kalc
kalc
Joined: Sep 7, 2021
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September 7th, 2021 at 6:23:24 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

That sounds like a pretty good script! It monitors the site at all times? I'd look through and make sure that doesn't violate any Terms and Conditions if there's a way for them to notice that you are using it...but I'm not going to pretend to understand any tech stuff, because I don't.

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    There's nothing within the Terms and Conditions that specifically say that I can't use automated methods to monitor the size of the jackpots, although the T&C is so broad that they can issue a ban for whatever reason they deem fit. On a practical matter though, what I am doing would be nearly impossible to detect because I am just accessing an API that the software is accessing already. When logged in, the software calls an API every 3 seconds, which returns the current information on each jackpot. I wrote my script to call it every 2 minutes. The API is publicly accessible and is being called by each player's client 20 times a minute, so my extra calls would never be noticed, and could not be traced back to me even if they were.

    After my script gets the data, it logs the size and timestamp for each jackpot. Over time, this data will give me the ability to graph the range of the jackpots, the sizes they were when they were hit, as well as how fast they increase at different jackpot amounts. My initial thought was that, once several hundred jackpot hits are logged, I will have a good idea of what a "good" jackpot amount is, and only play after the prize reaches that threshold. But I am noticing that, once a jackpot reaches a certain amount, it starts increasing at 3-4x faster than it does at the minimum jackpot. How does the math work when the game has significantly more volume than usual? Does the extra volume from other players reduce my odds of hitting, or is it the same regardless?
    AxelWolf
    AxelWolf
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    September 7th, 2021 at 11:57:30 PM permalink
    What software providers are they using?
    ♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
    Mission146
    Mission146
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    Dieter
    September 8th, 2021 at 7:01:31 AM permalink
    Quote: kalc



    There's nothing within the Terms and Conditions that specifically say that I can't use automated methods to monitor the size of the jackpots, although the T&C is so broad that they can issue a ban for whatever reason they deem fit. On a practical matter though, what I am doing would be nearly impossible to detect because I am just accessing an API that the software is accessing already. When logged in, the software calls an API every 3 seconds, which returns the current information on each jackpot. I wrote my script to call it every 2 minutes. The API is publicly accessible and is being called by each player's client 20 times a minute, so my extra calls would never be noticed, and could not be traced back to me even if they were.

    After my script gets the data, it logs the size and timestamp for each jackpot. Over time, this data will give me the ability to graph the range of the jackpots, the sizes they were when they were hit, as well as how fast they increase at different jackpot amounts. My initial thought was that, once several hundred jackpot hits are logged, I will have a good idea of what a "good" jackpot amount is, and only play after the prize reaches that threshold. But I am noticing that, once a jackpot reaches a certain amount, it starts increasing at 3-4x faster than it does at the minimum jackpot. How does the math work when the game has significantly more volume than usual? Does the extra volume from other players reduce my odds of hitting, or is it the same regardless?

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    Granted, a positive EV play is a positive EV play, but that's the point that I was making about having competition for any given jackpot...especially if you're only doing this on a $1,000 coin-in per year basis. The drop on the base game is likely huge (by online standards), so you'll probably get smacked around if you're not hitting the jackpot, but maybe not, if you hit Free Games or something. In a sample of $1,000 coin-in, anything can happen, really.

    The jackpot probably starts increasing at such a rate because other players are likely doing the same thing you are, whether that be having some sort of (very impressive sounding!) program do it, or monitoring it manually. Additionally, the people already playing it probably figure that the jackpot is triggered to hit at a certain point, so by increasing their bets, they are accountable for more meter movement in one spin, which they would perceive as giving them a better chance of hitting it. I'm using words like, "Figure," and, "Perceive," because all of this assumes the game actually works that way and that it's a fair game besides.

    So, likely more players and the people who were already playing are betting more. The long and short of it is that you are going to probably have competition on it.

    I considered targeting these for a licensed and regulated Pennsylvania online casino that has a must-hit game, so I basically just watched it in action for a while. I determined after some observing that, even if it did work that way AND I was betting significantly more than they were, that my expected hourly profits wouldn't justify the time I'd have to put into monitoring the jackpot, etc...

    In short, it's a fun idea, but you probably already have competition diluting whatever value it might have.
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    kalc
    kalc
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    September 8th, 2021 at 9:22:39 AM permalink
    Quote: AxelWolf

    What software providers are they using?

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    As far as I can tell, it seems to be bespoke software. Their corporate website claims that they are the creator of the games that they offer.

    Quote: Mission146



    Granted, a positive EV play is a positive EV play, but that's the point that I was making about having competition for any given pecially if you're only doing this on a $1,000 coin-in per year basis. The drop on the base game is likely huge (by online standards), so you'll probably get smacked around if you're not hitting the jackpot, but maybe not, if you hit Free Games or something. In a sample of $1,000 coin-in, anything can happen, really.

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    I completely understand the point that you are making, and it is a very valid point. I know that the odds to win a major jackpot playing $1,000 a year is at least 100:1, so I am not expecting to realize my EV. Winning a major jackpot would obviously be nice, but I'm not counting on that money to pay my bills. Therefore, it doesn't matter to me if I end up getting $0 from the bonus funds, as long as I am making +EV plays.

    With regards to the odds of hitting a jackpot when there is competition, I would have thought that the odds per coin stay the same regardless of how many other people are playing, since the jackpot is programmed to trigger when it reaches a certain random threshold with no known upper limit. If the threshold was known, then obviously, the odds per coin decrease when there is more volume, but this is not the case with online jackpots.

    Assuming that the distribution of jackpot wins is uniform, and the maximum size is unknown, doesn't playing $100 give me the same chance to hit a jackpot whether I am the only player, or if there are a million others? When there is more volume, the chance of the jackpot hitting for someone increases, but it would seem to me that my individual odds stay that same, because my $100 would move the meter the same amount regardless of what others are doing.
    Mission146
    Mission146
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    September 8th, 2021 at 10:07:29 AM permalink
    You're right. For some reason, I was thinking that you were referring to a, "Must-Hit," jackpot, which would have an upper bound.

    That said, I would assume that the game would have the probability of hitting the jackpot increase the more someone is betting, but maybe not.
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    kalc
    kalc
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    Mission146
    September 8th, 2021 at 11:00:29 AM permalink
    I referred to an unknown "must-hit-by" amount in my initial post, so I probably contributed to the confusion. There is almost certainly an upper bound, because the jackpots are awarded through the bonus feature, but it is not published so it is effectively unknown to most players. By gathering enough data, I can deduce what the upper bound is.

    Yes, the odds of hitting the jackpot is proportional with how much one is betting (or more accurately, how much one contributes to the meter movement), but as long as the jackpot trigger threshold is random and unknown, the odds of each individual spin hitting the jackpot is not significantly affected by the volume of play. When there is a lot of volume, the jackpot is hit in a shorter amount of time, so the game spends a shorter amount of time in +EV territory, which reduces the time available for me to place my bets. However, since a major jackpot gets hit ~10 times a day, a 99th percentile major jackpot will come around once every 10 days. Therefore, in the long run, there will be plenty of opportunities for me to spend my credits when the game is presumably +EV.
    Mission146
    Mission146
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    kalc
    September 8th, 2021 at 11:15:50 AM permalink
    In that case, all I can say is that I hope you hit one of them, if not more!
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    kalc
    kalc
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    September 11th, 2021 at 11:17:53 AM permalink
    I have been gathering data for a few days, and I have identified some spots that are potentially +EV.

    It turns out that there are a couple of games that have actual "must-hit-by" jackpots, and the amounts are published on the game screen. One game has a minor jackpot that goes from $50-100, but it almost always hits at exactly $100.00. When the meter approaches $100, the movement does not significantly speed up compared to when it is at $50, which suggests that there may not be many other players targeting this jackpot.

    Is there any way to determine if the meter is driven by wins or coin-in? The one clue that I have is that the major and minor jackpots do not increase at the same rate. Sometimes, the major increases by more than the minor, and vice versa.

    If the meter is driven by coin-in, then I can play one max bet when the meter is at $99.99. But if it is win based, then is it better to make several smaller bets in succession?
    SOOPOO
    SOOPOO
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    kalc
    September 11th, 2021 at 12:59:25 PM permalink
    Welcome to the forum, kalc. I am guessing that WHATEVER you get as a number that you THINK would make it positive EV to bet, you are wrong. You are not including the "you only played this progressive game with free play money" so you violated the spirit of the rules, and thus we are going to use rule 17-B-286 which voids your payment. However, you will still be able to use the $1 you bet!
    kalc
    kalc
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    September 11th, 2021 at 1:20:02 PM permalink
    Quote: SOOPOO

    Welcome to the forum, kalc. I am guessing that WHATEVER you get as a number that you THINK would make it positive EV to bet, you are wrong. You are not including the "you only played this progressive game with free play money" so you violated the spirit of the rules, and thus we are going to use rule 17-B-286 which voids your payment. However, you will still be able to use the $1 you bet!

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    Thank you for the welcome!

    I'm not under any illusions that I have found a guaranteed +EV spot. You are absolutely correct that there is the possibility that the casino doesn't actually pay out the jackpot, or the game is rigged against me because I am playing with free money. That said, although I have not won any jackpots yet, I have converted my free play money so far at slightly better than 1:1, so it's not like the slots don't pay at all.

    I would never play slots or casino table games with my own money, and therefore, I have no previous experience with casino games. If you have any other suggestions to maximize the value of my free credits, I'm all ears!

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