How to guesstimate slot machine payback percentage?

Unlike video poker, there's no way to know the exact return % for a slot machine. However, sometimes we need to accumulate some points on slots for camouflage purposes.

All I know is that:
Higher denomination return more than lower denomination.
The fancier the machine, the lower the return.
Some progressive slots and accumulative slots can be beaten, but it might not worth the time to scout.

When you walk into a casino, how to estimate which slot has the highest return?
Old fashion 3 reel fruit slots vs ugly multi-line video slots, which tend to have a higher return?
$1 dollar denomination fruit slots, play 3 credit vs 1¢ multiline video slots, play 60 lines 5x bet. Both plays are $3 per bet, which tend to have a higher return?

Quote:

Unlike video poker, there's no way to know the exact return % for a slot machine. However, sometimes we need to accumulate some points on slots for camouflage purposes.

This may be old news, but there are slots (at El Cortez) that tell you your payback based on your bet. I assume this is something new, more or less, though I don't get to the casinos as often these days.


\See link.

https://youtu.be/715wxgCvCXE?t=16

Quote: WalterW

Unlike video poker, there's no way to know the exact return % for a slot machine. However, sometimes we need to accumulate some points on slots for camouflage purposes.

All I know is that:
Higher denomination return more than lower denomination.
The fancier the machine, the lower the return.
Some progressive slots and accumulative slots can be beaten, but it might not worth the time to scout.

When you walk into a casino, how to estimate which slot has the highest return?
Old fashion 3 reel fruit slots vs ugly multi-line video slots, which tend to have a higher return?
$1 dollar denomination fruit slots, play 3 credit vs 1¢ multiline video slots, play 60 lines 5x bet. Both plays are $3 per bet, which tend to have a higher return?

You have a few of the keys already. I was a Slot Director for a short time. Here are many of the ways to get a lower house edge machine:

Do not play any TV, movie or celebrity themed game. They cost the casino more in revenue sharing (they also cant be purchased), so the hold is always higher.

Higher denomination games are almost always a lower house edge. If you are going to play $3 per spin, play a 3 credit dollar machine rather than 300 credit penny or multi line quarter machine.

Look for machines with no progressive. Progressive take some of your money and you have a slim to slimmer chance of winning it. Machines with 4000, 8,000 or 10,000 credit top pays well generally pay back better than larger ones and progressives.

Play machines in the middle of a bank. Many casinos use a lettering system or some other way to classify machines by their real estate value. A machines are on the ends of banks or on 2 and 4 machine islands. These give players more room, so many places increase the hold. B machines are the second machine in on both sides of a bank. C and D are middle machines of 5-8 machine banks. A lot of times you can get 1 or 2% lower hold on these machines.

Another factor in how fast your money goes, but not necessarily related to the hold is volatility. Every manufacturer now rates their machines with a volatility scale when they pitch it or install it in a casino. You don't have access to this, but there are two things you can do to help. One, search the internet for low volatility slots. There are sights that talk about them once in a while. Some people also call the "trickle" machines or "trickle back" machines as you get a lot more wins but some/many are the same as or less than your bet. Second, ask a slot department which machines are lower volatility. Most wont know. Many will look at you with a dumb look on their face. But some will know. I would tell players which ones were less volatile if they asked or if I knew a friend was going to be playing.

That's all I can think of right now. Good luck!


ZCore13

Well there's a couple things you can do.

1) Figure out the HE of the machine. Shouldn't have to explain this one.
2) Find out the state minimum in your state, you can always use that as a "worst case" scenario benchmark.
3) Look up the casinos pubic records to see the "average" per denomination in any casino/slot house.

When you put 2 and 3 together you can usually get a decent "guess" and play a % or 2 against you to be safer...

Quote: Zcore13

...Play machines in the middle of a bank. Many casinos use a lettering system or some other way to classify machines by their real estate value. A machines are on the ends of banks or on 2 and 4 machine islands. These give players more room, so many places increase the hold. B machines are the second machine in on both sides of a bank. C and D are middle machines of 5-8 machine banks. A lot of times you can get 1 or 2% lower hold on these machine...

ZCore13

Pretty cool and interesting, thanks for sharing.

Quote: Zcore13

Quote: WalterW

Unlike video poker, there's no way to know the exact return % for a slot machine. However, sometimes we need to accumulate some points on slots for camouflage purposes.

All I know is that:
Higher denomination return more than lower denomination.
The fancier the machine, the lower the return.
Some progressive slots and accumulative slots can be beaten, but it might not worth the time to scout.

When you walk into a casino, how to estimate which slot has the highest return?
Old fashion 3 reel fruit slots vs ugly multi-line video slots, which tend to have a higher return?
$1 dollar denomination fruit slots, play 3 credit vs 1¢ multiline video slots, play 60 lines 5x bet. Both plays are $3 per bet, which tend to have a higher return?

You have a few of the keys already. I was a Slot Director for a short time. Here are many of the ways to get a lower house edge machine:

Do not play any TV, movie or celebrity themed game. They cost the casino more in revenue sharing (they also cant be purchased), so the hold is always higher.

Higher denomination games are almost always a lower house edge. If you are going to play $3 per spin, play a 3 credit dollar machine rather than 300 credit penny or multi line quarter machine.

Look for machines with no progressive. Progressive take some of your money and you have a slim to slimmer chance of winning it. Machines with 4000, 8,000 or 10,000 credit top pays well generally pay back better than larger ones and progressives.

Play machines in the middle of a bank. Many casinos use a lettering system or some other way to classify machines by their real estate value. A machines are on the ends of banks or on 2 and 4 machine islands. These give players more room, so many places increase the hold. B machines are the second machine in on both sides of a bank. C and D are middle machines of 5-8 machine banks. A lot of times you can get 1 or 2% lower hold on these machines.

Another factor in how fast your money goes, but not necessarily related to the hold is volatility. Every manufacturer now rates their machines with a volatility scale when they pitch it or install it in a casino. You don't have access to this, but there are two things you can do to help. One, search the internet for low volatility slots. There are sights that talk about them once in a while. Some people also call the "trickle" machines or "trickle back" machines as you get a lot more wins but some/many are the same as or less than your bet. Second, ask a slot department which machines are lower volatility. Most wont know. Many will look at you with a dumb look on their face. But some will know. I would tell players which ones were less volatile if they asked or if I knew a friend was going to be playing.

That's all I can think of right now. Good luck!


ZCore13

The Ellen game was actually really good in like its first week, giving frequent $300 wins on $1.50 and then went to crap after that. So I would say play a Celebrity themed Slot only in its first week.

Quote: WalterW

Unlike video poker, there's no way to know the exact return % for a slot machine. However, sometimes we need to accumulate some points on slots for camouflage purposes.

All I know is that:
Higher denomination return more than lower denomination.
The fancier the machine, the lower the return.
Some progressive slots and accumulative slots can be beaten, but it might not worth the time to scout.

I have found one exception to my "dollar slots tend to be looser than quarter slots, which in turn are looser than penny slots" rule - Megabucks. If you check the numbers for gambling earnings by the Nevada casinos, Megabucks has a much lower return to player percentage than other dollar slots.

Also, it's going to be very hard to calculate a true expected return on a slot machine with any reasonably large jackpot using a Monte Carlo method (keep playing and calculate the fraction of what you won to what you put in), for the same reason this doesn't work very well in Video Poker - a considerable amount of the expected return is in the jackpot/Royal Flush, which probably won't come up in your play (and if it does, it will skew the value in the opposite direction).

Presumably, multi-reel video slots don't have "virtual" stops, so Monte Carlo is easier, but a lot of the return is in the bonus rounds, and it's very hard to gauge those from casual play.

Thanks ZCore, it's helpful.
3 reel 777 slot vs multiline video slot, same denomination, which one tends to have a higher return?

Quote: WalterW

Thanks ZCore, it's helpful.
3 reel 777 slot vs multiline video slot, same denomination, which one tends to have a higher return?

Every thing I read hints at the reel slots.

Quote: WalterW

Thanks ZCore, it's helpful.
3 reel 777 slot vs multiline video slot, same denomination, which one tends to have a higher return?

You can't really know if they are both generic slot themed. Both can be set higher or lower. Triple stars, Triple butterflies are older 3 real machines that are usually set a little lower hold to get people to play them. Older machines are usually owned outright by the casino and can be set to a lower hold. Most new machines are a 80/20 split between manufacturer and casino so hold is a little higher.


ZCore13

Isn't old 3 reel slots have a lower variance

Thanks, I'll look for:
$5 or higher denomination
non-progressive
triple stars/triple butterflies or other not fancy looking reel slots
in the middle of a bank

It should be the best way to gestimate without inside info.

Red Hot Jackpots is a 5 mechanical reel slot machine with a progressive $5, $20, $100 and $5,000 jackpots. If you bet $1 (the max) and get 3 or more red hot jackpots, you will win those (3 red hots wins $5 and the free spins can add $20, and can also add $100, though that one has not happened to me yet). Four red hots wins you the $20 and you can win $100 (I got that once). Five red hots win the $100 and you can win $5000 (sadly, that has not happened to me). You can win $5,000 progressive outright by getting the top symbols on the reels.

I have been keeping track of the probability of winning the 5, 5+20, 20 only, and 20+100 by recording total number of spins, number of 5, 5+20, 20 only, and 20+100 jackpot wins. I also recorded the meter rate of the $5, $20, $100 and $5,000 jackpots.

I have made a total of 4,357 spins since I started this study. The probability of getting a $5 (5 only or 5+20) is 1 in 52, the probability of getting a $20 (5+20, 20 only, or 20+100) is 1 in 132, for an overall chance of getting some jackpot 1 in 46.

Using those probabilities, I calculated that if the $5 jackpot is now at $10, and the $20 jackpot was just won (i.e. it's exactly $20), it adds 9.5% to the base RTP. If the $5 jackpot is exactly $5, and the $20 jackpot is now at $30, it adds 7.5% to the base RTP. If both the $5 jackpot is at $10 and the $20 jackpot is now at $30, it adds 17% to the base RTP.

Unfortunately I don't know what the base RTP is. I should have kept track of cash in, cash out, what the progressive jackpot won was (then subtract the excess over the jackpot reset amount to arrive at the base return), but I didn't do that.

But if you assume that the base RTP is 85%, it means if the $5 jackpot is at $10 and the $20 jackpot is at $30, or the $5 jackpot is at $15 and the $20 jackpot is just $20, you're at roughly 100% return. When the jackpots are in the middle, it's fairly easy to estimate the additional RTP since it's linear.

So, what I do is look at the current jackpot amounts, do a little math in my head, and then decide whether or not to play. However, these figures are only good if you are the only player. If there is one other player who is also betting $1/spin, then you are competing with someone, so you have to cut those percentage additions in half. Someone there's another player betting less than $1/spin, which is great, because it adds to the jackpot that they cannot win.

That's pretty much the only slot machine I ever play, and it exists in just one casino in Reno.

For other slot machines, while the expected value of a quarter denomination may be lower than a $5 denomination, it's not drastically less. Assuming you are going to wager the same number of dollars in total, the variance for the 25c denom is far less than the $5 one. The downside is that if you win the jackpot, you'll win far more on the $5 machine than the 25c machine. Decisions, decisions....

As slot machines are being installed, slot techs will flip through 2-3+ screens where the payback percentages are shown.
Sometimes staff will walk around with a clipboard, checking the payback percentages.

So I was able to see a bank of eight $5K progressive machines (84.xx% on 1c) being installed by Harrahs.
Last visit to Vegas, I saw settings at Four Queens (86.xx% on 1c), Main Street Station (87.xx% on 1c), and Cosmopolitan (90.xx% on $1).

Machine settings will vary between machines, but you can get a general feel for how tight/loose a casino is.
Keep in mind that $1 machines and 1c machines at the same casino will usually be 3-5% different.

Depending on your area, settings may be 80-100+%.
Some slot machines have different paybacks at different bet sizes (Usually the highest bet has higher payback, but occasionally the highest bet is set to a lower payback).

I spotted a good one the other day. Local east coast casino was installing "Selexion" 1c machines by Konami. It had 2 payback percentages. Base game payout was around 85%, but then there was an "overall payout including progressive" which was 90%.

In addition, there were brand new machines installed of a different breed, where the set payback was 89%, and the "actual payback" was 104%, with the exact coin-in/coin-out figures. I looked over the tech's shoulder as he was texting the boss, asking if they wanted him to shut the machines down that were paying out too much. In the end, they didn't shut them down.

Quote: wrxrob

I spotted a good one the other day. Local east coast casino was installing "Selexion" 1c machines by Konami. It had 2 payback percentages. Base game payout was around 85%, but then there was an "overall payout including progressive" which was 90%.

In addition, there were brand new machines installed of a different breed, where the set payback was 89%, and the "actual payback" was 104%, with the exact coin-in/coin-out figures. I looked over the tech's shoulder as he was texting the boss, asking if they wanted him to shut the machines down that were paying out too much. In the end, they didn't shut them down.

The actual pay back just means its had some early jackpots hit. It happens. It will work it's way back to 89% just like it's supposed to.


ZCore13

Doesn't the American Casino Guide have some good overall average paybacks for Vegas by Strip vs Downtown and by denom ?

I recoomend this formula and try new slot game Gemtopia Slot .On average, you'll have lost 10% of $100 after playing slots slowly for an hour. Here's the calculation: (wager)*(payout %)-(wager) = (loss). In the example above: $200*0.95-$200 = -$10. Also see online slot payouts.Good luck.

While your expected loss might be between $10 and $20, in practice normally you would lose more but occasionally win. Here are the figures for the first 200 plays of a typical fruit machine (this is based on a real one I have info on at 92.5%).

29% of the time, starting with $100, playing 200 times ($1 each spin), you would lose your bankroll. 77% of the time you would lose at least $10. The good news is 20% of the time you come out ahead.

Range	Times
0-9	0.001%
10-19	0.018%
20-29	0.120%
30-39	0.507%
40-49	1.326%
50-59	2.641%
60-69	4.202%
70-79	5.763%
80-89	6.978%
90-99	7.707%
100-109	7.879%
110-119	7.653%
120-129	7.035%
130-139	6.267%
140-149	5.368%
150-159	4.462%
160-169	3.654%
170-179	2.969%
180-189	2.444%
190-199	2.062%
200-209	1.720%
210-219	1.451%
220-229	1.296%
230-239	1.103%
240-249	0.995%
250-259	0.881%
260-269	0.753%
270-279	0.660%
280-289	0.607%
290-299	0.542%
300-309	0.501%
310-319	0.464%
320-329	0.420%
330-339	0.374%
340-349	0.334%
350-359	0.292%
360-369	0.248%
370-379	0.215%
380-389	0.181%
390-399	0.159%
400-5346	7.747%