What does it take to make money betting sports?
2. Handicappers that are +EV over juice and cost of cappers if paying a capper(s).
Anything else?
There is competition out there between the books.
If you win 52 and lose 48 at -110, well... a lot of work for nothing and a loss
at -105 you have a profit.
But, -105 may not always be available.
You have to know how to do the math on a game when the lines move or a line can not be found.
A capper may post a play but it is too late to get that line.
Now what do you do?
Win rates are really useless with all the weights that are given to games.
win rate and stars do not show the true picture.
You still need to do your homework and find the best lines after you compare the game to the lines available.
Everyone wants to lose weight without diet and exercise, or by giving the least amount of effort,
bettors want to win by just following some one else's picks.
Just will not work out as planned.
I regularly give a free 1/2 point to many customers. It rarely makes a difference.
when it comes to making a line in football or horse racing........you should probably practice comparing your line to the opening and closing pts/odds.
sports betting is ABOUT VALUE......if you bet a 8 to 1 shot in horse racing that "should be" 3 to 1 you probably made a good bet wether he wins or not.
Losing bets are losing bets. No more/ no less
"Should be " is a losers way to justify his play
Quote: buzzpaff" f you bet a 8 to 1 shot in horse racing that "should be" 3 to 1 you probably made a good bet wether he wins or not. "
Losing bets are losing bets. No more/ no less
"Should be " is a losers way to justify his play
Buzz- you are so wrong you couldn't be wronger if you tried! Using horse racing as your example, it will be rare that you ever come up with a horse that is expected to win greater than 50% of the time in a given race. The whole concept of there being odds is you are to use your acumen to see if the public has not picked up on something that you have. If you identify four 8 -1 shots and lose three but win one, you are an overall winner. Using blackjack, do you believe if you double with 11 against a 5, and lose, you made a bad bet? If you go in in 3 card poker with a pair of kings but the dealer turns over aces, did you make a mistake?
Quote: SOOPOOBuzz- you are so wrong you couldn't be wronger if you tried! Using horse racing as your example, it will be rare that you ever come up with a horse that is expected to win greater than 50% of the time in a given race. The whole concept of there being odds is you are to use your acumen to see if the public has not picked up on something that you have. If you identify four 8 -1 shots and lose three but win one, you are an overall winner. Using blackjack, do you believe if you double with 11 against a 5, and lose, you made a bad bet? If you go in in 3 card poker with a pair of kings but the dealer turns over aces, did you make a mistake?
congrats SOME ONE actually got it !!
i mean if the two teams that played in the superbowl (final superbowl score was 23-20) play 8 months later on opening day and everyone is healthy and no one was traded and Team A is now a 19 point favorite did you make a bad play taking the points ? I think Not
Another thing i forgot to touch on in my post about 3 spots above is that in Horse Racing (unlike almost any other form of gambling) you could be 1/2 right.....as an example if you had a horse going off at 15 to 1 and he runs 2nd.... if he didnt win BUT had you taken a place bet as "insurance" you would get About 7 to 12 to 1 on your money depending on if he was beaten by a heavy favorite or not.
Quote: playstkidI am Fairly sure that if i looked at the morning line for a MAJOR throughbred race track............i could come up with a horse who i feel has odds way to long and be right about 7 outta 10 times......of course this is a very Tangiable thing to do by comparing what the morning line is vs what i think he should be vs what his closing odds actually are.
Then you should do it. You will make quite a bit of money. And you'll make more money putting the horse in the exotics than you would betting them to win/place.
In my blog here at WoV last year I had a "coin flip betting system" for fun. Scan it to see how if you bet every game the vig starts to eat you alive.
A second key to me is that if you want to make money at it, you need to learn to bet MLB, or at least more than the NFL. There are not enough football games good enough to bet, and the public bets on football so much the lines are harder to beat. Larn MLB or college hoops. Advantage to MLB is that unless you know that you have to sit out the summer.
Quote: SOOPOOBuzz- you are so wrong you couldn't be wronger if you tried! Using horse racing as your example, it will be rare that you ever come up with a horse that is expected to win greater than 50% of the time in a given race. The whole concept of there being odds is you are to use your acumen to see if the public has not picked up on something that you have. If you identify four 8 -1 shots and lose three but win one, you are an overall winner. Using blackjack, do you believe if you double with 11 against a 5, and lose, you made a bad bet? If you go in in 3 card poker with a pair of kings but the dealer turns over aces, did you make a mistake?
I can only assume you are having a HB moment. Where do I start ? a 3 to1 shot will win less than 1 in 4 times. But we will say it wins 1 in 4 times. And instead of 8 to 1, lets use 7 to 1 so you can bet enough on that 8 to 1 shot in the mutual pool to be profitable.
Bet $200 4times, collect 1600 when you win. 100 % return on investment. ROFLMAO.
The horse that looks like he should be 3 to 1 is 8-1 for a good reason. Stepping up in class, too much weight, no stable money today,
washed out in post parade, tracks was gast 2 races ago,is sloppy now, and on and on and on!!!!
I can find ahorse that will win more than 50% of the
time each and every day. They are called odds-on favorites. If you bet them,you
will lose less than 10% on average.
I will gladly bet you even money everyday that my selection for that day will win. But by now you have come to your senses !
And using a BJ analogy ? Come on, that is beneath you. Cards have no memory, just like dice. But horses, jockey, trainers all have different brains.
And you have a brain too, so I will be getting no action on my pick of the day. SIGH
Quote: playstkidcongrats SOME ONE actually got it !!
i mean if the two teams that played in the superbowl (final superbowl score was 23-20) play 8 months later on opening day and everyone is healthy and no one was traded and Team A is now a 19 point favorite did you make a bad play taking the points ? I think Not
Oh yeah, that happens so often I forgot all about it !
Still waiting to collect on the Colts -23 versus the Jets in Super Bowl 23.
And the betting public, what do they know compared to you REALLY ???
Half right or half baked. Betting longshots to place is a sucker bet..
a 15 to 1 shot with a favorite will pay closer to 5 to 1 than 7 to 1. 7 to 1 is what you will get with a non-favorite,
Finsrule is too nice to say it so I will. On the matter of horse racing, both you and SOOPOO are IGNORANT.
Post police, please notice I said IGNORANT and not STUPID !
Bookmakers love guys who insure their bets, Sure sign of a chump.
Quote: buzzpaffOh yeah, you are so much more likely to have the correct morning line than the handicapper at the track. REALLY ?
And the betting public, what do they know compared to you REALLY ???
The morning line is what the track EXPECTS the odds to be, not what it thinks the FAIR odds are.
I agree about betting long shots. You are much better off betting short odds horses.
Quote: 1arrowheaddrQuote: buzzpaffOh yeah, you are so much more likely to have the correct morning line than the handicapper at the track. REALLY ?
And the betting public, what do they know compared to you REALLY ???
The morning line is what the track EXPECTS the odds to be, not what the FAIR odds are.
Next you will be telling me the handicapper expects 3 or 4 horses every race to go off at 20-1. And that heexpected that first time starter to be bet down to 2 to 1 without him picking it as the favorite.
Wish i was a genius like you and could find all those longshots that are overlays.
Wow, 2 longshots in a exacta pay good, Thanks for sharing that unknown fact with everybody.
Quote: buzzpaffThe horse that looks like he should be 3 to 1 is 8-1 for a good reason. Stepping up in class, too much weight, no stable money today, washed out in post parade, tracks was gast 2 races ago,is sloppy now, and on and on and on!!!!
Right. At the major tracks, you're not going to be able to get 8-1 on a 3-1 horse. There's too many knowledgeable horse players to let that happen. You might be able to get something like 9/2 on a horse that should be 3-1, but then you're really only getting fair odds with the track take.
No one consistently makes money betting W-P-S by simply looking at a program and making a selection. If you're going to the track for fun for a day, then you could win a little or lose a little that day by doing that. To win, you need to know more than what the program says.
The only way to make money is by betting exotics and not having the favorite win those exotics.
Buzz can disagree with me, and he is entitled to that.
Quote: buzzpaff8 to 13 loses overall at a rate twice the track take.
Your response is akin to when another player tells me I made a mistake in 3CP when I raise with 258, with a 4 for the flashing dealer. The play was not optimal under one set of circumstances (the other player who didn't see the flash), but was in my circumstance because I had additional information.
If you go to the track and bet on EVERY (no handicapping, betting blind) 10 to 1 horse and every even money horse, you will lose less money playing the even money shot. That DOES NOT mean it is a better bet for a skilled player. Since horse racing is a negative expectation game with a 15-25% hold. A horse handicapper has perform SIGNIFICANTLY better than the average bettor to win.
Quote: buzzpaffWow, 2 longshots in a exacta pay good, Thanks for sharing that unknown fact with everybody.
I was discussing betting horses going off between 8 and 13 to 1 and betting them together in exactas. I read a couple of horse betting theory books published in the early 80's which analyzed thousands of horse races in the 70's. The conclusion was that bettors strongly preferred to have one of the favorites in their exacta (of course), but they were preferred so strongly, that betting an exacta with two horses with odds between 8 and 13 or so , where undervalued in the exacta pool. Now this by itself is not enough to overcome the track take out. However, with skilled handicapping, horses sliding into this spot could be identified to give the bettor an edge. I don't know if the conclusion reached in the 80's is still true or not.
Beating horse racing is going to be VERY difficult and one must be a skilled handicapper. Of course losing players will make excuses, just as all losing gamblers do.
WOW favorites are an underlay in exotic bets. DUH
8 and 13 shots still do not overcome the 23-30 % in exotics,
I know about the 80's. it is not true ? and with the short fields today, it is less true.
Not very difficult, Damn near impossible unless you are an owner or trainer.
I will leave out jockeys because I made a lot of money booking their bets LOL
Buzz can disagree with me, and he is entitled to that.
Fin, surely you do not mean it is the ONLY way. I will admit if I have a strong overlay I will bet him in the Trifecta.
Key eo win over 3 down from 50-1. Have hit a few over $1,000. Last week at Penn National had a 2 to1 first time starter
with blazing workd from gate going 5 furlong. Favorite was 8 to 5 quiter. My pick won and 13 and 17 ran second and third,
For $678.
But I usually bet win and place, Just old school, I guess.
You can learn a lot from books especially language of horses if at the track. But no book or books will make you a winner.
I have seen pace handicapping, trouble remarks, trip handicapping, Byers figs, etc. all come and go.
Hard work reading charters, identifying trainer jockey trends being at track if possible, betting with twin spires where you can set the minimum odds you willtake at 1 minute to post, and you are just starting.
We're 30 people in the book, and half of them are people without much clue (relatives, wifes, friends). So I guess even with some moderate knowledge it is +EV. It's a lot of fun - and from 4 seasons I played i was in the points 3 times...
Back in the 1950's my mom worked at a ski factory in Baltimore. they had a hundred square pool on the Colts football team , but could never sell at the squares so each quarter paid less than $25.
Maybe they could have sold out if they had not posted the numbers before trying to sell the squares. LOL
Quote: buzzpaffOh yeah, you are so much more likely to have the correct morning line than the handicapper at the track. REALLY ?
And the betting public, what do they know compared to you REALLY ???
Half right or half baked. Betting longshots to place is a sucker bet..
a 15 to 1 shot with a favorite will pay closer to 5 to 1 than 7 to 1. 7 to 1 is what you will get with a non-favorite,
Finsrule is too nice to say it so I will. On the matter of horse racing, both you and SOOPOO are IGNORANT.
Post police, please notice I said IGNORANT and not STUPID !
Bookmakers love guys who insure their bets, Sure sign of a chump.
Quote: playstkid
wow BS already huh ? Happened that i had a 7 to 1 shot win the 0th at saratoga today that should have been 3 to 1....p.s. i also happen to hold an asst trainers lic at a MAJOR track....yea i guess i dont know shit about racing LOL
Quote: 1arrowheaddrThe morning line is what the track EXPECTS the odds to be, not what it thinks the FAIR odds are.
I agree about betting long shots. You are much better off betting short odds horses.
A horse you like should ALWAYS be worth a Win AND place bet unless shorter then 9 to 5 then just win......I cant tell you how many times i have seen guys bet their lungs on a 2 to 1 shot to win but they wont make a place bet on a 9 to 1 shot ....so who's the chump huh ? go figure
Quote: playstkidA horse you like should ALWAYS be worth a Win AND place bet unless shorter then 9 to 5 then just win......I cant tell you how many times i have seen guys bet their lungs on a 2 to 1 shot to win but they wont make a place bet on a 9 to 1 shot ....so who's the chump huh ? go figure
I would rather use a longshot (8-1 or better) first and second in an exacta.
Too many times a longshot will share the pool with the favorite, reducing the mutuel.
Why this of course!
and a DeLorean with a Flux Capacitor.
Quote: MakingBookI would rather use a longshot (8-1 or better) first and second in an exacta.
Too many times a longshot will share the pool with the favorite, reducing the mutuel.
WOW i think you guys should stick to casino betting......exotic betting (with the possiable exception of lotto like pick sixes) is the road to the poor house with its 25% house take out.
Quote: slytherand a DeLorean with a Flux Capacitor.
And a sport book which will accept your bets.
Wait a minute ... it would be far more profitable to actually run a sportbook by yourself.
Quote: playstkidwow BS already huh ? Happened that i had a 7 to 1 shot win the 0th at saratoga today that should have been 3 to 1....p.s. i also happen to hold an asst trainers lic at a MAJOR track....yea i guess i dont know shit about racing LOL
The morning line was 7/2, so I guess 3-1 isn't that far off. For some reason the two got too much action, that's why your horse drifted up. But anyone can find horses that go off better than morning line odds. I want you to show one (ahead of time) that's morning line odds are 8-1, you pick it and it wins. I believe you said you could do it at a 70% rate... I'll even count one like this if you post it ahead of time and it actually drifts up. But Cytherean was 2nd choice on morning line, hardly a longshot pick.
Quote: FinsRuleThe morning line was 7/2, so I guess 3-1 isn't that far off. For some reason the two got too much action, that's why your horse drifted up. But anyone can find horses that go off better than morning line odds. I want you to show one (ahead of time) that's morning line odds are 8-1, you pick it and it wins. I believe you said you could do it at a 70% rate... I'll even count one like this if you post it ahead of time and it actually drifts up. But Cytherean was 2nd choice on morning line, hardly a longshot pick.
Huh What are you talking about ???? I have yet to mention a specific horse.......I didnt say i could pick 8 to 1 shots at a 70% clip only a delussional moron would make such a claim.....I said i could 70% horses that were 8 to 1 M/L and then go off at lower odds.
IF you want to see horses i believe are OVERLAYS Then i could post those selections.......I will select 25 races over the course of several days....THE ONLY CLAIM I WILL MAKE is that I believe MY ROI (return on investment) while possiably not a profit will be Better then the 15% house take out.
The Roi would be vs a Win and/or Place bet.....fair enough ?
I will also have to post my selections several hours before race one as most of the time i will be at work with no computer access.
horses who did not start for what ever reason will be considered non runners not a selection and loss.
horses who are part of an entry but NOT the exact horse i selected will not count as wins.
I could start to post in a day or two if those rules are fair enough.
Quote: playstkidwow BS already huh ? Happened that i had a 7 to 1 shot win the 0th at saratoga today that should have been 3 to 1....p.s. i also happen to hold an asst trainers lic at a MAJOR track....yea i guess i dont know shit about racing LOL
I assumed this meant the 10th. And a 7-1 shot won that race...
Quote: playstkidHuh What are you talking about ???? I have yet to mention a specific horse.......I didnt say i could pick 8 to 1 shots at a 70% clip only a delussional moron would make such a claim.....I said i could 70% horses that were 8 to 1 M/L and then go off at lower odds.
IF you want to see horses i believe are OVERLAYS Then i could post those selections.......I will select 25 races over the course of several days....THE ONLY CLAIM I WILL MAKE is that I believe MY ROI (return on investment) while possiably not a profit will be Better then the 15% house take out.
The Roi would be vs a Win and/or Place bet.....fair enough ?
I will also have to post my selections several hours before race one as most of the time i will be at work with no computer access.
horses who did not start for what ever reason will be considered non runners not a selection and loss.
horses who are part of an entry but NOT the exact horse i selected will not count as wins.
I could start to post in a day or two if those rules are fair enough.
Go for it! So you will post a horse's name, the track, and what race, and we will assume you bet $2 to win and $2 to place on that horse, correct? How about this... you just have to be up, any amount, after 100 horses. I'll trust you not to pick extreme longshots at the end when you are down a lot, but rather use whatever system of horse selection you currently use now. The bet will be a dinner at some future time and place.
I know you said you would just be down less than the average bettor, but what is the fun in betting how much you'll be down?
Quote: SOOPOOGo for it! So you will post a horse's name, the track, and what race, and we will assume you bet $2 to win and $2 to place on that horse, correct? How about this... you just have to be up, any amount, after 100 horses. I'll trust you not to pick extreme longshots at the end when you are down a lot, but rather use whatever system of horse selection you currently use now. The bet will be a dinner at some future time and place.
I know you said you would just be down less than the average bettor, but what is the fun in betting how much you'll be down?
will do 25 races I just dont have the free personal time to post 100 selections......been going well lately i hope i can keep it in that direction.
all bets $2 to win and place .....all are bets unless i specify an odds condition.
sat aug 10th
monmouth race 2.....#3 Princess Perfect
mommouth race 10....#3 Christmas Flys at anything above 4 to 1
Saratoga race 8.....#5 Preachingtothedevil
Quote: playstkidwill do 25 races I just dont have the free personal time to post 100 selections......been going well lately i hope i can keep it in that direction.
all bets $2 to win and place .....all are bets unless i specify an odds condition.
sat aug 10th
monmouth race 2.....#3 Princess Perfect
mommouth race 10....#3 Christmas Flys at anything above 4 to 1
Saratoga race 8.....#5 Preachingtothedevil
and i dont wanna hear crap IF I go 0 for 3 today this is all about 25 races not 2 or 3 or even 7
Christmas Flys Last 2 races 90 days ago 25K claiming race 30 days ago 16k claiming Trainer hits board 70% of the time.
Trainer places horses where they belong. Today he believes horse belongs with 5K claimers.
Preachingtothedevil. Has not raced for 9 and 1/2 months. Has 3 career wins. 7F 1M 1M & 70 yards
Being asks to win at 6&1/2 F after this layoff. Has yet to have a workout at 12 seconds per furlong or less
7 wo in 7 weeks.
You already Lost your 1st bet when you predicted i wouldnt show up for the challenge.
Quote: playstkidHey Buzz how old are you ?.... 13 ?..... Maybe... 14 ? Your starting to act like a real asshole critiquing selections that haven't even run yet.....MAYBE you should keep in mind I hold an asst trainers Lic at a MAJOR race track. I 've won over a quarter of a million dollars playing horses over the last 20 years...I think i have a ball park idea of what i am doing ok.
You already Lost your 1st bet when you predicted i wouldnt show up for the challenge.
Thanks for posting your picks. Buzz is substantially older, I think like 90 or so. But I disagree with you, playstkid, on assailing his pre race comments. I think they were totally in line. He, BEFORE the races, made his comments why he did not like your picks. I think that is what we want on this forum, two guys, you and buzz, putting their selections out there for all to see. If your picks do well then Buzz has to eat crow, if he is correct then perhaps you do. By the way, my sister lives almost walking distance from Monmouth. Are you nearby?
I was extremely careful to draw no conclusion on those facts,
SOOPOO My comments DID NOT imply I did not like his picks. I refrained from any editorial comments.
Just stating his win/loss record was enough to chase AP horse player away , leave just me and Finn as the resident admitted horse players. I am hoping this poster sticks around and wish him well.
I have fired for effect several times and steeldco and he continues to post his picks. The measure of a man is how he acts when things are not going his way. My pet peeve is guys who were born on third base and think they have hit a triple.
Hopefully besides posting his selections, he might state why he likes them today ?
Winners time 1:12
Princess Perfect 1:14
mommouth race 10....#3 Christmas Flys at anything above 4 to 1
Closed at 3.50 to 1, winner #8 got all the late action. Was 8-5 a 4mtp, 1-1 at 2MTP, went off at 3-5 and won by
6 1/4 lengths
Now I hope you will stay for the challenge. And agree that my posts are just about the horse in play and the results.
runners 1.. 0 0
Here we go for Day 2
SARTOGA race 1....#4 LaBillos....would take this horse at anything over 5 to 1....Alvarado back on faces a a field of won 1 maiden race horses ...fits well here.
Saratoga race 10...#3 Quantity....has a hot trainer and a big late kick...some times short prices are better then long faces.
Monmouth race 2....#5 Our Gin Mill...has some back glass and good recent form....if she can best the 6 she should be the ticket....good at 5 to 2 or more
Quote: playstkidHere we go for Day 2
Excuse me Sir, but posting picks without the odds you can get on them is hardly a proof of a winning betting system.
Supposedly its an open information game, in that if others learn the quarterback was out late doing two grams of cocaine and four co-eds, their knowledge will move the line and the moved line is transmitted to all bettors who then act upon the market information as well. So I guess it takes lots of rumors to win at sports betting.
