Slot game RTP% SD ?!
I would like to ask the opinion of experts, question about the standard mathematical deviation of the RTP.
Let's assume we take a game with medium volatility and 96 RTP%. What is the normal (acceptable) spread of deviations for 1 million spins, 2m., 3m., 5m.?
At what distance does the machine reach its theoretical RTP with 99% probability?
Quote: DobrijHi to all !
I would like to ask the opinion of experts, question about the standard mathematical deviation of the RTP.
Let's assume we take a game with medium volatility and 96 RTP%. What is the normal (acceptable) spread of deviations for 1 million spins, 2m., 3m., 5m.?
At what distance does the machine reach its theoretical RTP with 99% probability?
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I don’t think your question is worded clearly enough for someone with the ability to give you an answer.
After 5 million spins, the likelihood of a machine being at its EXACT mathematical RTP is close to zero. If by your 99% comment you mean ‘within 1%’ , then you are asking how likely the RTP will be between 95 and 97%, then that likelihood is EXTREMELY high. Nearly ‘always’.
Quote: SOOPOO
I don’t think your question is worded clearly enough for someone with the ability to give you an answer.
After 5 million spins, the likelihood of a machine being at its EXACT mathematical RTP is close to zero. If by your 99% comment you mean ‘within 1%’ , then you are asking how likely the RTP will be between 95 and 97%, then that likelihood is EXTREMELY high. Nearly ‘always’.
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Judging by your comment, you make it clear that you understand the issue. What calculation tools do you have? Okay, then I will rephrase the question:
- What range (+/- from and to) will the game(medium volatility, with theoretical 96 RTP%) be in after:
1 million spins?
After 2 million?
After 3 million?
After 5 million?
what you want is the confidence interval for some number of plays.
to find it:
choose the confidence value you want (90%, 95%, 8%, etc).
go to z score table or student's t distribution (bottom row) to find critical value--'member to account for both tails!
multiply the game's standard deviation times the critical value
divide the product by square of games played
subtract the quotient from from rtp to get lower bound
add the quotient from the rtp to get upper bound
medium volatility is pretty meaningless. i have a buncha par sheets from a buncha makers. I have no idea how they go from VI to words or stars or whatever. cannot do it not even once.
Quote: itsmejeffthe range could be anything from 0 to n*max single game pay.
what you want is the confidence interval for some number of plays.
to find it:
choose the confidence value you want (90%, 95%, 8%, etc).
go to z score table or student's t distribution (bottom row) to find critical value--'member to account for both tails!
multiply the game's standard deviation times the critical value
divide the product by square of games played
subtract the quotient from from rtp to get lower bound
add the quotient from the rtp to get upper bound
medium volatility is pretty meaningless. i have a buncha par sheets from a buncha makers. I have no idea how they go from VI to words or stars or whatever. cannot do it not even once.
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This is understandable, but the question is different.
You can give an example of ranges for any few games (with RTP ~96%) at your discretion for the distance of 1, 2, 3, and 5 million spins?
The first PAR sheet I opened is labeled "medium" volatility. For 0.90 RTP, the standard deviation is 3.45.
I am not sure what makes this one "medium" volatility, but that is what they call it. I have seen other video games with higher std dev that are not considered medium. This is a very confusing part of gamble math.
90% CI is used, so the VI is 5.68.
At 1,000,000 plays, range is 0.89432 to 0.90568 for 90% RTP option.
They don't have the other numbers you want, but you can math them yourself.
Quote: itsmejeff
At 1,000,000 plays, range is 0.89432 to 0.90568 for 90% RTP option.
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According to your calculations, it turns out to be only -0.5%_+0.5%, which in my opinion is too little, such a small spread can be found in a game with minimal volatility (for example, the odds of red/black in roulette).
According to my calculations and observations, for 1 million spins, even with low slot volatility slot game the spread is no less than -9%_+7%
Quote: Dobrij
According to my calculations and observations, for 1 million spins, even with low slot volatility slot game the spread is no less than -9%_+7%
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Oops! I made a mistake because I took a deviation with mixed bets.
Now I made 20 simulations x1 million spins, took the probability model: (IGT Game Cleopatra, RTP 95%)
At distances 1 mil. spins from 93.91% to 98.24% (-1.1%_+3,2%)
At distances 100k spins from 89.0% to 109.7% (-6%_+14.7%)
