Luck is a strange thing
May 26th, 2016 at 1:04:37 PM
permalink
Nobody would play at the casino if all games were at 80%. I know a director and while he wouldn't give me exact numbers he did say we shouldn't have had a problem achieving over 89% on a $.25 denom game.
Credit to mickeycrimm
You add together the totals and divide by 2 to get the average hit point.
$4000+5000 = $9000 / 2 = $4500
That's 50000 movements at $4.75 per or $237,500 coin in. It pays you back $4500 so..
$4500 / $237,500 = 0.0189473684210.
1.9%
Credit to mickeycrimm
You add together the totals and divide by 2 to get the average hit point.
$4000+5000 = $9000 / 2 = $4500
That's 50000 movements at $4.75 per or $237,500 coin in. It pays you back $4500 so..
$4500 / $237,500 = 0.0189473684210.
1.9%
May 26th, 2016 at 1:27:26 PM
permalink
One would think this changes with the scope of the play? ...The progressive starts/ends at 4000/5000 respectively. The "average hit point" is the middle. However, If you happen across the machine at $4500, then the range from your perspective is $4500-$5000, with the average hit point being $4750. This is also known as "The Halfway Theory" to which myself and others believe in when plotting out "on average" when the progressive will hit and helping to determine whether or not to play a machine.
Let me try it for my example:
4500 + 5000 = 9500 / 2 = 4750
That's 250, or 25,000 pennies at 4.75 per penny... so total action of $118,750. It will then pay you back 4750 so..
4750 / 118,750 = .04
4%
So when the meter raises, the % payback from the progressive becomes more valuable to the machine. This is from a play perspective. I'd agree to use your 1.9% BASE for the machine as that's how the machine is when it's reset. I'm just trying to figure if this needs figured in to a play... More/less rambling out loud hoping for some interesting discussion =P.
Let me try it for my example:
4500 + 5000 = 9500 / 2 = 4750
That's 250, or 25,000 pennies at 4.75 per penny... so total action of $118,750. It will then pay you back 4750 so..
4750 / 118,750 = .04
4%
So when the meter raises, the % payback from the progressive becomes more valuable to the machine. This is from a play perspective. I'd agree to use your 1.9% BASE for the machine as that's how the machine is when it's reset. I'm just trying to figure if this needs figured in to a play... More/less rambling out loud hoping for some interesting discussion =P.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
May 26th, 2016 at 3:03:57 PM
permalink
When we got on at $4937.17...
5000.00 - 4937.17 = 6283 / 2 = 3141 halfway point movements. The dollar amount at halfway is $4968.58.
3141 * $4.75 = $14,919.75 coin in
$4968.58 / $14,919.75 = 33.3% payback from the major.
Add that to base game payback %, subtract a little less than the minor %, and hopefully it's over 100%.
Now the minor is a little different. We're 100% going to realize all of the Major however we may not actualize all 2.8% of the Minor. The reason is that we may hit it once or twice but then we run it up to something like $180 and abandon it. So we should subtract a portion of this progressive % from our calcs.
If we're chasing a minor on this machine, we need to subtract close to the full 2.8% of the major because we're not going to actualize it with our small coin in (unless we get really lucky).
5000.00 - 4937.17 = 6283 / 2 = 3141 halfway point movements. The dollar amount at halfway is $4968.58.
3141 * $4.75 = $14,919.75 coin in
$4968.58 / $14,919.75 = 33.3% payback from the major.
Add that to base game payback %, subtract a little less than the minor %, and hopefully it's over 100%.
Now the minor is a little different. We're 100% going to realize all of the Major however we may not actualize all 2.8% of the Minor. The reason is that we may hit it once or twice but then we run it up to something like $180 and abandon it. So we should subtract a portion of this progressive % from our calcs.
If we're chasing a minor on this machine, we need to subtract close to the full 2.8% of the major because we're not going to actualize it with our small coin in (unless we get really lucky).
May 27th, 2016 at 6:06:35 AM
permalink
I have never used thie above process and I'm not a math guy but I would never jump on a machine at some of those numbers
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
May 27th, 2016 at 7:32:43 AM
permalink
I agree with your math. I would stop at the point of looking at EV return. Once you determined 4968.58 was the "halfway" you could determine "worst case scenario" for that amount to see whether or not on average it's a play (understanding it could hit before or after that half way point - but in the long run it will hit at that point).
I came up with an EV of only like -$1800, while the major would provide back about $3300 (after taxes). Sounds like a play to me =).
I think we're speaking the same language, but different dialects. You're more on the % payback, ensuring it's over 100%... Where as I'm more on the EV, ensuring it's over 100% (quite similarly).
I came up with an EV of only like -$1800, while the major would provide back about $3300 (after taxes). Sounds like a play to me =).
I think we're speaking the same language, but different dialects. You're more on the % payback, ensuring it's over 100%... Where as I'm more on the EV, ensuring it's over 100% (quite similarly).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
June 9th, 2016 at 5:17:54 AM
permalink
With 8 to 10 hours a day you must be spending a lot playing at casino. Yes luck come from a strange way especially when your on the brink of giving up. But their is also and most of the time the unlucky moment were you come to a casino with high spirit of winning big but slowly your being demolish because of unlucky of winning.
