BUZZARD"S THOROUGHBRED SELECTIONS

Since I am recuperating, I have decided to post my horse selection. Don't go looking for a big price, but do expect a high win rate.
I need a story to bet on a horse. To overtake the edge of the takeout, I often combine my selection in a Daily Double. If you hit both ends , the overlay payoff is enough to cover the take.

If you consider yourself a handicapper, use my selection for any exotics or pass the race due to me having a high probability of winning. OK , First the story, then the horse. Last Year the horse was traiined by Todd Pletcher, winning trainer of 2nd horse in 2006 Kentucky Derby and
the winner in the 2010. He is averaging $25,000 per start with 763 starts this year.

The owner last year is WinStar Farm and owned Todd's Derby horses, plus the winner of the 2010 Belmont. 110 starts this year, average winnings of $17,000 per race.

Big things were expected of this horse. He had 2 races at Belmont. October 2011. Both Maiden Special weights fir $80,000 purse.
He ran 5th going 6 furlongs on a muddy track at 6 to 1. Next race was 1 Mile on the dirt. He led for 6 furlongs, battling a 3 to 5 shots who won by 12 1/2 lengths. Evidently the horse went wrong after that race.

Same owners, new trainer, new jockey. Sharron Ritter is the second line trainer, only 50+ starts each year, all at Churchill Downs.
Win 14% and in the money 45%, mostly with maidens. Ramon Vasques is a veteran jockey who was 31st in wins nationwide as recent as 2009. He is currently get 5 mounts a day.

And here is the horse a year later entered for $30,000 claiming with a purse of $19,000. Quite a drop to say the least. But he has the 1 hole, it's 6 and 1/2 Furlongs on the dirt.

7 workouts last 8 weeks, last one 9 days ago 5f breezing 1.00 , fastest workout at 5f that day.

Listed at 4 to morning line odds. Not my strongest play, but usually this sort of horse will win half the time. I shoot for 80%, but
this horse can improve if he does not win today and he is listed at 4 to 1 today.

Restitution (KY)

CH , G, foaled April 20, 2009

( Smart Strike - Lassie's Legacy, by Deputy Minister)

His daddy Smart Strike $85,00 stud fee today.

By 2009 Smart Strike had sired 56 stakes winners.


Restitution is a 3 year old gelding, racing with blinkers for the first time and also on Lasix. Race 10 Churchill Downs.

Good Luck

Still 4+ hours to get a bet down !

I dunno Buzz, he's the favorite...

Quote: FinsRule

I dunno Buzz, he's the favorite...

Fin, the best horse usually is.

Alright, you got me. $2 WPS

Damn, don't drive the price down.

If you wouldn't have selfishly had a heart attack, you would have seen how much I lost in the Breeders' Cup. $6 is all I can afford.

Only positive feeling I had about the Breeders cup was Groupie Doll. WOW ! What a girl.

Not many horse players here, but other sites are standard bullshit. Like " this horse is working great " " the stable is ready to go"
or some asinine graph or numerical selection. And lots of 20-20 hindsight. LOL

Groupie Doll was great. What a performance.

Your horse broke a stride slow, might have made the difference, because he had to hustle up so much to get the lead. The show money wasn't bad though.

Why didn't you tell me to put $2 WPS on the 6??? 38-1. I always play the 9-6 (my anniversary) box, that would have worked too. Exacta paid - $531

Oh well, lost $1.40 - I'm okay with it. I can try again tomorrow if you've got one for me.

I watched the tape also, liked when Resolution was battling for the lead at 1/4 pole. Until announcer said 22 and 3. Damn. Allowance horses raced for 54K on turf earlier and leader was 1 length ahead at 22 and 2. In a 5f race. But Resolution only gave up 2 lengths in the stretch, so I will be on him next race as well. 3.80 to 1 was a nice price, despite the year layoff. And the horse who led at the 1/4
pole finished 12 lengths behind Resolution.

Oh well, back to Equibase. LOL

Uncle Ed's Special.

My uncle Ed had a slight gambling problem. One year he was killing the horses and took his winnings, the bowling team's prize money, and a flight to Vegas for a week. He returned 3 days later to call my Aunt Eve to pick him up at the airport, He did not have bus fare.

Anyway his system was when two horses led the whole race, finished a length or less apart, with 5 lengths back to the third horse. He would bet that second horse next time out. Adding a few factors I have hit some decent prices. Will try today at Churchill Downs.

The horse is LOVE NUMBERS a 3 year old maiden filly. Last race led to stretch against eventual winner, finished second by 1 and 3/4 lengths, 8 l back to 3rd horse. This was back in June 20K claim, 21K purse. Lots of good maidens still on track then.

Going from 7F back then to 6 and 1/2 today. 30K claim, 19K purse. Much easier field.

Added factors. With fillies less fear of a 30-1 shots suddenly showing early speed than with males. Chart last race shows winner was just able to edge away very late at 7 F.

Interesting that the trainer has had 5 Breeders cup entries but more interesting he is an owner/ trainer. With 350 starts as a trainer he is 21% win and 19% place. 40% win/place great numbers.

But he owns this filly Owner trainer stats. 69 starts 25% win 25% place 50% win/place.

Sal Gonzalez Jr is no longer a top flight jockey, but he can bust a horse from the gate still. This is the 10th race. Jockeys with a mount in any race must report in before the first race. This is Sal's only mount today. I hope his wait will be worthwhile.

Workouts have all been breezing, so no speed had been asked for yet. I figure a trainer with 50% win/place rate can get a horse ready.


If LOVE NUMBERS loses blame me. If he wins , raise a toast to my late Uncle Ed.

Heading out to OTB. Twinspires will not take an account from Colorado. GRRRR !

Pass on this one. Good luck.

Got 2 Essays to write so just posting selection. Will not get even money, but it is a winner.

O' Prado Again 2nd Churchill downs.

Shackleford's last race in 3 minutes. Last chance to bet against him.

And of course he wins. A nice way to end his career. Now we'll get to bet on/against Shackleford babies in 3 years.

Shakleford goes to stud with a smile on his face. The horse of course !