will take any crap number and feel their team is being disrespected. and insulted...and just to teach "the man" a lesson for make such a poor line(in their opinion),,,,they put more money than they should on the prop or game.

meanwhile the west has greatly improving teams, and the Lakers play a tonof games against the west. Houstin is a real power now, Goldenstate will be improved. And who knows if Nash and or Kobe will even make it thru the first monthof the season without injury.

Quote: Perdition

But I am very careful with saying something is a sure thing or a lock. Maybe Floyd Mayweather Jr. fights but that is about it. .

Don't forget, the one judge called his last fight a draw. Anything can happen in boxing and basketball.

Quote: Perdition

If I had money that could sit until May, .

Yes, it's much different when you have to lay down the cash vs. getting a "credit line" with the sports book.