What does it take to make money betting sports?
August 11th, 2012 at 4:06:24 AM
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Quote: MangoJExcuse me Sir, but posting picks without the odds you can get on them is hardly a proof of a winning betting system.
I NEVER said I had a "winning system".....I said by using good handicapping skills and by understanding WHAT odds reflect a Bit of an OVER LAY you could then cut the 15% house advantage down to a LOW single digit number.......if i didnt post any odds next to my pick it means i would be willing to take that horse at almost any "market price"... OR that i am SO confident that horse will be far above his fair value odds that it need not be mentioned.
August 11th, 2012 at 7:43:58 AM
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Here we go for Day 2
SARTOGA race 1....#4 LaBillos....would take this horse at anything over 5 to 1....Alvarado back on faces a a field of won 1 maiden race horses ...fits well here.
Saratoga race 10...#3 Quantity....has a hot trainer and a big late kick...some times short prices are better then long faces.
Monmouth race 2....#5 Our Gin Mill...has some back glass and good recent form....if she can best the 6 she should be the ticket....good at 5 to 2 or more
LaBillios Won maiden race at 37-1 had 7 length lead at 1/4 pole, held on to win by 1 Length
Quantify Won last race as .80 favorite Faces tougher today.
Our Gin Mill Excellent trainer but took 13 races to win last race since breaking maiden.
SARTOGA race 1....#4 LaBillos....would take this horse at anything over 5 to 1....Alvarado back on faces a a field of won 1 maiden race horses ...fits well here.
Saratoga race 10...#3 Quantity....has a hot trainer and a big late kick...some times short prices are better then long faces.
Monmouth race 2....#5 Our Gin Mill...has some back glass and good recent form....if she can best the 6 she should be the ticket....good at 5 to 2 or more
LaBillios Won maiden race at 37-1 had 7 length lead at 1/4 pole, held on to win by 1 Length
Quantify Won last race as .80 favorite Faces tougher today.
Our Gin Mill Excellent trainer but took 13 races to win last race since breaking maiden.
August 11th, 2012 at 5:49:28 PM
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2 scratches after races moved from turf to dirt.
Labillios left in muddy race as he was only lone speed. Unfortunately went off at 1:90 to 1 .
Front is where you want to be and he was under no pressure and had 2 l lead at 6f.
Unfortunately the winner loved the mud, blew by Labillos, and won under a hand ride.
3 of the 1st 6 Races at Saratoga were won under a hand ride. a 4th was won by 6L handily.
Most horses hate slippery surface and mud being thrown back at them, but some LOVE the mud. LOL
Labillios left in muddy race as he was only lone speed. Unfortunately went off at 1:90 to 1 .
Front is where you want to be and he was under no pressure and had 2 l lead at 6f.
Unfortunately the winner loved the mud, blew by Labillos, and won under a hand ride.
3 of the 1st 6 Races at Saratoga were won under a hand ride. a 4th was won by 6L handily.
Most horses hate slippery surface and mud being thrown back at them, but some LOVE the mud. LOL
August 12th, 2012 at 5:43:00 AM
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taking a day off here will be back tommorow with some horses who actually manage not to get scratched :)
August 12th, 2012 at 5:43:00 AM
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taking a day off here will be back tommorow with some horses who actually manage not to get scratched :)
August 12th, 2012 at 6:38:30 AM
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Don't worry everyone, I am paying attention to this thread. I'm in st. Louis for the weekend on a horse racing break (which means only 3 races a day). But I'll be back keeping peace between buzz and all challengers soon.
August 12th, 2012 at 8:10:25 AM
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Peace ? I did not know I was at war. LOL But my morning line has SOOPOO a 4 to 1 favorite because of the $2to win and $2 to place requirement. Were the handicapper in question allowed to bet $4 to win occasionally, I would lower the line to 2 to 1.
August 13th, 2012 at 10:10:41 AM
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my personal life was crazy the last day or two will resume the challenge tommorow currently 1 runner 0 wins 0 place
ps personally i wouldnt be betting any horses less then 3 to 1 for place but what ever ....see you tommorow
ps personally i wouldnt be betting any horses less then 3 to 1 for place but what ever ....see you tommorow
August 13th, 2012 at 11:25:09 AM
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I still think you would have a better shot with win bets only from what I have seen from your selections so far.
But do overs not allowed, well, except for steeldco MLB LOL
But do overs not allowed, well, except for steeldco MLB LOL
August 14th, 2012 at 6:27:37 AM
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DAY TWO Aug 14th
Parx Race 4....#2 Lil Dante a weak field here has some early foot, has faced better and ran a decent race at this distance in last out.
Suffolk Race 8.....will doing something here i do only once in a while namely take two horses to win in the same race.
#2 Grand Cash.... has plain ole been competitive vs better
#11 Southern Arch....certain to be a long price has been good enough to be on the board about 1/2 the time vs better horses then these if the distance is not a problem this horse could be right there at a big price.
Suffolk Race 9...once again two selections here
#6 Halo Doctor....ships in and gets a field devoid of any likely strong favorite, hasnt won in two years but has been good enough to be on the board about 33% of the time vs slightly better will be a price.
#12 Kiwi Humor....another shipper catching a very weak field.....you could find a knock on every horse in the race but has face way better and would be worth a stab at anything over 5 to 1
Parx Race 4....#2 Lil Dante a weak field here has some early foot, has faced better and ran a decent race at this distance in last out.
Suffolk Race 8.....will doing something here i do only once in a while namely take two horses to win in the same race.
#2 Grand Cash.... has plain ole been competitive vs better
#11 Southern Arch....certain to be a long price has been good enough to be on the board about 1/2 the time vs better horses then these if the distance is not a problem this horse could be right there at a big price.
Suffolk Race 9...once again two selections here
#6 Halo Doctor....ships in and gets a field devoid of any likely strong favorite, hasnt won in two years but has been good enough to be on the board about 33% of the time vs slightly better will be a price.
#12 Kiwi Humor....another shipper catching a very weak field.....you could find a knock on every horse in the race but has face way better and would be worth a stab at anything over 5 to 1
August 14th, 2012 at 11:27:31 AM
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Quote: playstkidDAY TWO Aug 14th
Parx Race 4....#2 Lil Dante a weak field here has some early foot, has faced better and ran a decent race at this distance in last out.
Suffolk Race 8.....will doing something here i do only once in a while namely take two horses to win in the same race.
#2 Grand Cash.... has plain ole been competitive vs better
#11 Southern Arch....certain to be a long price has been good enough to be on the board about 1/2 the time vs better horses then these if the distance is not a problem this horse could be right there at a big price.
Suffolk Race 9...once again two selections here
#6 Halo Doctor....ships in and gets a field devoid of any likely strong favorite, hasnt won in two years but has been good enough to be on the board about 33% of the time vs slightly better will be a price.
#12 Kiwi Humor....another shipper catching a very weak field.....you could find a knock on every horse in the race but has face way better and would be worth a stab at anything over 5 to 1
Parx Race 4
Lil Dante is facing a horse dropping down from 22K claiming to 10k today. Do agree it's a weak field other than that.
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Not a big fan of dutching, but can see doing it within the structure of this bet.
8th Suffolk
Grand Cash is on a downward spiral. 6th at 2:50 to 1 last race, 5th as 2.00 to 1 previous race,f ML favorite.
Southern Arch broke maiden on turf on 2008. in 59 starts since then he has won 8 races. None on the turf. None longer than 7 f
Today's race is 1 mile Turf
9th Suffolk
Halo Doctor Broke maiden 2 years ago. In next 15 over 9 tracks had 1 second. That at Penn national 5k claimers.
Kwii Humor Lots of Early Speed in weak field.. SCATCHED !!! Sigh.
August 14th, 2012 at 11:32:44 AM
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I'd say the only reason to pick two horses would be if you did it with minimum odds in place. Odds are you won't get the price on both, if you do, then great.
Play - I think you did say "Major tracks" - Suffolk and Parx? You're really digging deep. I guess it is Tuesday though....
Play - I think you did say "Major tracks" - Suffolk and Parx? You're really digging deep. I guess it is Tuesday though....
August 14th, 2012 at 11:37:50 AM
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Fin, the MAJOR track was in reference to where he holds an assistant trainer's license at. My guess is Monmouth !
Locked into win and place betting on each selection, I can understand dutching. Especially with an early speed horse at a price.
Locked into win and place betting on each selection, I can understand dutching. Especially with an early speed horse at a price.
August 14th, 2012 at 12:19:49 PM
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Quote: playstkidI am Fairly sure that if i looked at the morning line for a MAJOR throughbred race track............i could come up with a horse who i feel has odds way to long and be right about 7 outta 10 times......of course this is a very Tangiable thing to do by comparing what the morning line is vs what i think he should be vs what his closing odds actually are.
Buzz, this is the post I am referring to.
Being an assistant trainer is real cool, next time I'm at Monmouth I'm going to call you Play.
August 14th, 2012 at 12:20:29 PM
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I'll be at the Arlington Million this weekend, I'm hoping for picks from everyone on that race. It's tough with the Europeans though.
August 14th, 2012 at 12:32:52 PM
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Just you and me buddy. I am afraid. Will post and also bet. Sure wish i could see the post parade. Remember the INTERNATIONAL
at Laurel in late 50's and1960's Before horses regularly flew between continents. And Russia used to send their nags even LOL
Anyway i was 19 with my Dad at 59 International. Bald eagle came out onto track and Dad and i changed our bets right then and there.
One look at him prancing and ready to go was all it took. He also won it in 1960.
at Laurel in late 50's and1960's Before horses regularly flew between continents. And Russia used to send their nags even LOL
Anyway i was 19 with my Dad at 59 International. Bald eagle came out onto track and Dad and i changed our bets right then and there.
One look at him prancing and ready to go was all it took. He also won it in 1960.
August 14th, 2012 at 1:43:24 PM
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a disaterous day 0 for 3 and a poor start 0 for 4 runner not even a place :( But i got em right where i want em :)
all kidding aside i expect to get back in the hunt right quick
all kidding aside i expect to get back in the hunt right quick
August 14th, 2012 at 8:49:29 PM
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Lil Dante did indeed go to the front and had 2 length lead at 6F, but at that time 3/5 got loose after changing course and won easily.
Grand cash was favorite once again, .90 , and finished an even 5th, Still needs lesser competition.
South Arch was hard urged in the stretch to finish 7th.
Halo Doctor Joe pressed the pace early, then faded to be 4th by 20 lengths.
PLAYSTKID :
You need to get rolling NOW GOOD LUCK !
Grand cash was favorite once again, .90 , and finished an even 5th, Still needs lesser competition.
South Arch was hard urged in the stretch to finish 7th.
Halo Doctor Joe pressed the pace early, then faded to be 4th by 20 lengths.
PLAYSTKID :
You need to get rolling NOW GOOD LUCK !
August 16th, 2012 at 5:29:25 AM
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will be back before 1 pm est with a few selections today....i hopw to get back on track here....i swear in the 3 days prior to the challenge i was like 3 winners in 5 bets with 2 or the 3 being in excess of 6 to 1
