Manually calculating progressive jackpot odds on multi-line slot machines
February 9th, 2022 at 11:50:04 PM
permalink
I don't know if anyone wants to share this knowledge publicly, if at all, but DM's are welcome if you're more comfortable with that.
I have noticed in a few GWAE podcasts, guest Slot AP's have either been distracted or seemingly deliberately worded their methods in a special way to confuse the listener. I am referring specifically to the 2013 episode with Slot Kingz and the 2019 episode with Prozema. Both guests attempt to describe to Bob and Richard their method of manually estimating the progressive jackpot odds of an uncapped progressive through observation. The steps I can make out are: 1) Estimate the base game payback (which I am comfortable with) and 2) Observe the frequency of the jackpot symbol appearing on each reel (for 200 spins, for example) and multiply them together.
My question relates to Step 2), when noting the frequency on a multi-line game where the jackpot has to line up on a pay line to be won, what is the correct approach?
1) Would it be to observe the frequency of the jackpot symbol appearing on the middle line only and then dividing the odds by the number of pay lines, e.g. 40,000 to 1 frequency observed for the jackpot lining up on a single line (i.e. the middle line) and therefore a 1600 to 1 chance of it lining up on ANY of the game's 25 pay lines?
OR
2) Noting how frequently the jackpot symbol appears in ANY position on each of the reels, then multiplying it by the total number of pay lines? E.g. 5 jackpot symbols could show up in no specific order on each of the 5 reels 1 in 2000 spins, but if you need to line them up on one of the 25 pay lines for example, would you multiply 2000 by 25 to get the probability of it occurring on one of the 25 lines? *Note I just realize this doesn't make sense as the probability of it occurring on only 1 active pay line would not be be the same odds as it occurring anywhere on the screen (e.g. 2000 x 1..).
Basically what is the best way to do this for multi-line games where you have to line up the jackpot on a pay line to win it?
And is it safe to assume each pay line is independent, and therefore has an equal chance of landing the jackpot, when the structure of 3 x 5 matrix means each pay line is not inherently independent?
I have noticed in a few GWAE podcasts, guest Slot AP's have either been distracted or seemingly deliberately worded their methods in a special way to confuse the listener. I am referring specifically to the 2013 episode with Slot Kingz and the 2019 episode with Prozema. Both guests attempt to describe to Bob and Richard their method of manually estimating the progressive jackpot odds of an uncapped progressive through observation. The steps I can make out are: 1) Estimate the base game payback (which I am comfortable with) and 2) Observe the frequency of the jackpot symbol appearing on each reel (for 200 spins, for example) and multiply them together.
My question relates to Step 2), when noting the frequency on a multi-line game where the jackpot has to line up on a pay line to be won, what is the correct approach?
1) Would it be to observe the frequency of the jackpot symbol appearing on the middle line only and then dividing the odds by the number of pay lines, e.g. 40,000 to 1 frequency observed for the jackpot lining up on a single line (i.e. the middle line) and therefore a 1600 to 1 chance of it lining up on ANY of the game's 25 pay lines?
OR
2) Noting how frequently the jackpot symbol appears in ANY position on each of the reels, then multiplying it by the total number of pay lines? E.g. 5 jackpot symbols could show up in no specific order on each of the 5 reels 1 in 2000 spins, but if you need to line them up on one of the 25 pay lines for example, would you multiply 2000 by 25 to get the probability of it occurring on one of the 25 lines? *Note I just realize this doesn't make sense as the probability of it occurring on only 1 active pay line would not be be the same odds as it occurring anywhere on the screen (e.g. 2000 x 1..).
Basically what is the best way to do this for multi-line games where you have to line up the jackpot on a pay line to win it?
And is it safe to assume each pay line is independent, and therefore has an equal chance of landing the jackpot, when the structure of 3 x 5 matrix means each pay line is not inherently independent?
Last edited by: Roberto21 on Feb 10, 2022
