AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
• Posts: 5761
September 12th, 2012 at 10:45:15 PM permalink
Hi everyone, I'm new to this site.

Obviously, when betting football, the favorite covering the spread is correlated with the over, and the underdog beating the spread is correlated with the under. This correlation is larger for larger spreads and smaller totals. Does anyone have any numbers for the correlation for specific totals and spreads?

In other words, if the fair line on a game is n points, and the fair total is m points, I want to be able to calculate the fair odds for a bet parlaying the favorite -n and the over m (or, the underdog +n and the under m).

I looked for it on the wizard of odds site and didn't find anything (although, the data for the fair price of buying half-points off specific lines was very useful!)

Any pointers would be much appreciated (I could certainly calculate it myself, given enough data, but there's no point re-inventing the wheel if the numbers are already available somewhere)

Thanks!

Ax
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
• Posts: 3265
January 8th, 2014 at 11:57:06 PM permalink
Did you ever figure this out? I was discussing this exact topic the other day... wonder if the correlation for Fav/over and dog/under is strong enough to overcome the vig.
dogman
Joined: May 29, 2010
• Posts: 17
January 10th, 2014 at 12:02:10 PM permalink
This is done mostly in CFB. You want at least 33% correlation. For example line is -17 and total is 51. Most book won't take these but locals may if you're lucky. The higher the correlation the better the play. The best way and the only way I used to play them is to bet the FIRST HALF ONLY. The correlation is stronger this way and much more likely to win. Favorite/over and also play the dog/under in parlays.

Like I said though unfortunately almost all books stopped allowing these as it is a losing bet for the sports books and a winner long term for the bettor. Some books still allow the correlations that are not as strong as above and may still be profitable but much more harder to make a profit.
Frogger
Joined: Jun 26, 2013
• Posts: 163
January 11th, 2014 at 4:19:07 PM permalink
I tried to bet this 5-6 years ago when I was in Vegas. The Venetian sportsbook manager came down from his pit to hell lots of cuss words at me for trying to bet 500.
mwalz9
Joined: Feb 7, 2012