EV and Advantage Slots
November 5th, 2024 at 2:30:03 AM
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Just wondering is the theoretical RTP of a slot inclusive of any progressive feature(s) average trigger value? Eg if a Money Balls (an advantage slot) RTP is 92% and the progressive component feature hits at say 10 on average, is that factored into the 92% RTP? Or is the RTP based on it hitting at 5 (its base value) on average? Obviously this makes a difference in determining the playable numbers.
Likewise, is a Buffalo Link with the same RTP (eg 92%) set based on assuming the progressive component bonus hits at 100 on average or 950? Since 950 is halfway of the set range.
I hope that makes sense. Thanks!
Likewise, is a Buffalo Link with the same RTP (eg 92%) set based on assuming the progressive component bonus hits at 100 on average or 950? Since 950 is halfway of the set range.
I hope that makes sense. Thanks!
November 5th, 2024 at 2:37:44 AM
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As I understand, the overall RTP includes any progressives. Some observation and arithmetic can get you to the RTP of the 'base game'.
May the cards fall in your favor.
November 5th, 2024 at 2:44:03 AM
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You are correct, but I’m wondering if it’s the average trigger value of the progressive/persistent state bonus that is included in the progressive contribution from the RTP or if it is the base value?
November 5th, 2024 at 2:50:51 AM
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Quote: Roberto21You are correct, but I’m wondering if it’s the average trigger value of the progressive/persistent state bonus that is included in the progressive contribution from the RTP or if it is the base value?
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I hadn't understood that part of the question.
I'm hoping that an expert can jump in.
I think that the average trigger value pushes the variance of the progressive component, but not the RTP. I'm happy to hear why my understanding is wrong.
May the cards fall in your favor.
November 5th, 2024 at 4:03:47 AM
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I guess I’m trying to understand how the playable numbers are determined on advantage slot games. I assume you estimate the overall return then estimate the progressive contribution from the RTP, eg say the Money Balls feature returns 20% of the overall RTP, and say it hits at 10 on average, therefore each money ball is worth 2% in EV and so with a 92% RTP, you would need 14 Money balls to break even. And likewise with Buffalo Link, assuming the same RTP and progressive contribution, we know that it hits at 950 on average so 20% divided by 850 = 0.024, therefore each buffalo is worth 0.024% in EV and therefore with a 92% RTP you would need roughly 1283 buffalo to breakeven. These are just made up values, but I’m guessing that’s the basic premise behind Slot AP math.
On a side note, I wonder how many slot AP’s actually do their own math on the games instead of blindly following what they see online 🤔
On a side note, I wonder how many slot AP’s actually do their own math on the games instead of blindly following what they see online 🤔
November 5th, 2024 at 4:08:48 AM
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Quote: Roberto21You are correct, but I’m wondering if it’s the average trigger value of the progressive/persistent state bonus that is included in the progressive contribution from the RTP or if it is the base value?
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The RTP represents the "cost" to the casino. For a regular progressive prize, the "reset" value is included in RTP while the contribution from each play, win, whatever is not. The contribution is listed separately because it can usually be turned off and regulations require minimum RTP values in many jurisdictions. Turning it off lowers total RTP.
Free games or picks or whatever works the same way. The New Slot Machine Game has an accumulating free games feature that has a 1/150 probability of being won. Each play has a 1/10 chance of adding a free game. The meter starts at 5. What is average number of free games? What is the contribution to the return if the average free game plays an average of 3 on average? Show your work for partial credit.
plays per bonus is 1/1/150 = 150.
added free games is 150 * 1/10 = 15
total free games is base plus addeds, so 5 + 15
average free games is 20.
return is 1/150 * (20*3) = 0.40
it gets more complicated with "must hit by" things, so I will leave the explanation of that for a math expert.
if you don't believe me, here's a thing:
let [games, freeGames, sessions] = [0, 0, 1000000]
for (i = 0; i < sessions; i++) {
let sessionFreeGames = 5;
let won = false
let gamesPlayed = 0;
while (won != true) {
gamesPlayed++
let rand = (Math.floor(Math.random() * 150));
if(rand == 0) {
won = true;
} else if(rand <= 15) {
sessionFreeGames++;
}
}
games += gamesPlayed;
freeGames += sessionFreeGames;
}
console.log("games between wins: " + games/sessions);
console.log("average free games won: " + freeGames/sessions);
November 5th, 2024 at 2:49:55 PM
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Quote: itsmejeffQuote: Roberto21You are correct, but I’m wondering if it’s the average trigger value of the progressive/persistent state bonus that is included in the progressive contribution from the RTP or if it is the base value?
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The RTP represents the "cost" to the casino. For a regular progressive prize, the "reset" value is included in RTP while the contribution from each play, win, whatever is not. The contribution is listed separately because it can usually be turned off and regulations require minimum RTP values in many jurisdictions. Turning it off lowers total RTP.
Free games or picks or whatever works the same way. The New Slot Machine Game has an accumulating free games feature that has a 1/150 probability of being won. Each play has a 1/10 chance of adding a free game. The meter starts at 5. What is average number of free games? What is the contribution to the return if the average free game plays an average of 3 on average? Show your work for partial credit.
plays per bonus is 1/1/150 = 150.
added free games is 150 * 1/10 = 15
total free games is base plus addeds, so 5 + 15
average free games is 20.
return is 1/150 * (20*3) = 0.40
it gets more complicated with "must hit by" things, so I will leave the explanation of that for a math expert.
Thank you for the detailed answer, but just so I’m understanding you correct, does that mean if the theoretical RTP is say 92% then playing the game at reset would give you an effective RTP much lower than 92%, and that the 92% RTP is therefore based on the average at which the accumulator bonus hits on average? If that makes sense?
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Nov 27, 2024
November 6th, 2024 at 4:48:58 AM
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Quote: Roberto21Just wondering is the theoretical RTP of a slot inclusive of any progressive feature(s) average trigger value? Eg if a Money Balls (an advantage slot) RTP is 92% and the progressive component feature hits at say 10 on average, is that factored into the 92% RTP? Or is the RTP based on it hitting at 5 (its base value) on average? Obviously this makes a difference in determining the playable numbers.
Likewise, is a Buffalo Link with the same RTP (eg 92%) set based on assuming the progressive component bonus hits at 100 on average or 950? Since 950 is halfway of the set range.
I hope that makes sense. Thanks!
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Hit rates are random.
I've had buffalo link hit at 1500 then hit again while in the feature at 107.
In vp, I've seen someone hit a $4k Royal then a few hands later before the slot attendant reach the exit to the room, he got another Royal.
Odds of a Royal is about 1 in 40k hands, on avg.
On avg is the key. It can hit at any time.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
November 7th, 2024 at 6:51:05 AM
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Quote: Roberto21Thank you for the detailed answer, but just so I’m understanding you correct, does that mean if the theoretical RTP is say 92% then playing the game at reset would give you an effective RTP much lower than 92%, and that the 92% RTP is therefore based on the average at which the accumulator bonus hits on average? If that makes sense?
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Maybe. It comes down to the game. You would need to look at PAR sheets or have one of the people who design/audit games for a living answer that. I have never seen actual math for a persistent state machine. We could make a fake one, but we do not know how much of the return normally comes from the persistent state element.
I used a rather extreme example to make the math easy. The "base" scenario bonus would pay out less (average) than an average scenario bonus and much less than a supercharged bonus scenario. when I was ran the little thing, one of the "sessions" went 1362 games between bonuses. the number of free games would be on fire and taking up two screens.
But it would all be the same on the casinos end. In the example game, the casino is giving out one free game every 7.5 plays.
November 26th, 2024 at 1:59:52 AM
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I have a engineering degree and most APs are jokes who only follow blindly stuff they get told but the absolute dumbest stuff is there are some sharp math guys who take the time to figure the stuff out track it then brag about their intellect and then give away their play numbers to the dumb unsophisticated APs but now they have play points and proceeed to reap the benefits.
November 26th, 2024 at 9:11:44 PM
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Thamptondmd and Mathodds123 both nuked in violation of the one account per person rule.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 27th, 2024 at 8:22:53 AM
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Quote: WizardThamptondmd and Mathodds123 both nuked in violation of the one account per person rule.
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Thamptondmd and Mathodds123 were both reinstated by Wizard, after he reversed his decision.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
November 27th, 2024 at 3:58:57 PM
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Quote: gordonm888Quote: WizardThamptondmd and Mathodds123 both nuked in violation of the one account per person rule.
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Thamptondmd and Mathodds123 were both reinstated by Wizard, after he reversed his decision.
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So what was the mistake?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
November 27th, 2024 at 5:08:33 PM
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Quote: 100xOdds
So what was the mistake?
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Initially, they appeared to be duplicate accounts.
Upon review, they were deemed not to be duplicate accounts.
May the cards fall in your favor.
