AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 151
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September 11th, 2021 at 3:57:56 PM permalink
Quote: kalc

I have been gathering data for a few days, and I have identified some spots that are potentially +EV.

It turns out that there are a couple of games that have actual "must-hit-by" jackpots, and the amounts are published on the game screen. One game has a minor jackpot that goes from $50-100, but it almost always hits at exactly $100.00. When the meter approaches $100, the movement does not significantly speed up compared to when it is at $50, which suggests that there may not be many other players targeting this jackpot.

Is there any way to determine if the meter is driven by wins or coin-in? The one clue that I have is that the major and minor jackpots do not increase at the same rate. Sometimes, the major increases by more than the minor, and vice versa.

If the meter is driven by coin-in, then I can play one max bet when the meter is at $99.99. But if it is win based, then is it better to make several smaller bets in succession?

  • link to original post

    As a side note: If they are not must-hit-by" jackpots then the proper term is mystery jackpots.

    How often do the $100 must hit bys get up to 99.99? Multiple times a day? I have been waiting for must hits to become common online, anytime I visit an online casino I look. They are just not as common as I had hoped.
    Last edited by: AxelWolf on Sep 11, 2021
    ♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
    kalc
    kalc
    Joined: Sep 7, 2021
    • Threads: 1
    • Posts: 16
    September 11th, 2021 at 4:45:54 PM permalink
    Quote: AxelWolf

    As a side note: If they are not must-hit-by" jackpots then the proper term is mystery jackpots.

    How often do the $100 must hit bys get up to 99.99? Multiple times a day? I have been waiting for must hits to become common online, anytime I visit an online casino I look. They are just not as common as I had hoped.

  • link to original post



    Thanks for the tip on the proper terminology. I have heard "must-hit-by" jackpots referred to as "mystery" jackpots as well, so I wasn't sure what exactly to call them.

    Yes, multiple times a day. On average, the jackpot is hit about 10 times a day, and reaches the maximum around 2/3 of the time.
    AxelWolf
    AxelWolf
    Joined: Oct 10, 2012
    • Threads: 151
    • Posts: 19815
    September 11th, 2021 at 8:07:56 PM permalink
    Quote: kalc

    Quote: AxelWolf

    As a side note: If they are not must-hit-by" jackpots then the proper term is mystery jackpots.

    How often do the $100 must hit bys get up to 99.99? Multiple times a day? I have been waiting for must hits to become common online, anytime I visit an online casino I look. They are just not as common as I had hoped.

  • link to original post



    Thanks for the tip on the proper terminology. I have heard "must-hit-by" jackpots referred to as "mystery" jackpots as well, so I wasn't sure what exactly to call them.

    Yes, multiple times a day. On average, the jackpot is hit about 10 times a day, and reaches the maximum around 2/3 of the time.
  • link to original post

    Have you ever thought about emailing them and asking what percentage of your coin in is contributed to the progressive? It can't hurt to ask. Perhaps even from an anonymous email as someone potentially interested in using their platform.
    ♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
    SOOPOO
    SOOPOO
    Joined: Aug 8, 2010
    • Threads: 112
    • Posts: 8105
    September 12th, 2021 at 4:22:40 AM permalink
    Quote: kalc

    Quote: AxelWolf

    As a side note: If they are not must-hit-by" jackpots then the proper term is mystery jackpots.

    How often do the $100 must hit bys get up to 99.99? Multiple times a day? I have been waiting for must hits to become common online, anytime I visit an online casino I look. They are just not as common as I had hoped.

  • link to original post



    Thanks for the tip on the proper terminology. I have heard "must-hit-by" jackpots referred to as "mystery" jackpots as well, so I wasn't sure what exactly to call them.

    Yes, multiple times a day. On average, the jackpot is hit about 10 times a day, and reaches the maximum around 2/3 of the time.
  • link to original post



    Im the online casino skeptic here. How do you know they are ACTUALLY hit multiple times a day versus the casino just lowering the jackpot back to starting value because it CONVINCES you that it is hit multiple times a day?

    If I had a not insignificant amount of free play but not enough that I should worry a lot about (1k per year as you said), Id play any nearly 50-50 game, take my around $980 and buy my wife 1/2 a purse or so
    AxelWolf
    AxelWolf
    Joined: Oct 10, 2012
    • Threads: 151
    • Posts: 19815
    September 12th, 2021 at 5:16:53 AM permalink
    Quote: SOOPOO

    Quote: kalc

    Quote: AxelWolf

    As a side note: If they are not must-hit-by" jackpots then the proper term is mystery jackpots.

    How often do the $100 must hit bys get up to 99.99? Multiple times a day? I have been waiting for must hits to become common online, anytime I visit an online casino I look. They are just not as common as I had hoped.

  • link to original post



    Thanks for the tip on the proper terminology. I have heard "must-hit-by" jackpots referred to as "mystery" jackpots as well, so I wasn't sure what exactly to call them.

    Yes, multiple times a day. On average, the jackpot is hit about 10 times a day, and reaches the maximum around 2/3 of the time.
  • link to original post



    Im the online casino skeptic here. How do you know they are ACTUALLY hit multiple times a day versus the casino just lowering the jackpot back to starting value because it CONVINCES you that it is hit multiple times a day?

    If I had a not insignificant amount of free play but not enough that I should worry a lot about (1k per year as you said), Id play any nearly 50-50 game, take my around $980 and buy my wife 1/2 a purse or so
  • link to original post

    Unfortunately, I don't think this casino is open to the US., so I didn't really take the time to investigate their reputation.

    I see some potential here above and beyond the free play he is using.
    ♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
    kalc
    kalc
    Joined: Sep 7, 2021
    • Threads: 1
    • Posts: 16
    September 12th, 2021 at 10:19:07 AM permalink
    Quote: SOOPOO



    Im the online casino skeptic here. How do you know they are ACTUALLY hit multiple times a day versus the casino just lowering the jackpot back to starting value because it CONVINCES you that it is hit multiple times a day?

    If I had a not insignificant amount of free play but not enough that I should worry a lot about (1k per year as you said), Id play any nearly 50-50 game, take my around $980 and buy my wife 1/2 a purse or so

  • link to original post



    I never said that I knew anything for sure. That's why I am only thinking in terms of EV, and why I would never sink my own money into any casino game, let alone an online casino. That said, based on my personal experiences on this platform, and those of others on forums, the likelihood that the casino actually pays out is at least 95%. I have never deposited money into their platform, but have cashed out in the five figures (playing poker only). There are many others who have cashed out for five or six figures. Could they be shills? Sure, but the likelihood of that many long time forum members all being shills is incredibly low.

    Quote: AxelWolf

    [Have you ever thought about emailing them and asking what percentage of your coin in is contributed to the progressive? It can't hurt to ask. Perhaps even from an anonymous email as someone potentially interested in using their platform.

  • link to original post



    That's a good idea. Their CS is usually pretty cagey, and I have not had much luck getting information from them in the past, but like you said, it can't hurt to ask.

    Quote: AxelWolf

    Unfortunately, I don't think this casino is open to the US., so I didn't really take the time to investigate their reputation.

    I see some potential here above and beyond the free play he is using.

  • link to original post



    This casino is available in the US.
    AxelWolf
    AxelWolf
    Joined: Oct 10, 2012
    • Threads: 151
    • Posts: 19815
    September 15th, 2021 at 5:38:36 AM permalink
    Quote: kalc

    Quote: SOOPOO



    Im the online casino skeptic here. How do you know they are ACTUALLY hit multiple times a day versus the casino just lowering the jackpot back to starting value because it CONVINCES you that it is hit multiple times a day?

    If I had a not insignificant amount of free play but not enough that I should worry a lot about (1k per year as you said), Id play any nearly 50-50 game, take my around $980 and buy my wife 1/2 a purse or so

  • link to original post



    I never said that I knew anything for sure. That's why I am only thinking in terms of EV, and why I would never sink my own money into any casino game, let alone an online casino. That said, based on my personal experiences on this platform, and those of others on forums, the likelihood that the casino actually pays out is at least 95%. I have never deposited money into their platform, but have cashed out in the five figures (playing poker only). There are many others who have cashed out for five or six figures. Could they be shills? Sure, but the likelihood of that many long time forum members all being shills is incredibly low.

    Quote: AxelWolf

    [Have you ever thought about emailing them and asking what percentage of your coin in is contributed to the progressive? It can't hurt to ask. Perhaps even from an anonymous email as someone potentially interested in using their platform.

  • link to original post



    That's a good idea. Their CS is usually pretty cagey, and I have not had much luck getting information from them in the past, but like you said, it can't hurt to ask.

    Quote: AxelWolf

    Unfortunately, I don't think this casino is open to the US., so I didn't really take the time to investigate their reputation.

    I see some potential here above and beyond the free play he is using.

  • link to original post



    This casino is available in the US.
  • link to original post

    I'm not sure why I thought it wasn't, perhaps i got it confused with a different casino/poster.
    ♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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