AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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March 13th, 2019 at 11:54:54 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz



If I was in Vegas this might be a different

Probably not.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
mamat
mamat
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March 14th, 2019 at 4:41:27 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Each game you can choose .25, .50 or $1 denom

Each game you can choose 5 lines, 10 lines or 20.

All games were for 1-5 credits so at 20 lines $1 fhe bets were $20 up to $100

REGARDLESS of game, denom, or number of lines all the must hit by amounts remain the same. Switching between denoms doesnt matter.

Tip #1: Paybacks may be different for every game, number of lines, or denomination. Variance will also vary.

Since it would be extremely suspicious to check 5x3x3=45 different games on the same machine, I only have partial knowledge of the possibilities.

Tip #2: I've never played an $8K major (released early 2017 or late 2016...I think). $10K Multi-wins are usually set about -1% lower than regular Ainsworth 10Ks in the same casino. In a casino with regular 10Ks at different settings (89%, 91%, 93%, 95%, 97%), it may be helpful to know when the Multi-Wins (88%, 90%, 92%, 94%, 96%) were installed compared to the regular Ainsworths. I have NO experience with $8K overall returns.

Cosmopolitan (Vegas): Saw 90.31% on one of the games/lines/denominations of a 10K Multi-Win.

Tip #3: On 10K Multi-wins, I've only seen one major meter, but the minor meter can be $250 or $222 (0.4% or 0.45%). On 5Ks, I've seen one case of $2,000 Major (0.05%) and $667 Minor (0.15%). I don't remember the 8K minor meters that I've played...I just check for $250 or $222.

Tip #4: With some progressives above $10K, casinos may manually reduce the overall return when the progressive is higher.

Tip #5: Ultimate progressives (20K, 25K, 50K) can be shared between multiple banks (sometimes not even in the same room or section)...and there are many different meters.

Quote: darkoz

If I attack a major must hit its like once a year

If I was in Vegas this might be a different story but on the East Coast APs who live off of must hits that go into positive EV play are most likely applying for welfare while they wait

In Vegas, about five 10Ks go +EV each month (More if you count mailers). Terrible location for big must-hits, so most people play them -EV for mailers (8K-15K+ per play).
In some areas, 75-100 10Ks go +EV every month (with a few hundred 5Ks).

As a vague rule of thumb, APs can catch about 30-40% of the +EV games. The original player who makes a game +EV will often play until they get the major. Many regular players and wannabe-APs also chase high numbers.

Teams that live off 5K-100K must-hits can play about 10-30/month (100-300/yr). Some fly to both coasts, central US, and overseas.

Quote: darkoz

There are only between 2 and 5 major must hits (not counting the small $300/$400 stuff) per casino. Not a lot of opportunities

Doesn't matter if there are only 1-2 5K-10Ks in a casino. Volume of play is important.
One casino has about 30 big must-hits (10 10Ks and 20 5Ks). I'm lucky to find one play/year! Sucks.
Even worse, there's a casino with 50+ big must-hits in an area I played for three years and I don't even have a players card.
Still haven't found a big play, so I do all the small plays uncarded.

Many casinos with 5Ks and 10Ks where I have not found a single play in 8 years (2011-2019).

If max bet is $5 or $15 and you can't bet fast, there won't be much action.
If max bet is $100-1,000 and you can bet fast (and the casino will key off jackpots...or feed them directly into the machine), a heavy player may take a machine from 9,200 to 9,800 in a few hours.
Some heavy players play three machines simultaneously at $100/spin.

When I first saw 10K Ainsworths in late 2011 or early 2012, I never saw more than 2-4 in one casino. People didn't bother to chase the major until 9,890. Ah...the old days....when I waited for 9,920-9,960. Two people snagged plays in the 9,980s. Two others nabbed 9,960s. Alas, I wasn't so lucky.

After 7-8 years, competition is much more intense. I've played 9,500s & some play lower in the 9200-9400s :-(
I quit playing big majors after Sep 2017. Numbers are too low for me these days.
Last edited by: mamat on Mar 14, 2019
darkoz
darkoz
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March 14th, 2019 at 8:37:52 AM permalink
Quote: mamat

Tip #1: Paybacks may be different for every game, number of lines, or denomination. Variance will also vary.

Since it would be extremely suspicious to check 5x3x3=45 different games on the same machine, I only have partial knowledge of the possibilities.

Tip #2: I've never played an $8K major (released early 2017 or late 2016...I think). $10K Multi-wins are usually set about -1% lower than regular Ainsworth 10Ks in the same casino. In a casino with regular 10Ks at different settings (89%, 91%, 93%, 95%, 97%), it may be helpful to know when the Multi-Wins (88%, 90%, 92%, 94%, 96%) were installed compared to the regular Ainsworths. I have NO experience with $8K overall returns.

Cosmopolitan (Vegas): Saw 90.31% on one of the games/lines/denominations of a 10K Multi-Win.

Tip #3: On 10K Multi-wins, I've only seen one major meter, but the minor meter can be $250 or $222 (0.4% or 0.45%). On 5Ks, I've seen one case of $2,000 Major (0.05%) and $667 Minor (0.15%). I don't remember the 8K minor meters that I've played...I just check for $250 or $222.

Tip #4: With some progressives above $10K, casinos may manually reduce the overall return when the progressive is higher.

Tip #5: Ultimate progressives (20K, 25K, 50K) can be shared between multiple banks (sometimes not even in the same room or section)...and there are many different meters.

In Vegas, about five 10Ks go +EV each month (More if you count mailers). Terrible location for big must-hits, so most people play them -EV for mailers (8K-15K+ per play).
In some areas, 75-100 10Ks go +EV every month (with a few hundred 5Ks).

As a vague rule of thumb, APs can catch about 30-40% of the +EV games. The original player who makes a game +EV will often play until they get the major. Many regular players and wannabe-APs also chase high numbers.

Teams that live off 5K-100K must-hits can play about 10-30/month (100-300/yr). Some fly to both coasts, central US, and overseas.

Doesn't matter if there are only 1-2 5K-10Ks in a casino. Volume of play is important.
One casino has about 30 big must-hits (10 10Ks and 20 5Ks). I'm lucky to find one play/year! Sucks.
Even worse, there's a casino with 50+ big must-hits in an area I played for three years and I don't even have a players card.
Still haven't found a big play, so I do all the small plays uncarded.

Many casinos with 5Ks and 10Ks where I have not found a single play in 8 years (2011-2019).

If max bet is $5 or $15 and you can't bet fast, there won't be much action.
If max bet is $100-1,000 and you can bet fast (and the casino will key off jackpots...or feed them directly into the machine), a heavy player may take a machine from 9,200 to 9,800 in a few hours.
Some heavy players play three machines simultaneously at $100/spin.

When I first saw 10K Ainsworths in late 2011 or early 2012, I never saw more than 2-4 in one casino. People didn't bother to chase the major until 9,890. Ah...the old days....when I waited for 9,920-9,960. Two people snagged plays in the 9,980s. Two others nabbed 9,960s. Alas, I wasn't so lucky.

After 7-8 years, competition is much more intense. I've played 9,500s & some play lower in the 9200-9400s :-(
I quit playing big majors after Sep 2017. Numbers are too low for me these days.



Thanks extremely for that answer Mamat.

Sounds a lot more difficult than taking someones temperature.

Even with a large concentration of machines its too dependent on the actions of other players for to take seriously as an AP play. Teams flying around the country? Subtract airfare and other expenses not to mention bad days where the return is less than the investment and it doesn't sound like a good team play.

Here on the East Coast where many casinos can be an hour apart drive it is also common to see the following scenario:

2 side by side must hits by $5,000. One meter is at $4,700. The other at $4,250. Only one player at the seats. Guess which one he is playing?

He most likely is playing the lower one. The average person here doesn't even know or care about must hits. As a result there is no action where needed to make it lucrative

But again thanks for the informative reply. I hope you have moved onto a more stable AP play
mamat
mamat
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Chuckleberry
March 14th, 2019 at 6:55:22 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Teams flying around the country? Subtract airfare and other expenses not to mention bad days where the return is less than the investment and it doesn't sound like a good team play.

For 100K, people are playing at about 20K-25K EV. So a flight/drive for that works.
For 50K, they play at 10K-12K EV.

For smaller 5K-10K must-hits, people don't usually fly for one game. They hear about a hot area or casino, fly/drive in, and stay for a few weeks/months.

EV/year =EV/play x #plays/year ... related to volume of play on machines.

------
If you visit a casino with must-hits, record all of the majors on every visit.
Visit every week. If casino moves quickly, visit every day.

Slow = Major moves 0-10 dollars/week
Fast = Major moves 100-200 dollars/day (with some moving 500-1,000 dollars/day).

--------
Once upon a time, 10K must-hits were much better plays.

5K must-hits have always been competitive since day 1, since the bankroll required is much lower. Soon as they are installed, local ploppies and semi-APs chase them. 5Ks have always been useful just for mailer plays, never for straight-up building cash (even in 2011-2012).

(1) Imagine 10Ks when people played at EV = $6,000+. With 4-10 plays/month. And mailers ($5K-15K/month).

(2) Competition grew and EV dropped to $4,000-5,000+. But volume of machines grew, and 10-20 plays/month was possible.
Much of the competition in some areas were rich ploppies, since most slot APs have very low bankrolls.

Just playing $500 minors could be $75K-100K/yr (one/day, EV 200-250) before mailers.

(3) EV $2,500-3,000+. Volume of machines grew more. Casinos started cracking down on big mailers (revoking FP after 1 visit, or even before any visits). Heat on people checking machine settings. Big must-hit players classified as APs and 86'ed. Team players doing pickups with other people's cards 86'ed.

(4) EV $1,800-2,000+ (below 102%). That was late 2016, about a year before my last play in Sep 2017.
Tried playing below 102% for a few months, and the variance sucked.

Even at 103-104%, too easy to have -$100K to -$200K months. Scary to think what the long-term variance is like at 102%.

(5) In some areas (like Vegas for 10Ks, and many places for 5Ks), EV -$1,500 to +$500 (98-101%). People using machines as pure mailer plays (5K-80K/machine). At one casino I played, possible 3-5 cards on one play, $12K-16K on each card, no heat on pickups, didn't have to play anything else when picking up FP for 3 months...and you could find machines at 102%.

-------
If you calculate 1/4 Kelly or 1/2 Kelly, the bankroll required was very low once upon a time.
Especially if you split 2-4 ways until you increased your bankroll.
But look at the 1/4 Kelly bankrolls when the game drops from 110% to 108% to 105% to 104% to 103% to 102% to 101.5% to 101%.
Compare playing 110-115% with a 3-way split, versus 102% by yourself. 15x-23x difference in bankroll.

In the past 4 years, every AP I've seen that's tried to play seriously (50+ plays) with a sub-$100K bankroll has quit due to losing most of their bankroll in a bad run.
-13K, -25K, +3K, -18K, +15K, -12K, -10K, +2K, -17K, -5K = -80K.
Occasionally I had 15-20 game losing streaks (some wins, but overall negative).

Quote: darkoz

Here on the East Coast where many casinos can be an hour apart drive...

In some areas, the casinos are 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 hrs apart...and 2 hrs is considered next door.

I heard of a crazy drive of over 8 hours (each way) to pick up one 10K play (pretty high EV).
That's about 20-24 hrs to do one play. But given the EV, still $250-400/hr.
darkoz
darkoz
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March 14th, 2019 at 7:12:48 PM permalink
Quote: mamat

For 100K, people are playing at about 20K-25K EV. So a flight/drive for that works.
For 50K, they play at 10K-12K EV.

For smaller 5K-10K must-hits, people don't usually fly for one game. They hear about a hot area or casino, fly/drive in, and stay for a few weeks/months.

EV/year =EV/play x #plays/year ... related to volume of play on machines.

------
If you visit a casino with must-hits, record all of the majors on every visit.
Visit every week. If casino moves quickly, visit every day.

Slow = Major moves 0-10 dollars/week
Fast = Major moves 100-200 dollars/day (with some moving 500-1,000 dollars/day).

--------
Once upon a time, 10K must-hits were much better plays.

5K must-hits have always been competitive since day 1, since the bankroll required is much lower. Soon as they are installed, local ploppies and semi-APs chase them. 5Ks have always been useful just for mailer plays, never for straight-up building cash (even in 2011-2012).

(1) Imagine 10Ks when people played at EV = $6,000+. With 4-10 plays/month. And mailers ($5K-15K/month).

(2) Competition grew and EV dropped to $4,000-5,000+. But volume of machines grew, and 10-20 plays/month was possible.
Much of the competition in some areas were rich ploppies, since most slot APs have very low bankrolls.

Just playing $500 minors could be $75K-100K/yr (one/day, EV 200-250) before mailers.

(3) EV $2,500-3,000+. Volume of machines grew more. Casinos started cracking down on big mailers (revoking FP after 1 visit, or even before any visits). Heat on people checking machine settings. Big must-hit players classified as APs and 86'ed. Team players doing pickups with other people's cards 86'ed.

(4) EV $1,800-2,000+ (below 102%). That was late 2016, about a year before my last play in Sep 2017.
Tried playing below 102% for a few months, and the variance sucked.

Even at 103-104%, too easy to have -$100K to -$200K months. Scary to think what the long-term variance is like at 102%.

(5) In some areas (like Vegas for 10Ks, and many places for 5Ks), EV -$1,500 to +$500 (98-101%). People using machines as pure mailer plays (5K-80K/machine). At one casino I played, possible 3-5 cards on one play, $12K-16K on each card, no heat on pickups, didn't have to play anything else when picking up FP for 3 months...and you could find machines at 102%.

-------
If you calculate 1/4 Kelly or 1/2 Kelly, the bankroll required was very low once upon a time.
Especially if you split 2-4 ways until you increased your bankroll.
But look at the 1/4 Kelly bankrolls when the game drops from 110% to 108% to 105% to 104% to 103% to 102% to 101.5% to 101%.
Compare playing 110-115% with a 3-way split, versus 102% by yourself. 15x-23x difference in bankroll.

In the past 4 years, every AP I've seen that's tried to play seriously (50+ plays) with a sub-$100K bankroll has quit due to losing most of their bankroll in a bad run.
-13K, -25K, +3K, -18K, +15K, -12K, -10K, +2K, -17K, -5K = -80K.
Occasionally I had 15-20 game losing streaks (some wins, but overall negative).

In some areas, the casinos are 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 hrs apart...and 2 hrs is considered next door.

I heard of a crazy drive of over 8 hours (each way) to pick up one 10K play (pretty high EV).
That's about 20-24 hrs to do one play. But given the EV, still $250-400/hr.



Very informative and thanks very much sincerely

It sounds like I missed the good times with must hits. I began in 2012 and seriously in late 2013 with my AP play just on the down hill end

I still think the variance is a big killer and the travelling even worse. Although I do travel it sounds like you also need a network of intimates in place to check on must hit levels in all markets so you know when a play is ripe to travel too (casinos dont advertise must hit levels to my knowledge)

A book on this would be fascinating history (im serious) you should write something up if the play is a done deal for you now and hardly lucrative like before
onenickelmiracle
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RogerKint
March 14th, 2019 at 7:25:18 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Very informative and thanks very much sincerely

It sounds like I missed the good times with must hits. I began in 2012 and seriously in late 2013 with my AP play just on the down hill end

I still think the variance is a big killer and the travelling even worse. Although I do travel it sounds like you also need a network of intimates in place to check on must hit levels in all markets so you know when a play is ripe to travel too (casinos dont advertise must hit levels to my knowledge)

A book on this would be fascinating history (im serious) you should write something up if the play is a done deal for you now and hardly lucrative like before

It's really not. I'd rather watch someone watching TV. Who likes sell-outs that can't be trusted anyway? Peter Liston already wrote that book.
They tried to kill us, Jimmy. They did. They're dirty f**king cops! *photo is not of an AP, just a morbidly obese hill billy. Jar Jar Binks was supposed to be the Sith Lord . Nathan is going to run and own this place
mamat
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Chuckleberry
March 15th, 2019 at 12:36:38 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

A book on this would be fascinating history (im serious) you should write something up if the play is a done deal for you now and hardly lucrative like before

Intermediate Must-Hits (e.g. Must-Hit 201). [LONG]
There's a "TL;DR" summary of 7 points at the end...if you want to skip the long stories and "preaching".

The action on big must-hits is not really about the math (That's Must-Hit 101). It's more like live chess, or politics.

In 2009-2011, very few serious APs played must-hits. I did meet a multi-generational Canadian team that played WMS must-hits & thought their strategy was crazy. They played super-low compared to any other machine APs I know (other people wanted 490 on a 500 major, and they played 470), and had crazy cover stories for their methods. Not until 4 years later did I realize what they were doing. Ding! They were playing slots at 110-140%. Lots of short-term losses, but overall +EV.

But the decline of easier machines (200%-1,000%+) slowly led other APs to investigate the math of must-hits (playing below 150%).
When I started playing them, I had no idea about machine settings. I didn't think that the same machine in two casinos might have two different settings.

But at the super-high numbers I was playing, it didn't matter if a machine was 84% or 99%.

Fast-forward to 2019.
Here are three stories (Note: The exact numbers and names have been changed, and the 3rd story is a mix of multiple events.)

----
(1) Some teams who have been playing for 2+ years still have NO idea that there are machine settings.

They see other people playing 4850 & 9750. So they snap up 4850s & 9750s, not realizing that almost all of them are 84% and 88% machines.
Pro teams who play the area are playing 4850@96% and 9750@97%. Laughing at the stupid amateurs, but really wishing they would go broke & leave.

False flag actions:
(A) A pro may pretend to be waiting for a low machine @84% when a less-informed competitor is around. If they get the machine, they might even put money in and play it for a little while.
(B) If the machine is 99% at a decent number (but not fantastic), they might purposely walk away from the machine when competition is around. Or play it a little and quit. Then when no one else is around, hammer the machine quickly.
(C) If seen playing a machine with a low number (and high machine settings), they might have a story like "I'm playing for the minor" or "I'm playing for fun"...or even cash out of the machine & offer it to the other person.

What's going on?
In the beginning people have no idea about machine settings.
At the next level, people think that all $s and 1s in a casino have the same settings (10Ks are 91%, and 5Ks are 87%).
Then people realize that banks might each have different settings.
Then. Wow. Every machine might have a different setting.

At maybe 10% of casinos, once a machine is installed, it NEVER changes. However, the GM/VP-Slots philosophy may change each year, so the floor ends up being a mix of 84%, 87%, 92%, and 95%.
On the other extreme, some casinos experiment every few months. Bump two 93% machines to 97%. Drop two 95% to 91%.

Some teams keep spreadsheets of 1,000s of machines: Setting, Date last checked, Machine number (in case it moves to somewhere else on the floor). It's a PITA. Tracking 1,000 must-hit numbers is easy. Getting recent/current machine data - that's hard.

Doing math behind a must-hit is rather trivial.

-----
(2) New teams who've only been playing 1-2 years (even AP teams from the worlds of tables or poker) sometimes don't realize how play has evolved in 8 years (2011-2019). Big sports betters would probably adapt quickly, but the money in machine slots is too low for them.

Multi-generational AP:
One guy who won the World Series of Poker...has a Dad who published a PhD on Blackjack.

Even some regular players (ploppies) have 5-10 friends who call them when machines are high.
And regular players have formed teams of 2-5 people, usually family members & close friends.

Tracking the PLAYERS is very important. If John starts playing 9600, will he (a) ALWAYS drop the progressive (b) 90% drop the progressive (c) 95% leave in 0-2 hrs.
The best kind of player? Someone who plays heavy from 9400-9850 and calls you at 9850 when they (a) have to go to work (b) are bored (c) ran out of money, emptied credit cards, and bank doesn't open for 6 hrs.

So here's a story.

I receive a call from Barry (a doctor who does AP on the side, but not a lot of machine slots) about a machine with $6,000-8,000 EV. He doesn't know the machine setting, and I don't either. The casino has a reputation for changing it's settings every few months, so it could be 90% or 92% (unlikely to be 88% or 94%). He got battered in the casino, and doesn't want to take the risk of playing the progressive, even with $6K-8K EV, because he doesn't have much cash on him.

I'm busy planning a party the next day for 100-200 people, and the casino would be a 5 hr round-trip by car, so I broker a deal between Barry and Mary (person running another team). It's actually pretty easy because Mary would have been willing to pay much more than what Barry wanted, so each person gets a better deal than they anticipated.

Mary will send one of her team members to play the game (since Mary was 86'ed from the casino).

Barry doesn't do any negotiation on the phone. Modern casino surveillance can record AUDIO (not just video), and they employ lip-readers.

In a more perfect world: My number doesn't show up on Barry's phone, and it's also saved as a pseudonym. The player who shows up (Steve) is two phone numbers removed from Barry.
In the actual world: Barry & I have never done this together, so details are available on casino surveillance. Bummer. The casino could track this cell number to me. It's not a casino I care about very much (not in my bread & butter "Top 10" casinos), so I'm ok with being sloppy.

Note: The phone in this story is no longer in use. I currently use a prepaid phone, but it's monthly billed to a bank account (for a discount), so it also can be traced. There are $10-15 5" Android phones and $5-10/month plans which you can buy 1 month at a time (reloadable cards purchased in cash at stores).

Blind handover.

Barry's instructions are "No talking" and "No exchanging money". He's an experienced AP.
He wants the "player" (Steve) to wear a black T-shirt and sit two machines to his left. The person should put $45 in the slot machine.
At which point Barry will cash out of the progressive, let Steve take over the machine, and Barry will leave.

Even though he hasn't ever met Mary (and Mary has no idea who Barry is), he trusts that he will get paid.

Now why might the casino let Steve play?
Steve might be getting a cut of the action and FP (say $120,000/yr), but they have a very bad gambling habit, and lose ALL of it back (plus some of their salary from they job). As far as the casino is concerned, Steve is a legitimate loser.

Mary's making money. Steve is treading water (a "break-even" gambler), having a good time, but losing money to casinos.
Barry's making money.

Amateurs (or sloppy pros): Pay spotters at the machine in front of cameras. Are seen walking with spotters into bathrooms. Are seen with spotters and known APs going into the same car in the casino parking lot.

Better: Split money and pay people at LEAST a few miles away from the casino.
Or just maintain a running balance. I have many running balances which are 3-6+ years old. Overall, it's about even (within +/- $2,000).

-----
(3) A lot of dynamics are between teams. Good teams tend to develop turf and a mutual respect/distance.

If one team is annoying the other, team B might send 3 people to play one of team A's main casinos for a few months.
Worst thing to happen: Conflict and 30 people get 86'ed (including many with $50K-150K FP/year).

So here's another story. A fictional mix of some actual events.

I'm hanging out in Casino Zorro, but Team Beta has a trio camped out at that casino (almost 24/7, which is why Non-Team Beta people have a very hard time finding plays). There are two fairly high machines in 9600s, so I call Mary, one of the main Team Beta people, and negotiate a split. We don't want to take the machine early at 9650 (+EV, but not so hot), rather we mutually decide to wait until 9750. I check into the hotel, and wait.

Receive a call from Mary that the machine is 9710, and she has one of the trio sitting on the machine. Ziggy, a regular player, has been spotted in the casino, and will play anything 9600+. Ziggy never leaves. So I give the ok to start playing.

We end up losing -8K on the first machine, but luckily Steve grabs the second machine also and makes a quick +12K, so we're up a little.

I've never touched either machine.
Mary hasn't even entered the casino.

I go play some random machines to look like a regular customer (since I booked a hotel room).
Throw in some 98-99% VP. Don't use my card on small AP slots unless they are marginal (even then, it's sometimes good to stay away from all AP slots).

Later, I talk to a contact who has access to Steve's players account (and Win/Loss).
Turns out we made +6K, and they lied when they said we won +4K.

I chalk it up as a cost of business. Don't tell Mary what I know about Steve's play. I don't know if they are both cheating me, or just Steve.

6 months later. Mary complains about Steve to me. Analysis of his play is much lower than theoretical. I tell Mary about what I learned about Steve's Win/Loss from that day. Mary ends up booting Steve from her team.

12 months later. Steve is playing again with Mary, but now Mary always has someone else watching his play (and might have someone monitoring his Win/Losses).

-----
(4) Advice for APs.

I should add "Don't get greedy and take too much from any one casino. Don't kill the Golden Goose. Casinos are here to make money."
Hitting $100K-150K seems to be a threshold with many casinos.
Instead $50K/yr from 10 casinos = $500K/yr
Better $75K from 6, $50K from 6, Even at 2, -$25K at 6, -50K at 2 = $500K/yr at 22 casinos.

If AP competition can raise regular player volume & overall casino profits, they may add machines and be AP-friendly.
If AP competition lowers regular player volume & casino profits by frustrating big-budget ploppies who spend $100K-500K/yr, they may become AP-hostile.

The most successful casinos seem to create a market of
(a) Conservative APs waiting for 4,950s and 9,900s - getting very few plays
(b) APs waiting for 4,900 and 9,700 - getting some plays
(c) Wannabe-APs and regular players waiting for 4,750 and 9,500 - and playing a lot

$50K/yr from a casino is only $150/day. It probably won't bother a casino if profits rise $200K/yr.

I tracked one casino with six 10Ks over two months, and they probably made $75,000/wk. ($1,800/day/machine).
If APs score two $10Ks/wk at $2,000/play = $4,000/wk ($100/day/machine).

There's also "collateral damage": regular players spending money on nearby machines.
(a) Waiting for the machine you are playing
(b) Playing nearby machines because of your "butt in seat" time ... like a paid "shill" at the poker table.

Sometimes I sit down at high-limit baccarat tables or blackjack tables to chat up cute dealers.
Inevitably some other people sit down to start playing. I used to joke that I should get paid. :-)

A casino may be willing to lose a little slot money and "customer retention"/marketing money for the "butt in seat" time you provide.
Help make must-hits popular (or any other machine), and a wise casino will like you.

Be friendly to staff and big-budget players.
Some APs say don't talk to staff. I say the opposite.

Smart casino staff know exactly what you are doing.
Banking slot machines have been around since...like...forever.

Smart casinos read WoV and other gambling social networks.

It's like playing Blackjack at a table where people are losing $10K-20K each, and you make 1K-3K. If you keep the people at your table entertained, the "table drop" looks good to the casino, pit boss is happy, dealers are happy, VP of Table Games is happy, GM is happy.

Bring friends who have lots of money, and don't mind spending $100K-500K/yr in the casino.
Those are the people who become regular players of big must-hits.

Personal preferences: Do not cheat other people or the casino. Follow the rules of casino marketing methods.
I know some people don't have my same preferences. Everybody follows different paths in life.

-----
It's the weird world of must-hits.

Know the regular players.
Know the wannabe-APs.
Know the major and minor teams.
All three sets have spotters and networks, so need to recognize all of them.
Lot of people who are creative about the truth.
Lose 1-10% of profits to theft and camouflage.
Know the casinos.
Try not to get 86'ed.

-----
TL;DR
Summary of Intermediate Must-Hit (Must-Hit 201).
(1) Machine setting information for 1,000s of machines is more important than basic math.
(2) Playing must-hits is a "people game" (regular players, wannabe-APs, APs, casinos), more than a math game.
(3) Competition may play lower when you are around. They may "false flag" to conceal better games.
(4) Don't do stupid stuff with spotters/partners and get 86'ed.
(5) Don't get greedy and take too much from any one casino (maybe 50K/yr). Don't kill the Golden Goose. Casinos are here to make money. Smart casinos know exactly what you do. Smart casinos read WoV and other gambling social networks.
(6) Try to make machines popular with regular players. Help the casinos. It also helps APs. If a slot machine doesn't make the casino enough money, it will be pulled.
(7) You might lose 10% of profits to theft and camouflage. Don't sweat it.
Last edited by: mamat on Mar 15, 2019
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 660
March 15th, 2019 at 6:05:21 AM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

I'm now stumped even more than before. You'd think the Most Feared AP "TEAM LEADER" on the East Coast would know how to calculate a Must Hit.
I'll add a Geeze😂 behind the Really?



Pro tip: Not everyone on here who claims to be an AP is an AP.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 125
  • Posts: 15794
March 15th, 2019 at 6:23:52 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Very informative and thanks very much sincerely

It sounds like I missed the good times with must hits. I began in 2012 and seriously in late 2013 with my AP play just on the down hill end

I still think the variance is a big killer and the travelling even worse. Although I do travel it sounds like you also need a network of intimates in place to check on must hit levels in all markets so you know when a play is ripe to travel too (casinos dont advertise must hit levels to my knowledge)

A book on this would be fascinating history (im serious) you should write something up if the play is a done deal for you now and hardly lucrative like before

I swear you said in a previous post that you have been doing AP for like 10 year's. I remember taking notice to something like that since your first posts on here were about roulette system.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
  • Threads: 206
  • Posts: 4537
Thanks for this post from:
jekajuasd
March 15th, 2019 at 7:11:44 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I swear you said in a previous post that you have been doing AP for like 10 year's. I remember taking notice to something like that since your first posts on here were about roulette system.



I have posted my history in the Dark Oz History (aptly named) thread.

I signed on as a member in 2009 because the site came up in an internet search for my film project Dark Oz (Wizardofodds)

I joined out of a general interest in gambling

I wrote some fiction at the time detailing how to beat the casino from a science fictions perspective "A foolproof system for beating roulette" and at the Wizards special request crafted a story "A Newcomb Beings Paradox" altogether I believe I posted about 7 or 8 science fiction pieces.

I had no idea AP existed or even was aware of the term. I would sporadically come on this site and if you examine my post history it radically grew larger around 2013-4. After I discovered AP techniques quite on my own when not even looking for them

So AP only since 2012 (minor stuff) and 2013 (major moves)for me

There is some irony or perhaps destiny that I was a member of a site known for AP attendance before I became on my own an AP. Such is the fickleness of fate I suppose
Last edited by: darkoz on Mar 15, 2019

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