Jim123
Jim123
Joined: Dec 7, 2009
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December 17th, 2015 at 9:08:06 AM permalink
I have been reading the forums for a while and mike deconstructs several machine to figure out the return of the game. My question is what sample size do you need to get a close enough guestimate of the return of a slot machine.

Thanks

James
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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December 17th, 2015 at 9:12:04 AM permalink
With what level of confidence?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Jim123
Jim123
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December 17th, 2015 at 9:37:42 AM permalink
90-95%
DRich
DRich
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December 17th, 2015 at 12:14:02 PM permalink
I would be fascinated to see the Wizard, or someone else, deconstruct a modern video slot that has bonus rounds and/or different free spin scenarios. I would imagine it would take way too much effort to approximate any of the newer popular slots (ie. Willy Wonka, Family Guy, Flintstones, Big Bang Theory, Walking Dead, etc).
Order from chaos
Jim123
Jim123
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December 17th, 2015 at 4:40:59 PM permalink
I'm thinking more on the lines of a three coin blazing 7 machine. Just a simple machine. How much of a sample would you need to make a reasonable guesstimate of the actual odds.
TomG
TomG
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December 17th, 2015 at 4:55:56 PM permalink
Zero.

The average hold based on denomination and geographic location will give you a reasonable enough guesstimate.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy 
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December 17th, 2015 at 5:17:55 PM permalink
Quote: Jim123

I'm thinking more on the lines of a three coin blazing 7 machine. Just a simple machine. How much of a sample would you need to make a reasonable guesstimate of the actual odds.


This one is tough. The problem with a single-line three reel game is, each position on a reel does not necessarily have an equal chance of appearing on the line. The positions on either side of the main jackpot symbol on each reel probably appears much more often than the jackpot symbol itself, so there could be more "oooh, so close - the next one ought to hit it" moments.

This is just a gut feeling, mind you, but for a Blazing 7s, you probably need at least 5000 spins to have a reasonable idea of how often each symbol lands - and this assumes that each reel acts independently of the others (i.e. the probabilities on the third reel do not depend on where the first and/or second reels land). I know there used to be something in Nevada's gaming regulations that required this, but I can't seem to find it at the moment.
Mission146
Mission146
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December 17th, 2015 at 6:20:40 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Zero.

The average hold based on denomination and geographic location will give you a reasonable enough guesstimate.



No, it won't.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Jim123
Jim123
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December 17th, 2015 at 9:37:23 PM permalink
So enlighten us what sample size would it take to approximate the payback percentage of a three coin one line blazing 7 machine or a double diamond.
tringlomane
tringlomane
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December 17th, 2015 at 11:59:31 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

No, it won't.



It probably will within +/- 3% return in many cases. Unfortunately, I agree with others, most modern games, you're better off getting a par sheet copy.

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