it's time to talk about the "cowboy slot method"

For those of you who don't know "cowboy slots" is a youtube channel hosted by a slot tech. There are a lot of folks (including him on occasion) who say you can "build a bankroll" by playing low volatility slots. My issue with this is not the contention that there's value in playing low volatility slots for some players. My issue is when he and his champions start claiming you can play low volatility slots as a means of building a bankroll.

Let's be absolutely clear about what "building a bankroll" actually means. It means playing games where you have a statistical edge over the house such that, with enough play, you will end up with more money than you started. It does NOT mean dumping money into a negative expectation game that happens to have lower variance and hoping that you'll get lucky. That's not a reliable method to build your bankroll. That's a reliable method to give your money to the casino.

For example (and sorry for the google step - I'm too new on this board to post links) google for 20091117_harrigan_dixon.pdf and look at pg9 of the doc.

That's the PAR sheet for Double Diamond - one of the games he talks about. Note at the bottom how even at 1k spins, with a confidence interval of 90%, you're more likely than not going to leave with less money than you started with. Lower volatility does not mean you'll automatically make money. This is still a slot machine. You're still playing at a statistical disadvantage. Unless you're playing a game with some form of persistent state you can take advantage of you're going to lose money more than you win.

So please please please - don't listen to anyone who tells you this "method" is a reliable means of "building your bankroll". It absolutely is not.

(end of rant)

I prefer to build my bankroll by Martingaling Triple 0 Roulette.

Quote: TigerWu

I prefer to build my bankroll by Martingaling Triple 0 Roulette.
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As they have aways said the best way to win money gambling is to be the casino.

Quote: DRich

Quote: TigerWu

I prefer to build my bankroll by Martingaling Triple 0 Roulette.
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As they have aways said the best way to win money gambling is to be the casino.
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If you have the edge over a casino game you are the casino

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DRich

Quote: TigerWu

I prefer to build my bankroll by Martingaling Triple 0 Roulette.
link to original post

As they have aways said the best way to win money gambling is to be the casino.
link to original post

If you have the edge over a casino game you are the casino
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Only if you have an edge over every game.

Quote: fartbot

For those of you who don't know "cowboy slots" is a youtube channel hosted by a slot tech. There are a lot of folks (including him on occasion) who say you can "build a bankroll" by playing low volatility slots. My issue with this is not the contention that there's value in playing low volatility slots for some players. My issue is when he and his champions start claiming you can play low volatility slots as a means of building a bankroll.

Let's be absolutely clear about what "building a bankroll" actually means. It means playing games where you have a statistical edge over the house such that, with enough play, you will end up with more money than you started. It does NOT mean dumping money into a negative expectation game that happens to have lower variance and hoping that you'll get lucky. That's not a reliable method to build your bankroll. That's a reliable method to give your money to the casino.

For example (and sorry for the google step - I'm too new on this board to post links) google for 20091117_harrigan_dixon.pdf and look at pg9 of the doc.

That's the PAR sheet for Double Diamond - one of the games he talks about. Note at the bottom how even at 1k spins, with a confidence interval of 90%, you're more likely than not going to leave with less money than you started with. Lower volatility does not mean you'll automatically make money. This is still a slot machine. You're still playing at a statistical disadvantage. Unless you're playing a game with some form of persistent state you can take advantage of you're going to lose money more than you win.

So please please please - don't listen to anyone who tells you this "method" is a reliable means of "building your bankroll". It absolutely is not.

(end of rant)
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pretty sure weve all denounced that dude and knew he was a fraud... we probably had alot to do with why he never kept doing videos... id be sad if one of the best casino information resources, including the wizard just tell you your wrong - lol

its also sad about how much time he claims to have in the industry, and yet he still didnt know s ha t about slot machines.

I welcome people like him with a big platform spreading slot machine misinformation. The fewer people who ACTUALLY know how to play slots correctly, the better.

Quote: McSweeney

I welcome people like him with a big platform spreading slot machine misinformation. The fewer people who ACTUALLY know how to play slots correctly, the better.
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i want to like this post so here it is

I'm sure the Double Diamond machine where I played only paid 66.7% back to the player. Maybe it was set for 86.7%, but without hitting any kind of a jackpot, the real payback in the very short term was 2/3rds. And it wasn't just that machine, it was a whole lot of machines. Play 1,000 spins and see what you get back, you'll be in that 90% who lost club. But for a quarter a spin times 240 spins I was risking $60 and losing $20 which was about all the casino gave me to play with each day.

I'll stick to semi-fair video black jack or video roulette or video craps or even video crapless craps (just playing the 6 & 8 with $1 on the PL).

Seems whenever a new regular slot machine came into the casino it was paying off to profit for a month then they tightened it down so hard I had to walk away. The number one complaint I hear among slot players is the slots are so much tighter now. Well, they were so tight the last time you came and they are so much tighter now, god knows how tight they set them. Just wondering if you get 2/3rds of your money back or 1/2.

Quote: ChumpChange

I'm sure the Double Diamond machine where I played only paid 66.7% back to the player. Maybe it was set for 86.7%, but without hitting any kind of a jackpot, the real payback in the very short term was 2/3rds. And it wasn't just that machine, it was a whole lot of machines. Play 1,000 spins and see what you get back, you'll be in that 90% who lost club. But for a quarter a spin times 240 spins I was risking $60 and losing $20 which was about all the casino gave me to play with each day.

I'll stick to semi-fair video black jack or video roulette or video craps or even video crapless craps (just playing the 6 & 8 with $1 on the PL).

Seems whenever a new regular slot machine came into the casino it was paying off to profit for a month then they tightened it down so hard I had to walk away. The number one complaint I hear among slot players is the slots are so much tighter now. Well, they were so tight the last time you came and they are so much tighter now, god knows how tight they set them. Just wondering if you get 2/3rds of your money back or 1/2.
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Idk how true this is for that game but a lot of the par sheets that I have show that the jackpot is actually apart of the total return. So based on what you say I don’t doubt the return is very low for just the base game.

Quote: ChumpChange

I'm sure the Double Diamond machine where I played only paid 66.7% back to the player. Maybe it was set for 86.7%, but without hitting any kind of a jackpot, the real payback in the very short term was 2/3rds. And it wasn't just that machine, it was a whole lot of machines. Play 1,000 spins and see what you get back, you'll be in that 90% who lost club. But for a quarter a spin times 240 spins I was risking $60 and losing $20 which was about all the casino gave me to play with each day.

The probability of getting the top prize of 2500 on 3cm 3r1l Double Diamond is 8/72^3. 8/(72^3) * 2500/3 = 0.01786122542. If you never ever got the top prize playing forever games, your return would drop by slightly less than 2%. The probability of the second most highest payingest prize is 24/72^3 (or 28/72^3 at 80% or 36/72^3 at 75%). The cost of not getting the second highest prize ever in a purgatory of Double Diamond is a 2.058% ding to the return. You are not even losing 4% if you take out top two awards.

Quote: heatmap

Quote: ChumpChange

Idk how true this is for that game but a lot of the par sheets that I have show that the jackpot is actually apart of the total return. So based on what you say I don’t doubt the return is very low for just the base game.
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The return includes all the standard features based on optimal play, if relevant. Things like progressive awards are usually up to the casino, so they will be listed separately. If the jurisdiction requires 85% RTP, the games will be 85% before the amount of progressive is added.

Play for the jackpot, leave when you run out of quarters. I'm not talking about averages, I'm talking about the very short term of 250 to 1,000 spins.
As for VP, if I play 1,000 hands at $1.25/hand I'll have bet $1,250 and lost $100 at 10 cents a hand. If I reduced my bet to 25 cents/hand it'd be at $250 bet and lost $20 at 2 cents a hand; which is where I was going with this line of losses.

Quote: DRich

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DRich

Quote: TigerWu

I prefer to build my bankroll by Martingaling Triple 0 Roulette.
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As they have aways said the best way to win money gambling is to be the casino.
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If you have the edge over a casino game you are the casino
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Only if you have an edge over every game.
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Figuratively speaking, for that one game, you are the casino. The casino cannot beat you and all it takes is you beating one game to beat them.

Quote: itsmejeff

Quote: ChumpChange

I'm sure the Double Diamond machine where I played only paid 66.7% back to the player. Maybe it was set for 86.7%, but without hitting any kind of a jackpot, the real payback in the very short term was 2/3rds. And it wasn't just that machine, it was a whole lot of machines. Play 1,000 spins and see what you get back, you'll be in that 90% who lost club. But for a quarter a spin times 240 spins I was risking $60 and losing $20 which was about all the casino gave me to play with each day.

The probability of getting the top prize of 2500 on 3cm 3r1l Double Diamond is 8/72^3. 8/(72^3) * 2500/3 = 0.01786122542. If you never ever got the top prize playing forever games, your return would drop by slightly less than 2%. The probability of the second most highest payingest prize is 24/72^3 (or 28/72^3 at 80% or 36/72^3 at 75%). The cost of not getting the second highest prize ever in a purgatory of Double Diamond is a 2.058% ding to the return. You are not even losing 4% if you take out top two awards.

Quote: heatmap

Quote: ChumpChange

Idk how true this is for that game but a lot of the par sheets that I have show that the jackpot is actually apart of the total return. So based on what you say I don’t doubt the return is very low for just the base game.
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The return includes all the standard features based on optimal play, if relevant. Things like progressive awards are usually up to the casino, so they will be listed separately. If the jurisdiction requires 85% RTP, the games will be 85% before the amount of progressive is added.
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You like PAR sheets look at my posting history i have access to many... ballys (really old ones), IGT - unknown not named PAR sheets that only contain information (because every slot machine is just a skin to a par sheet), and AGS (have over 500 mostly variants of one slot for different markets)

Sheet from the Double Diamond machine. There's about a 1 in 250 chance of hitting a 60 coin payout. There's a 1 in 43K chance of winning the jackpot. It's like trying to win a Royal Flush. If I'm down near 240 coins at spin #220, you know I'm in need of winning the 240 coin payout to keep going on a $60 3 coin play budget, and the chance of hitting that is over 1 in 3,000. Pretty much 5 out 6 spins is a dead spin. Might as well play some table game like Let It Ride or something.

Now the guy who put this in his video said to play lower variance machines to build up a bankroll before playing the newer machines with higher variance that have video bonus rounds and 50 lines and different denoms and such. The cold streaks on the newer machines are much worse but they are rarely seen on YouTube because they are edited out. If you want to lose 100 to 300+ bets between the bonus rounds that may or may not pay off, you need some bankroll. Expecting a bonus round every 50-75 spins is not feasible. I keep seeing big money players constantly overbet on these machines then they have to whip out $1,000 voucher after $1,000 voucher to keep playing to even get to the bonus round, for normal people it'd be hundred dollar bill after hundred dollar bill.

That absolute lack of transparency is why I stick with video poker.

Quote: calwatch

That absolute lack of transparency is why I stick with video poker.
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The absolute lack of understanding of slot machines by slot directors and promo departments is why I switched from VP to slots for the majority of my coin in.

BTW, I had some huge free game hits this morning with many retriggers. One took 40 minutes to play all the free games in turbo mode, Another took 25 minutes. I am still working on the third set of free games. It has been 40 minutes already and I still have 200+ spins to go (and I hope to retrigger more). It is shaping up to be my second largest single win ever.

I was actually planning on making a thread on Cowboy Slots and GambleSmart's channels and things they've been saying recently. As their channels have gotten more popular they've been showing up in my feed more and I finally took a plunge into their content to see exactly what two slot techs(I believe GambleSmart has moved on to IT within the casino business but he's a former tech and still has home machines he works on) think about the state of the casino business right now. I think the OP severely misunderstanding both of their POVs on low vs high volatility machines. I don't think they're peddling higher vol machines as low vol machines, they're making an informed statement based on the par sheets they've had access to as techs. OP frankly if they're wrong, please give some better examples with PAR sheet info for lower vol games that are in "every" casino like the ones they do suggest.

I am going to reach out to them and see if they'll come here and defend themselves, as well as answer a few of my own questions because some of their advice seems counter to what other techs have said in the past. My impression is that both channels are focusing on newbie slot players not more advanced slot players.

For example, both of them say Regal Riches isn't really AP'able, when our very own forum goers and frankly IRL chinese/vietnamese AP teams do view that game as APable. Their argument is that "Yes you may be 1 color away from that must hit, but due to the volatility of that machine you may put in more than you get back when it finally pops." This is poor logic because we know all APable games aren't 'guaranteed' to pay out precisely when we want them to, but various mathematical laws make it so that machine is currently in a winnable state more than any other state of being. Same thing with counting cards as a professional BJ counter. You can have an amazingly high true count and still lose that session. It's "rare" but it may happen. Over time though you're gonna be a winner.

Another piece of advice I disagree with is that both of them say "Don't worry about RTP and payback settings on the machines, just play what you want in relation to your bankroll." This runs very counter to prevailing evidence from other techs over the years that if you have a choice of a 75% payback and 95% payback, you should always pick the 95% payback all things being equal. Much like any VP player knows you'd rather play the 99.55% 10/7 payback game over the 85% 8/5.

Another example I disagree with them, they say that film-tie in games don't necessarily have low RTPs, and aren't necessarily high volatility. We have had other techs post the PARs for newer games like the Walking Dead game a few years ago when it first came out and the casinos absolutely set the RTP super low, and the games themselves are often extremely unforgiving with bonuses and handpays. All things being equal playing that Marvel Superhero game or Willy Wonka will lead to a faster dead bankroll than playing the same line ugly 50+ year old slot game with no movie tie in.

Overall I think Cowboy and Gamble Smart are both really good guys that have different opinions than some other techs, and that's perfectly ok. I think they're mostly focused on really newbie slot players that don't jack about more advanced concepts within the slots industry.

Quote: ChumpChange

Now the guy who put this in his video said to play lower variance machines to build up a bankroll before playing the newer machines with higher variance that have video bonus rounds and 50 lines and different denoms and such.
The cold streaks on the newer machines are much worse but they are rarely seen on YouTube because they are edited out. If you want to lose 100 to 300+ bets between the bonus rounds that may or may not pay off, you need some bankroll.
Expecting a bonus round every 50-75 spins is not feasible. I keep seeing big money players constantly overbet on these machines then they have to whip out $1,000 voucher after $1,000 voucher to keep playing to even get to the bonus round, for normal people it'd be hundred dollar bill after hundred dollar bill.
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Yup on bonus rounds.
i've had machines go 400 spins before a bonus round.
at $10/spin, that's $4k. yes, lost $ on that play.. big time! :(
And yes i've had that happen multiple times on this type of slot.
A handful of times i only won 10-20x bet in the bonus when it finally hit. :(

Quote: ChumpChange

Sheet from the Double Diamond machine. There's about a 1 in 250 chance of hitting a 60 coin payout. There's a 1 in 43K chance of winning the jackpot. It's like trying to win a Royal Flush. If I'm down near 240 coins at spin #220, you know I'm in need of winning the 240 coin payout to keep going on a $60 3 coin play budget, and the chance of hitting that is over 1 in 3,000. Pretty much 5 out 6 spins is a dead spin. Might as well play some table game like Let It Ride or something.


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From the chart, there's a cliff after the 60x bet return? What's that about?

also, I think it was mickey Crimm that said if he had nothing good to use his freeplay on, he'll play double diamond.
i guess at those casinos, you can't use freeplay in video poker

Hey All:

Marc from Gamble Smart here.

I appreciate the discussion going on in this thread and also appreciate that it's remained civil.

I wanted to clarify a few things from my viewpoint and offer some explanations to what has been covered here. Double Diamond IS a low volatility game - the VI is quite low compared to most games on the casino floors today. Does that mean it's always a good machine to play? Maybe not, but compared to the choices that MOST gamblers pick, I would argue the answer is mostly yes. In my opinion, you are more likely to increase your bankroll in the short term off of a low volatility game over a high volatility game just due to variance.

As several stated in this thread, we are aiming towards educating the general gambler how all of this stuff works. Could we break it down even futher? Yes, but we chose not to do this as the public, in general, needs to understand the basics before they can understand the complex. If you feel the general public understands the basics of the pRNG vs. Virtual Reel Tables concept, then I invite you to take a look at the comments on the video that the screen-shots were referenced from in this thread. We have a LONG way to go.

Our goal is simple - provide the best and most accurate information possible to the general gambler so that if THEY decide to gamble, they can go in with a level head and toss all these crazy myths out the window. Some of which we feel could be very dangerous - chasing off of "pattern recognition", for example.

Is VP a better game? Absolutely. Are table games a better game? Absolutely. We can't contest that. But, I think we can all agree that the average gambler is drawn immediately to slots and we'd like to focus on that at this time, becasue tables games and VP does require a bit of effort on the player to strive for optimal play and let's face it, not everyone is cut out for that.

As for stating that RTP isn't a metric you should worry about. I know this brings a lot of contention out there. In my opinion, RTP is a long term play and this is how I generally like to phrase it in my message. If you gamble frequently, and have a plethora of casinos to chose from in your local vacinitiy, the RTP is a metric you should consider. However, I would argue that most gamblers don't fit into this category and they should NOT be concerning themselves with RTP. In the short term, a 200-1,000 pull session, I would argue that no human would be able to detect the payback % return to the player. Why do I say this? The variance within 1,000 spins or less is so severe that detection wouldn't be possible. Even at 10,000 spins I would say this is impossible. I'm not saying it's not important, I just feel strongly that the volatility of the game is much more noticable and impactful in the short term than RTP.

I love discussing this stuff - it's why I'm putting myself out there on YouTube. If you feel I am incorrect on any of this, then I respectfully want to hear your side of it.

In the end, I don't want to misguide or mislead anyone. Am I perfect, no, and will never claim to be. But, when you consider what all of these big name channels are pushing towards the average gambler (volume affects winnability, capped progressives are advantage plays, games pay differently based on past performance, play a game that hasn't given a bonus in awhile, etc.) then I think I'm doing something right.

Best to all,
Marc

Quote: GambleSmart

Hey All:

Marc from Gamble Smart here.
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Welcome to the forum!
Hope you stay a while.

just curious, What analytic lead you here?

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: GambleSmart

Hey All:

Marc from Gamble Smart here.
link to original post

Welcome to the forum!
Hope you stay a while.

just curious, What analytic lead you here?
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One of my YouTube members pointed it out. I’m very familiar with this site though, just never posted.

I’ve watched a few of cowboy slots videos and can confirm he comes off as an absolute imbecile. No one should take his advice regarding anything. Strong words, but I don’t like someone who clearly isn’t an expert acting like they’re one. Being a former slot attendant and or slot tech doesn’t make someone qualified to opine on anything other than resetting a machine, installing software, replacing tickets and paying jackpots. It surely doesn’t make them an expert on slot machine analytics.

Quote: McSweeney

I welcome people like him with a big platform spreading slot machine misinformation. The fewer people who ACTUALLY know how to play slots correctly, the better.
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Seriously, lol. All these “smarter gambler” channels are the same. “So whatcha wanna do is go all the way to the right and pick the highest bet” “If that doesn’t work just put on our patented xray glasses (from being a loyal patreon member) that can tell you the payback of the machine just by looking at it”

Bunch of sleezeballs creating gambling addicts.

Quote: Slotenthusiast

Quote: McSweeney

I welcome people like him with a big platform spreading slot machine misinformation. The fewer people who ACTUALLY know how to play slots correctly, the better.
link to original post

Seriously, lol. All these “smarter gambler” channels are the same. “So whatcha wanna do is go all the way to the right and pick the highest bet” “If that doesn’t work just put on our patented xray glasses (from being a loyal patreon member) that can tell you the payback of the machine just by looking at it”

Bunch of sleezeballs creating gambling addicts.
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No, we are not all the same. I would certainly not say anything like that on Gamble Smart. We are trying hard to educate the public on how all this stuff works. If anything we are trying to prevent gambling addiction. Especially compared to the hundreds of YT channels, some of them very large and influential, dumping dangerous information to the desperate gambler.

Please don’t try to lump us all into the same bucket.

Marc

Cowboy Slots has responded to OP and ChumpChange, his reply below.

"It's another great example of people outside of the industry not understanding. In that he claims the only way to build a bankroll Is by "playing games where you have an edge over the house". That isn't going to be true on any slot machine no matter what game you play. Slots always have the edge in the end. The irony in his post is the PAR sheet he showed actually proves our points correct (if you know how to read them). What he didn't do, is show other PAR sheets in comparison.

There's also people out there that believe pulling your card out resets the machine and believe they can fast stop a bonus intentionally. It's the internet, not everyone is going to agree. You be the judge in the end, however Marc and myself both have proved this and backed it up numerous times."


My own commentary: In regards to the second paragraph, I don't think anyone at this forum believes in either of those myths. That's purely good information for newbie slot players. I personally don't know how to read the PAR sheet, so I can't really comment on that. I do believe other reports from other techs that newer games and licensed games such as Willy Wonka are going to have a much higher hold/RTP, and that in general a smart gambler should stay FAR away from those games. I think we should care about RTP, in so far that much like my above example of playing 10/7 video poker vs playing 8/5. 98% of the time you'd want to play the 10/7.

BTW y'all did educate me on something I thought was illegal, which is the fact the manufacturers are allowed to "tease" you with the top slot symbol that's just barely off screen. I thought those reels were genuinely in those positions for those near miss hits, but y'all explained that nope that's just a blank dead spot and they're allowed to tease a jackpot. Many of the top youtube slot people genuinely don't understand that fact, including Mr Hand Pay, VegasMatt, etc. IMHO the law should be changed to not allow this. Reel symbols should always physically match what is hitting on that line spin.

I'm going to be building up my wealth playing video black jack. But I found out the day before yesterday that the VBJ machine took all my 4th session money in quite a hurry to make me short of the 1,000 points I needed to upgrade my Player's Card. So I went and played the roulette machine to get those 8 extra points, and got 1 point playing my $5 free play on 1 coin video poker. So now I can get 10% off that cheeseburger & fries with my new Player's Club upgraded card. But my tier points expire at the end of the month, but I get to keep my upgraded tier for another year. Not sure I should return this month unless I can get to 7,500 points by mid-next week. It's $4/point on this VBJ machine, and $8/point on the roulette machine and the VP machines. So I gambled $3,964 in 2 hours on VBJ the first time with my card, and I need to gamble $30,000 more next month to get to the next tier. They just expire the tier points on May 1st every year. The spendable points expire after 12 months of inactivity.
I figure the VBJ machine knew I was 30 bets ahead and wanted to reclaim them in no time flat after an abrupt cash out on my 3rd session.

ChallengedMilley asked me to weigh in. I don't really have anything of value to add beyond what knowledgeable members have already contributed here, and there's a lot of text here that I didn't scrutinize carefully, but FWIW:

(1) Lower-volatility slots don't help you "build a bankroll", because they're still -EV.

(2) I doubt there's any meaningful benefit my switching from high-volatility to low-volatility slots, for most slot players. I haven't run the numbers, but I'm guessing that the volatility essentially disappears over a weekend of play.

(3) RTP matters, even in the short term. Run some sims of thousands of short sessions for a low-RTP game and a high-RTP game, the results will be clear. It might not matter much for SUPER short sessions, but who is going to play only 50 spins their entire vacation?

(4) Arguing about what kind of slots are best to play strikes me as arguing about the best way to hit yourself in the head with a hammer. As my Average Loss Calculator shows, slots suck your money away way faster than any other game. It's the double-whammy of high house edge plus fast play speed (rounds per hour).

Quote: MichaelBluejay

ChallengedMilley asked me to weigh in. I don't really have anything of value to add beyond what knowledgeable members have already contributed here, and there's a lot of text here that I didn't scrutinize carefully, but FWIW:

(1) Lower-volatility slots don't help you "build a bankroll", because they're still -EV.

(2) I doubt there's any meaningful benefit my switching from high-volatility to low-volatility slots, for most slot players. I haven't run the numbers, but I'm guessing that the volatility essentially disappears over a weekend of play.

(3) RTP matters, even in the short term. Run some sims of thousands of short sessions for a low-RTP game and a high-RTP game, the results will be clear. It might not matter much for SUPER short sessions, but who is going to play only 50 spins their entire vacation?

(4) Arguing about what kind of slots are best to play strikes me as arguing about the best way to hit yourself in the head with a hammer. As my Average Loss Calculator shows, slots suck your money away way faster than any other game. It's the double-whammy of high house edge plus fast play speed (rounds per hour).
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Thanks Michael - Really appreciate the response.

1) I would argue that in the short-term, playing even a -EV game can be good IF you put start/stop points in place. This is what we try to get people to do more than anything. Commit to a certain number of spins, if you win, bank the win in either a lock box or safe in the room. The problem most slot players have is they don't know when to stop playing and they will run it down to 0 credits every time.

2) I would also argue that a higher volatility game would require more of a commitment in order to accomplish what I said in #1. You would generally need a larger bankroll to withstand the variance of a high volatility game. High volatility games, in my opinion, also strongly encourage the user to fall for the "chase". i.e. not willing to give up until a bonus or progressive is hit. This is why I try to stear people towards the lower volatility games - gives them more churn and they can have fun on a lower bankroll and less risk.

3) I've done several experiments where I've set machines to 85%, then set to 97%. Through a series of 500 spins, the 85% machine paid back 115% and the 97% paid back 88%. This is obviously the variance in the game. Lower volatility, the smaller the variance range, higher volatility, the larger the variance range. I'm not saying RTP is NOT important, I just feel it's not important in the short term, which most of our viewers fall into. They get so hooked up and fixated on RTP that they honestly believe it's worth PUSHING their denomination higher than they are comfortable betting BECAUSE they have heard payback % are higher the higher the denom (true in most cases). However, in such a short sample size, I would argue they would not see any benefit to making this decision unless they had the bankroll to back it up.

4) Slots are most definately a losing proposition - I certainly can't argue that. Like I said earlier, though, most gamblers are drawn to those games and aren't ready (or not able) to step into games that require strategy to fulfill the potential RTP. (BJ, VP, etc.).

I've been meaning to sit down and code a Double Diamond Deluxe simulation (based on the PAR I have) and see how many spins (on average) it would take before RTP WOULD be noticable. I think this would be an interesting number to produce.

Thoughts?
Marc

I have thoughts on beating these newer machines but it requires getting lucky and hitting 2 or 3 bonus rounds in quick succession, and it does happen, people do backup spins for this reason after a jackpot. I'd just be sure to bump up the bet a bit after winning 2 Mini JP's worth. The dearth of bonus rounds would make me lower my bet back down, so whether I get ahead is more based on the frequency of the bonus rounds and my raised bets to them. But I'd be starting from the bottom with maybe $150 session money on 25 lines at 1 cent with a 2X multiplier. If I get to 2 Mini JP's ahead, I'll raise my multiplier to 3.
I've got a short list of machines to try out. But they'd be along the lines of Panda Magic/Dragon Link and Happy & Prosperous and Autumn Moon/Dragon Link.

Quote: GambleSmart

I've been meaning to sit down and code a Double Diamond Deluxe simulation (based on the PAR I have) and see how many spins (on average) it would take before RTP WOULD be noticable. I think this would be an interesting number to produce.
link to original post

Is double diamond deluxe also a similarly low variance slot?

It's pretty much the same as Double Diamond - the only difference is they have nudges built into the PAR. Blanks that turn into symbol hit - it's literally the same as having the symbol hit without the nudge. Because of the nudge feature, though, they make those stops more frequent on the virtual reel tables.

Marc

Quote: GambleSmart

It's pretty much the same as Double Diamond - the only difference is they have nudges built into the PAR. Blanks that turn into symbol hit - it's literally the same as having the symbol hit without the nudge. Because of the nudge feature, though, they make those stops more frequent on the virtual reel tables.

Marc
link to original post

There's no reason to bet more than 1 coin?

Also, I tried it.
$100 @ $2/spin.
Had a couple cherries ($2), 1 mixed bars ($10), 1 double mixed bars ($20), 1 double single bar ($40)

100/174 is 43% return :(

Quote: GambleSmart

Quote: MichaelBluejay

ChallengedMilley asked me to weigh in. I don't really have anything of value to add beyond what knowledgeable members have already contributed here, and there's a lot of text here that I didn't scrutinize carefully, but FWIW:

(1) Lower-volatility slots don't help you "build a bankroll", because they're still -EV.

(2) I doubt there's any meaningful benefit my switching from high-volatility to low-volatility slots, for most slot players. I haven't run the numbers, but I'm guessing that the volatility essentially disappears over a weekend of play.

(3) RTP matters, even in the short term. Run some sims of thousands of short sessions for a low-RTP game and a high-RTP game, the results will be clear. It might not matter much for SUPER short sessions, but who is going to play only 50 spins their entire vacation?

(4) Arguing about what kind of slots are best to play strikes me as arguing about the best way to hit yourself in the head with a hammer. As my Average Loss Calculator shows, slots suck your money away way faster than any other game. It's the double-whammy of high house edge plus fast play speed (rounds per hour).
link to original post

Thanks Michael - Really appreciate the response.

1) I would argue that in the short-term, playing even a -EV game can be good IF you put start/stop points in place. This is what we try to get people to do more than anything. Commit to a certain number of spins, if you win, bank the win in either a lock box or safe in the room. The problem most slot players have is they don't know when to stop playing and they will run it down to 0 credits every time.

2) I would also argue that a higher volatility game would require more of a commitment in order to accomplish what I said in #1. You would generally need a larger bankroll to withstand the variance of a high volatility game. High volatility games, in my opinion, also strongly encourage the user to fall for the "chase". i.e. not willing to give up until a bonus or progressive is hit. This is why I try to stear people towards the lower volatility games - gives them more churn and they can have fun on a lower bankroll and less risk.

3) I've done several experiments where I've set machines to 85%, then set to 97%. Through a series of 500 spins, the 85% machine paid back 115% and the 97% paid back 88%. This is obviously the variance in the game. Lower volatility, the smaller the variance range, higher volatility, the larger the variance range. I'm not saying RTP is NOT important, I just feel it's not important in the short term, which most of our viewers fall into. They get so hooked up and fixated on RTP that they honestly believe it's worth PUSHING their denomination higher than they are comfortable betting BECAUSE they have heard payback % are higher the higher the denom (true in most cases). However, in such a short sample size, I would argue they would not see any benefit to making this decision unless they had the bankroll to back it up.

4) Slots are most definately a losing proposition - I certainly can't argue that. Like I said earlier, though, most gamblers are drawn to those games and aren't ready (or not able) to step into games that require strategy to fulfill the potential RTP. (BJ, VP, etc.).

I've been meaning to sit down and code a Double Diamond Deluxe simulation (based on the PAR I have) and see how many spins (on average) it would take before RTP WOULD be noticable. I think this would be an interesting number to produce.

Thoughts?
Marc
link to original post

I have read two of your long posts on WOV. I really feel you don't understand a single thing about gambling for entertainment or gambling for advantage. You really have no business advising newbie gamblers or aspiring AP gamblers. But, your business model relies on dispensing nonsense, so go for it.

Quote: Mental

Quote: GambleSmart

Quote: MichaelBluejay

ChallengedMilley asked me to weigh in. I don't really have anything of value to add beyond what knowledgeable members have already contributed here, and there's a lot of text here that I didn't scrutinize carefully, but FWIW:

(1) Lower-volatility slots don't help you "build a bankroll", because they're still -EV.

(2) I doubt there's any meaningful benefit my switching from high-volatility to low-volatility slots, for most slot players. I haven't run the numbers, but I'm guessing that the volatility essentially disappears over a weekend of play.

(3) RTP matters, even in the short term. Run some sims of thousands of short sessions for a low-RTP game and a high-RTP game, the results will be clear. It might not matter much for SUPER short sessions, but who is going to play only 50 spins their entire vacation?

(4) Arguing about what kind of slots are best to play strikes me as arguing about the best way to hit yourself in the head with a hammer. As my Average Loss Calculator shows, slots suck your money away way faster than any other game. It's the double-whammy of high house edge plus fast play speed (rounds per hour).
link to original post

Thanks Michael - Really appreciate the response.

1) I would argue that in the short-term, playing even a -EV game can be good IF you put start/stop points in place. This is what we try to get people to do more than anything. Commit to a certain number of spins, if you win, bank the win in either a lock box or safe in the room. The problem most slot players have is they don't know when to stop playing and they will run it down to 0 credits every time.

2) I would also argue that a higher volatility game would require more of a commitment in order to accomplish what I said in #1. You would generally need a larger bankroll to withstand the variance of a high volatility game. High volatility games, in my opinion, also strongly encourage the user to fall for the "chase". i.e. not willing to give up until a bonus or progressive is hit. This is why I try to stear people towards the lower volatility games - gives them more churn and they can have fun on a lower bankroll and less risk.

3) I've done several experiments where I've set machines to 85%, then set to 97%. Through a series of 500 spins, the 85% machine paid back 115% and the 97% paid back 88%. This is obviously the variance in the game. Lower volatility, the smaller the variance range, higher volatility, the larger the variance range. I'm not saying RTP is NOT important, I just feel it's not important in the short term, which most of our viewers fall into. They get so hooked up and fixated on RTP that they honestly believe it's worth PUSHING their denomination higher than they are comfortable betting BECAUSE they have heard payback % are higher the higher the denom (true in most cases). However, in such a short sample size, I would argue they would not see any benefit to making this decision unless they had the bankroll to back it up.

4) Slots are most definately a losing proposition - I certainly can't argue that. Like I said earlier, though, most gamblers are drawn to those games and aren't ready (or not able) to step into games that require strategy to fulfill the potential RTP. (BJ, VP, etc.).

I've been meaning to sit down and code a Double Diamond Deluxe simulation (based on the PAR I have) and see how many spins (on average) it would take before RTP WOULD be noticable. I think this would be an interesting number to produce.

Thoughts?
Marc
link to original post

I have read two of your long posts on WOV. I really feel you don't understand a single thing about gambling for entertainment or gambling for advantage. You really have no business advising newbie gamblers or aspiring AP gamblers. But, your business model relies on dispensing nonsense, so go for it.
link to original post

Instead of attacking me, perhaps you could enlighten me on where I am wrong?

Mental seems to be claiming that he pushes dem buttons every day, so if anyone here would know how they work, he would. I would hope anyway.

“Instead of attacking me, perhaps you could enlighten me on where I am wrong?”

If you’re the expert you shouldn’t need to be educated on the topic.

"Backup spins" are actually the worst play you can possibly make because the progressive jackpot you just won is at the lowest point it can possibly be.

Quote: Slotenthusiast

“Instead of attacking me, perhaps you could enlighten me on where I am wrong?”

If you’re the expert you shouldn’t need to be educated on the topic.
link to original post

I’m sorry; where did a say I was an expert? I was hoping we could have a discussion here, but I see where this is going. I was hopeful this would be a good forum for discussion, but it’s not.

Take care
Marc

Quote: McSweeney

"Backup spins" are actually the worst play you can possibly make because the progressive jackpot you just won is at the lowest point it can possibly be.
link to original post

The Mini and the Minor JP's aren't progressive and if I win a Minor, I might bump up my multiplier by 2 or 3, or keep it the same and bump up the denom by 1 which doubles both JPs. Minors are typically 5X the Mini.

The Big Jackpot's latest video on the million dollar jackpot Autumn Moon. It was his worst session ever on this machine. I would have started with $15,000 and been at the $1 denom with a 2X multiplier, but with a machine this cold it just doesn't matter. Inside of 20 minutes he was down 200 bets. I'd have to count the spins, might be around 250 spins. He might have had a RTP of 20% or less if anyone wants to figure it out. He did have one bonus round and it paid 2X his bet.
There's a couple audio mutes that run for a few minutes on this video. I suppose the machine next to him was making too much noise for the second silence.

Quote: McSweeney

"Backup spins" are actually the worst play you can possibly make because the progressive jackpot you just won is at the lowest point it can possibly be.
link to original post

By the numbers, yes.

Any value in a "backup spin" is emotional. How do you know it wasn't going to pay out back to back? Well, you tried, you lost the price of one spin, and sensibly moved along. There is no voodoo reason to kick yourself when you see the next person sit at the machine and win.

If you don't get emotionally involved, backup spins make no sense.
If you're a non-AP, and the "backup spin" buys you a little sanity and emotional separation, it might be worth it to lose $4 instead of throwing in another $300 before giving up.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: McSweeney

"Backup spins" are actually the worst play you can possibly make because the progressive jackpot you just won is at the lowest point it can possibly be.
link to original post

By the numbers, yes.

Any value in a "backup spin" is emotional. How do you know it wasn't going to pay out back to back? Well, you tried, you lost the price of one spin, and sensibly moved along. There is no voodoo reason to kick yourself when you see the next person sit at the machine and win.

If you don't get emotionally involved, backup spins make no sense.
If you're a non-AP, and the "backup spin" buys you a little sanity and emotional separation, it might be worth it to lose $4 instead of throwing in another $300 before giving up.
link to original post

Someone at my local casino swears by backup spins on must hits.
After someone gets the Minor, he goes in and spins a handful at 3 lines at 1x bet.
After years of doing this, he actually hit a $9.3k Major.
So he's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay up

Quote: GambleSmart

Quote: Slotenthusiast

“Instead of attacking me, perhaps you could enlighten me on where I am wrong?”

If you’re the expert you shouldn’t need to be educated on the topic.
link to original post

I’m sorry; where did a say I was an expert? I was hoping we could have a discussion here, but I see where this is going. I was hopeful this would be a good forum for discussion, but it’s not.

Take care
Marc
link to original post

I'm sorry.
I have no idea why some forum members are treating you as hostile.

Quote: Mental

Quote: GambleSmart

Quote: MichaelBluejay

ChallengedMilley asked me to weigh in. I don't really have anything of value to add beyond what knowledgeable members have already contributed here, and there's a lot of text here that I didn't scrutinize carefully, but FWIW:

(1) Lower-volatility slots don't help you "build a bankroll", because they're still -EV.

(2) I doubt there's any meaningful benefit my switching from high-volatility to low-volatility slots, for most slot players. I haven't run the numbers, but I'm guessing that the volatility essentially disappears over a weekend of play.

(3) RTP matters, even in the short term. Run some sims of thousands of short sessions for a low-RTP game and a high-RTP game, the results will be clear. It might not matter much for SUPER short sessions, but who is going to play only 50 spins their entire vacation?

(4) Arguing about what kind of slots are best to play strikes me as arguing about the best way to hit yourself in the head with a hammer. As my Average Loss Calculator shows, slots suck your money away way faster than any other game. It's the double-whammy of high house edge plus fast play speed (rounds per hour).
link to original post

Thanks Michael - Really appreciate the response.

1) I would argue that in the short-term, playing even a -EV game can be good IF you put start/stop points in place. This is what we try to get people to do more than anything. Commit to a certain number of spins, if you win, bank the win in either a lock box or safe in the room. The problem most slot players have is they don't know when to stop playing and they will run it down to 0 credits every time.

2) I would also argue that a higher volatility game would require more of a commitment in order to accomplish what I said in #1. You would generally need a larger bankroll to withstand the variance of a high volatility game. High volatility games, in my opinion, also strongly encourage the user to fall for the "chase". i.e. not willing to give up until a bonus or progressive is hit. This is why I try to stear people towards the lower volatility games - gives them more churn and they can have fun on a lower bankroll and less risk.

3) I've done several experiments where I've set machines to 85%, then set to 97%. Through a series of 500 spins, the 85% machine paid back 115% and the 97% paid back 88%. This is obviously the variance in the game. Lower volatility, the smaller the variance range, higher volatility, the larger the variance range. I'm not saying RTP is NOT important, I just feel it's not important in the short term, which most of our viewers fall into. They get so hooked up and fixated on RTP that they honestly believe it's worth PUSHING their denomination higher than they are comfortable betting BECAUSE they have heard payback % are higher the higher the denom (true in most cases). However, in such a short sample size, I would argue they would not see any benefit to making this decision unless they had the bankroll to back it up.

4) Slots are most definately a losing proposition - I certainly can't argue that. Like I said earlier, though, most gamblers are drawn to those games and aren't ready (or not able) to step into games that require strategy to fulfill the potential RTP. (BJ, VP, etc.).

I've been meaning to sit down and code a Double Diamond Deluxe simulation (based on the PAR I have) and see how many spins (on average) it would take before RTP WOULD be noticable. I think this would be an interesting number to produce.

Thoughts?
Marc
link to original post

I have read two of your long posts on WOV. I really feel you don't understand a single thing about gambling for entertainment or gambling for advantage. You really have no business advising newbie gamblers or aspiring AP gamblers. But, your business model relies on dispensing nonsense, so go for it.
link to original post

I assumed he was writing about gambling for entertainment. Did I miss where suggested someone could supplement their income with low volatility slots?

Anyhow... I tend to agree with him. I imagine most inexperienced slot players have a desire to entertain themselves for an amount of time, not necessarily with a win/loss goal in mind. Low volatility slots tend to do this better than higher volatility games.

Quote: RuddyDuck

Quote: Mental

Quote: GambleSmart

Quote: MichaelBluejay

ChallengedMilley asked me to weigh in. I don't really have anything of value to add beyond what knowledgeable members have already contributed here, and there's a lot of text here that I didn't scrutinize carefully, but FWIW:

(1) Lower-volatility slots don't help you "build a bankroll", because they're still -EV.

(2) I doubt there's any meaningful benefit my switching from high-volatility to low-volatility slots, for most slot players. I haven't run the numbers, but I'm guessing that the volatility essentially disappears over a weekend of play.

(3) RTP matters, even in the short term. Run some sims of thousands of short sessions for a low-RTP game and a high-RTP game, the results will be clear. It might not matter much for SUPER short sessions, but who is going to play only 50 spins their entire vacation?

(4) Arguing about what kind of slots are best to play strikes me as arguing about the best way to hit yourself in the head with a hammer. As my Average Loss Calculator shows, slots suck your money away way faster than any other game. It's the double-whammy of high house edge plus fast play speed (rounds per hour).
link to original post

Thanks Michael - Really appreciate the response.

1) I would argue that in the short-term, playing even a -EV game can be good IF you put start/stop points in place. This is what we try to get people to do more than anything. Commit to a certain number of spins, if you win, bank the win in either a lock box or safe in the room. The problem most slot players have is they don't know when to stop playing and they will run it down to 0 credits every time.

2) I would also argue that a higher volatility game would require more of a commitment in order to accomplish what I said in #1. You would generally need a larger bankroll to withstand the variance of a high volatility game. High volatility games, in my opinion, also strongly encourage the user to fall for the "chase". i.e. not willing to give up until a bonus or progressive is hit. This is why I try to stear people towards the lower volatility games - gives them more churn and they can have fun on a lower bankroll and less risk.

3) I've done several experiments where I've set machines to 85%, then set to 97%. Through a series of 500 spins, the 85% machine paid back 115% and the 97% paid back 88%. This is obviously the variance in the game. Lower volatility, the smaller the variance range, higher volatility, the larger the variance range. I'm not saying RTP is NOT important, I just feel it's not important in the short term, which most of our viewers fall into. They get so hooked up and fixated on RTP that they honestly believe it's worth PUSHING their denomination higher than they are comfortable betting BECAUSE they have heard payback % are higher the higher the denom (true in most cases). However, in such a short sample size, I would argue they would not see any benefit to making this decision unless they had the bankroll to back it up.

4) Slots are most definately a losing proposition - I certainly can't argue that. Like I said earlier, though, most gamblers are drawn to those games and aren't ready (or not able) to step into games that require strategy to fulfill the potential RTP. (BJ, VP, etc.).

I've been meaning to sit down and code a Double Diamond Deluxe simulation (based on the PAR I have) and see how many spins (on average) it would take before RTP WOULD be noticable. I think this would be an interesting number to produce.

Thoughts?
Marc
link to original post

I have read two of your long posts on WOV. I really feel you don't understand a single thing about gambling for entertainment or gambling for advantage. You really have no business advising newbie gamblers or aspiring AP gamblers. But, your business model relies on dispensing nonsense, so go for it.
link to original post

I assumed he was writing about gambling for entertainment. Did I miss where suggested someone could supplement their income with low volatility slots?

Anyhow... I tend to agree with him. I imagine most inexperienced slot players have a desire to entertain themselves for an amount of time, not necessarily with a win/loss goal in mind. Low volatility slots tend to do this better than higher volatility games.
link to original post

The dude literally has a channel called “gamblesmart” which in my limited viewing suggests to viewers how to get the best odds and how to play slot machines to maximize returns and limit losses. He then goes onto say people are being hostile for saying he claims to be an expert on gambling.

If he isn’t an expert on gambling why does he have a channel showing people how to gamble on slots?

Quote: slotenthusiast

If he isn’t an expert on gambling why does he have a channel showing people how to gamble on slots?

Probably because he’s humble, which is a trait that’s generally seen as positive. Many people, including the media, have called me an expert on certain topics, but that’s not how I describe myself. I describe myself as “knowledgeable”. I imagine that’s how GambleSmart would describe himself. Your attack on him is petty. It’s sad when someone with almost no history on this forum scares off other new members.

BTW, don’t quote pages and pages of irrelevant text, forcing everyone to scroll through it. Quote only the shorter, relevant bit.

Quote: Slotenthusiast

The dude literally has a channel called “gamblesmart” which in my limited viewing suggests to viewers how to get the best odds and how to play slot machines to maximize returns and limit losses. He then goes onto say people are being hostile for saying he claims to be an expert on gambling.

If he isn’t an expert on gambling why does he have a channel showing people how to gamble on slots?
link to original post

I have only read what he posted in this thread. I have not watched any of his content. Is there something specific you disagree with him about?

They have a timed money cash box. You can put a wad of cash in it, set a timer on it and not get your cash back out until the timer expires. It's meant to lock up your winnings so you don't gamble it. I've never really had winnings that amounted to lockbox level, But if I was driving home for a couple hours and had a lot, it might be useful to put the gambling money in it and lock it up until I get home so the police don't steal it during a traffic stop. Or even lock up my buy-ins on the drive to the casino. But this is a small little container. I don't expect it would handle much more than 50 to 100 bills.

Here's Marc


They are also selling a Max Bet Button Blocker so you don't wipe out your credit meter with an errant lean.
https://www.gamblesmart.net/category/miscellaneous-items

Looks like this lock box I found on Amazon is very similar to what GambleSmart is selling but it appears to be too small for the 50 dollar wad I just measured. It seems to be made for 20 85 mm cigarettes of the King size. Maybe GambleSmart has one specially made for money instead of cigarettes but I can't tell the difference between them except the logo.
Habit Control case with a Timer Tock Portable timed Dispenser time Lock case 85mm /3.3in King Size 20 Capacity（Silver） https://tinyurl.com/27lpp96b

Today's video is about Dragon Link & Lightning Link and maybe some Buffalo Link.
Marc has some thoughts on the reels used during the spin & hold rounds. He also goes on about the last chance spin for less.

If you don't want to cash a TITO lower than your minimum bet, always use the last chance bet, or add more money to the machine.