brettecantwell
brettecantwell
Joined: Jul 19, 2015
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December 1st, 2015 at 1:23:21 PM permalink
This may be a real simple question, a local place offers 2x match play one day a week. At my card level i can pay 10 dollars and get a 20 dollars worth of machine play.

If i were to play this 20$ into a machine with a 5% edge then my expected value would be 19$. Can someone explain to me how to figure out how much of an edge i have over the casino when wagering only 10$ of my own and expected value is 19$ when playing these match plays? I looked around and couldn't find a good answer. Would i be playing at a 90% edge since EV is my full 10$ plus another 90% on top of that?

Sorry if i missed something simple (which i think i have)

Thanks for any help.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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December 1st, 2015 at 1:54:30 PM permalink
Hi Brett,

You've almost all but answered your own question!

It depends on what game you're playing your own $10 on. If you play $10 on the same 5% house edge machine, then the EV's are easy to calculate:

EV(own $10) = (10)*(-.05) = -$0.50... so you can expect to lose 50 cents on your own $10 play.

EV(match $20) = (20)*(-.05) = -$1.00... so you can expect to MAKE $19 from the FREE $20 match play you were given.

Thus, in this scenario, you can expect to lose 50 cents for ever $19 you make, giving you an expected profit of $18.50 every time you do this play.

If you, overall, take $10, and expect to leave with $28.50 (18.50 profit), then you have an expected return of 285%.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
brettecantwell
brettecantwell
Joined: Jul 19, 2015
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December 1st, 2015 at 2:34:36 PM permalink
Thanks. But I think I may have not clarified it the best way. The total isn't 30. I give the players club a 10 and they put 20 dollar play on my card. So I'm only really getting 10 free play dollars. So I think the 285% return would turn to 185% then correct?
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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December 1st, 2015 at 3:03:11 PM permalink
Ignore the $10 and MP and all that nonsense.

You have to cycle through $20 on the machine. Machine has a 5% house edge (95% return). After cycling through $20, you should end up losing $1 (end with $19).

How much did you start with? $10.

What did you end up with? $19.

What's your profit? $9.

You put how much in action? $20.

$9 / $20 = 0.45 = 45% edge.
GWAE
GWAE
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December 1st, 2015 at 3:27:41 PM permalink
Are you sure the games are at 5%? I thought machines on Oklahoma were class 2. If that is the case then you are giving up at least 10%. Still makes it profitable but not as much.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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December 1st, 2015 at 4:32:29 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Are you sure the games are at 5%? I thought machines on Oklahoma were class 2. If that is the case then you are giving up at least 10%. Still makes it profitable but not as much.



Oklahoma can have either class II or class III. I'm not that convinced class II pays back much worse than class III in slots. Assuming a 95% return for either scenario for slots its too high. 90% is better.
brettecantwell
brettecantwell
Joined: Jul 19, 2015
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December 1st, 2015 at 4:51:03 PM permalink
I just used 95% as an example. The machines i plan to use the match play with are video poker. Yes Oklahoma does have alot of class 2 slots but truth be told there only account for a part of the total machines on the floor at places Ive been. Most casinos locally that i have been two are made up of maybe 40-50% of class 2 bingo games. The rest are class 3 including the video poker.

My regular place i go has a bank of 6 "full pay" VP with 9/6 JOB, almost FPDW at 99.96% payable and the best bet in the casino is 10/6 DDB. The only drawback is they dont allow free play or award any points on these 6 VP machines. There is also another bank of VP with lower pay tables with 7/5 JOB, as well as a bank of STP and Ult X but not full pay tables. Most of those games are in the 96-97% payback range, but they do award points and you can use slot play on them as well. The pay tables on those machines are not great but the best bet for the free play, and still better than a slot machine.
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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December 1st, 2015 at 5:46:11 PM permalink
Quote: RS

You put how much in action? $20.

$9 / $20 = 0.45 = 45% edge.



Disagree. You give the casino $10, they give you a ticket with an expected value of $19.

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