Progressive Video Slots - how to calculate the value of the jackpot

Here in the UK some casinos have progressive jackpot videoslots. Where this is a 'must hit by' figure these are easy to beat, however most of the time the progressive jackpot/s will keep building without any increased chance of hitting. I'm hoping somebody can help me with the maths required to figure out if these games ever become EV+.

1) By law all UK machines have to publish the house edge, and the pay tables, so I automatically have this information for any machine I assess. What isn't published is the probabilities of different payouts hitting. With the info I already have, is there a way to calculate what the probabilities are?

2) If the answer to my first question is yes, then with a progressive jackpot slot is there a way to calculate how much of the return is made up by the jackpot/s? I can calculate the contribution rate to the jackpot/s from each wager I make easily enough by wagering with a few different stake sizes and paying attention to how much the jackpots rise by.

I expect (pessimistically) that the proportion of the RTP% that comes from the jackpots is so small that for the game to become EV+ the jackpots would have to rise to astronomical heights. Also the variance could be killer if an EV+ play relied on hitting the largest jackpot. Regardless, this is something that's been bugging me for a few days now so if anyone can put me on the right track I would be very grateful!

I'm after similar information. Have you seen the Jackpot trackers that track which jackpots are over the average when they hit. I've seen people quoting a general rule that if the Jackpot is bigger than x3 the average hit then it is +EV but I'm not sure how accurate this information is

I haven't seen those, nor have I heard that rule. Before I put my money into anything I want to be clear on the specific maths myself rather than just following a service or general rule provided by someone else - if they have got the maths wrong I doubt they would be offering me compensation if I lost a lot of cash!

Cool I find anything I'll let you know. Good luck

Quote: blackjacklad

1) By law all UK machines have to publish the house edge, and the pay tables, so I automatically have this information for any machine I assess. What isn't published is the probabilities of different payouts hitting. With the info I already have, is there a way to calculate what the probabilities are?

Unfortunately, no, because there is more than one possible answer given those parameters. The one exception is a machine that has only two possible results; jackpot or nothing.

Example: suppose the machine has only two payouts - three Union Jacks pays 100, and three Double Decker Buses pays 3.
If the probability of winning 100 is 3 / 10,000 and the probability of winning 3 is 3200 / 10,000, the house edge is 1%.
If the probability of winning 100 is 6 / 10,000 and the probability of winning 3 is 3100 / 10,000, the house edge is also 1%.
If the probability of winning 100 is 9 / 10,000 and the probability of winning 3 is 3000 / 10,000, the house edge is also 1%.

I wrote a long post but it went too far afield. I would read Prozema's blog on reel stripping.

Quote: blackjacklad

Where this is a 'must hit by' figure these are easy to beat, however most of the time the progressive jackpot/s will keep building without any increased chance of hitting. I'm hoping somebody can help me with the maths required to figure out if these games ever become EV+.

Google "uncapped progressives". Before must-hits became more popular in early 2010s with APs (due to a decline in easier banking slots), a few APs spent time analyzing uncapped progressives.

One of my favorites was the $1 "Return of the Sphinx" - even with just one machine, you might get 2-3+ plays/day.
Massive differences in meter movement (100x or more). Some casinos eventually made the lowest progressive a flat $50.

I only met one other AP who did serious analysis on the game.
It was an interesting way to get small amounts of coin-in (before big must-hits), to show variety (camouflage), and to spend FP.

Most small-budget hustlers stayed away because you could spend $1,200 chasing a $50-200+ progressive (with $5-100+ EV).

Note 1: Never saw a $0.25 or $5 "Return of the Sphinx" with good meter movement.
Note 2: Modern remake of $1 "Return of the Sphinx" has interesting frequency data in the info screens.
Note 3: I'm never seen any PAR sheet versions. All my analysis was accumulated from plays.

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/general-guide-to-progressives/

Quote: Iamdaniel

I'm after similar information. Have you seen the Jackpot trackers that track which jackpots are over the average when they hit. I've seen people quoting a general rule that if the Jackpot is bigger than x3 the average hit then it is +EV but I'm not sure how accurate this information is

I can't speak for UK casinos, but on some games in the states, I would say that information is accurate enough to result in people going broke in a serious hurry. It's all about the probability of the jackpot event v. the value of the jackpot v. the percentage return of all of the other results. (Base Return)

So, it's true for some games, but not others. When it comes to uncapped progressives, I would guess that the, "General Rule," is false more often than it is true.