Kentry
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October 14th, 2015 at 1:13:21 AM permalink
I was playing 88 Fortunes and I put in a $20. I hit about 4 spins at .88 when almost a full screen of the gold ship symbol showed up for $36. The woman next to me congratulated me. I smiled and cashed out.

I had roughly $52. I put $20 from the $36 back into the machine and....That $20 was gone in less than 4 minutes! I got off the machine saying to the woman "Thank God I quickly wised up." She congratulated me on knowing when to quit. I still had my original $20 plus $12 from the $36 win, so I still had $32. Gives and takes away, huh? LOL.
Wizardofnothing
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October 14th, 2015 at 8:41:26 AM permalink
Um.......... I think welcome to the forum would be an understatement
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Kentry
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October 14th, 2015 at 3:06:29 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

Um.......... I think welcome to the forum would be an understatement



Is that a good thing or a bad thing?
Wizardofnothing
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October 14th, 2015 at 3:11:22 PM permalink
Are you being serious in creating a thread on this?
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Kentry
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October 14th, 2015 at 4:11:16 PM permalink
I am being serious. I happened to win a good amount, only for the game to start taking it right back. I'm sure that happens often.
Zcore13
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October 14th, 2015 at 4:15:25 PM permalink
Quote: Kentry

I was playing 88 Fortunes and I put in a $20. I hit about 4 spins at .88 when almost a full screen of the gold ship symbol showed up for $36. The woman next to me congratulated me. I smiled and cashed out.

I had roughly $52. I put $20 from the $36 back into the machine and....That $20 was gone in less than 4 minutes! I got off the machine saying to the woman "Thank God I quickly wised up." She congratulated me on knowing when to quit. I still had my original $20 plus $12 from the $36 win, so I still had $32. Gives and takes away, huh? LOL.



Congratulations on your $12 win. Well done.



ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Wizardofnothing
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October 14th, 2015 at 4:33:22 PM permalink
Lol
[qq=Zcore13]Congratulations on your $12 win. Well done.



ZCore13

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Kentry
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October 14th, 2015 at 5:19:07 PM permalink
Hey, a $12 win beats being down $12. ;)
Wizardofnothing
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October 14th, 2015 at 5:20:53 PM permalink
But why did you make a thread about it is the only thing I would like to know
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Kentry
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October 14th, 2015 at 5:46:31 PM permalink
I'm new here and haven't learned the ropes yet. ;) Maybe it would have made more sense if I had made it more of a Community thread such as, "Games that have paid you well and then suddenly went cold?"
Wizardofnothing
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October 14th, 2015 at 5:50:57 PM permalink
If that was an honest thread then my apologies just wasn't sure - most people do not make threads about 12 dollar wins
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Kentry
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October 14th, 2015 at 6:06:40 PM permalink
No problem, Wizard :D
Kentry
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October 19th, 2015 at 4:42:50 AM permalink
The other day, a couple were playing 88 Fortunes at 88 cents and the bowl was completely full and never closed to give them the Progressive, even after they spun like 100 times. That was beyond disgusting and I felt so bad for them.
Wizardofnothing
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October 19th, 2015 at 8:48:23 AM permalink
Thank you for the awesome contribution and continued support to this forum
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tongni
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October 19th, 2015 at 9:37:38 AM permalink
Quote: Kentry

The other day, a couple were playing 88 Fortunes at 88 cents and the bowl was completely full and never closed to give them the Progressive, even after they spun like 100 times. That was beyond disgusting and I felt so bad for them.



I will say that 88 fortunes is probably the most high variance slot I've ever seen in my life. I was playing something right next to it one day and saw a woman betting $15 a spin hit for $30k, hit the bonus feature and instantly mashed the 88x multiplier button x 4 spins. The max bet on the machine at this particular property was $250/spin, so it's possible to hit for half a million or more I'm sure.

edit: sorry, was thinking of lucky 88
Kentry
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October 19th, 2015 at 10:58:31 AM permalink
$250 a spin! Oh my God! That's roughly half of my paycheck! :O
Wizardofnothing
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October 19th, 2015 at 5:13:59 PM permalink
Then you should go for two spins
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Kentry
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October 19th, 2015 at 6:31:17 PM permalink
I would never risk my paycheck in two spins. The most I have ever spent on a single spin was $5.
hands5
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November 23rd, 2015 at 10:27:31 AM permalink
I have played 88 Fortunes at the Eureka Casino in Mesquite. I was fortunate enough to hit the GRAND (paid $16k+)...Bet ews $1.76 a spin. Have played it several times lately (At Eureka in Mesquite and the Plaza, Fremont and Binions in Las Vegas). Hit the major ($800+) each session at Binions. Not so well at Fremont.

I have been lucky! No doubt about that!
Kentry
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November 29th, 2015 at 5:02:27 PM permalink
Quote: Kentry

$250 a spin! Oh my God! That's roughly half of my paycheck! :O



Funny as in ironic in how I was shocked that anyone would gamble $250 a spin and I recently gambled away roughly that amount. -.-
beachbumbabs
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November 29th, 2015 at 6:06:50 PM permalink
Quote: Kentry

Funny as in ironic in how I was shocked that anyone would gamble $250 a spin and I recently gambled away roughly that amount. -.-



Once again you're missing the point. You're gambling away money you need for basic expenses. Who knows what that other person is doing; if they have it to lose and have budgeted for it, that's their business. You've made your business public, and told us you've used money intended for other purposes for gambling (and losing), causing problems between you and your mother, causing you to wander around broke most of the time, depending on scraping enough money together to claim a $5 bonus once a week.

I expect this to be the last time I say much to you, because you're not listening to anybody, whether you're real or a troll. If you're real, you have a REAL problem, and you should get help. That's all.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
prozema
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December 3rd, 2017 at 6:40:22 AM permalink
I really hesitated to bring this debacle of a thread back to the top but in an attempt not to duplicate topics, I'm going to.

I have seen a number of write ups online that say this game has a return to player of 95.xx%. I have to imagine that this is configurable by the casino to some extent and 95 is the maximum RTP.

Does anyone know where to find what the range of the RTP is?
Wizard
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December 3rd, 2017 at 8:23:33 AM permalink
Quote: prozema

Does anyone know where to find what the range of the RTP is?



Like most slots, it probably has various settings from 85% to 97%.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
prozema
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December 3rd, 2017 at 9:46:16 AM permalink
Thanks Wiz!

Is there any general assumptions one can make on the allocation of that return between free spin bonus games, progressives, and the base game?
Mission146
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December 3rd, 2017 at 9:56:28 AM permalink
Quote: prozema

Thanks Wiz!

Is there any general assumptions one can make on the allocation of that return between free spin bonus games, progressives, and the base game?



If you don't mind me answering:

A. The contribution to a player from a Progressive(s) can vary pretty wildly. There are several factors, such as:

-Meter Move
-Progressive Start Amount Relative to Probability of Hitting
-Probability of Hitting
-Can the Progressive be won w/o Max Bet? (Assuming no change to probability AND not a must-hit, a lower bet would be better and the Progressive, as a result, would constitute a greater percentage of the return.)

B. Free Spins can also vary dramatically based on their average value and probability of hitting. Free Games often make up as much as 40% of a game's return, but it is also sometimes less than that. You can even look at the same game. Not a slot, but:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/cleopatra-keno/

As you can see, the Bonus Return on Cleopatra Keno can run from under 25%, to as high as 47.4%, just based on how many spots you're playing.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
prozema
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December 3rd, 2017 at 10:06:02 AM permalink
I appreciate you responding. Thank you!

Sounds like you can't paint with a broad brush.
prozema
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December 11th, 2017 at 5:05:51 AM permalink
I was doing some reading about this game. Specifically, there were a couple of articles by John Robison (who claims to be a slot expert).

John suggested (in a nutshell) that the coin picking feature that triggers progressives is biased twords mini and minor jackpots. If I recall correctly he used the word deceptive because it was not stated in the game rules, and because unchosen coins were not revealed at the end of the game to show what could have been.

What seems even more deceptive to me is the rice bowl graphic that slowly fills during play. There are dozens of warnings on several forums that are less reputable than this one talking about chasing the rice bowl and what a bad idea that is. It seems like everyone is remembering the old accumulator slots and are hoping that feature has made a come back in the rice bowl.

I decided to test the rice bowl theory on a free online version of this game which I'm sure is set differently than the casino floor version. Funny enough, after a dozen or so trials I'm ahead once the rice bowl is full!

The asterisk on this is that the primary driver of the additional virtual credits is not the winning of progressives, but wins from free spins.

When the bowl was full to the end of the coin picking feature I got:

2 big losses. Over 100x bet size
1 small loss. Less than 100x bet size
2 basically break evens +/- 20 bet size
5 small wins. Less than 100x bet size
2 big wins. Over 100x bet size

In my opinion, this is inconclusive.

1 time the rice bowl closed when it was not full, the rest of the time the rice bowl was full.

The other thing I thought was interesting is there is a guy who just hovers around these games in one local Casino. No idea if he is sharp or dull.

Also, i rarely see full rice bowls just sitting there in my local casinos.

What do you guys think? Is this worthy of more investigation? Has anyone already done any leg work on this?

Thanks
RS
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December 11th, 2017 at 5:18:11 AM permalink
I've played them a bit. I don't have records for it specifically, though. It seems like the coin bonus isn't good enough to make it +EV, even if the mini/minor are really high. I've hit the major (the one that's $800-$1k usually) 2 or 3 times, I've never hit the grand ($10k+). If they're +EV, I can't imagine they are by much. I don't play them anymore, unless I want to put some slot play on my card, which is rare.
prozema
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December 11th, 2017 at 5:27:38 AM permalink
Ps. The guys who vulture UX are not the ones hovering.
SM777
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December 11th, 2017 at 6:57:30 AM permalink
I don't mind 88 Fortunes, it has been decent to me.
mamat
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December 12th, 2017 at 7:05:48 AM permalink
Quote: prozema

I really hesitated to bring this debacle of a thread back to the top but in an attempt not to duplicate topics, I'm going to.

I have seen a number of write ups online that say this game has a return to player of 95.xx%. I have to imagine that this is configurable by the casino to some extent and 95 is the maximum RTP.

Does anyone know where to find what the range of the RTP is?

Quote: Wizard

Like most slots, it probably has various settings from 85% to 97%.

I've seen 80-98%. Harrahs is notorious for low settings. I saw a bank of 5K progressives get installed at 84.52% & 84.53%. Ugly.

A few years ago (not at Harrahs), I was tempted to play for fun on some new slots ... until I saw the 81-82% setting.
vegas
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December 12th, 2017 at 7:58:36 AM permalink
I just got back from Orleans and watched a girl (while I played VP) play the 88 game. She refused to quit because the pot was full. It took 4 hours AFTER the pot was full until she finally hit the progressive. She played from 5 pm until it hit at 9:10 pm. she had many free game spins but I am not sure how she did overall. When she needed a bathroom break she called for an attendant to watch the machine for her. My point is just because the pot looks full it might not hit for hours.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
Mikey75
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December 12th, 2017 at 8:21:00 AM permalink
I've observed the same thing. Also it will hit the bonus with the pot empty at times. How full the pot is seems to have no relevance to when the bonus hits.
rxwine
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December 12th, 2017 at 9:14:33 AM permalink
Quote: prozema


John suggested (in a nutshell) that the coin picking feature that triggers progressives is biased twords mini and minor jackpots.



My unofficial opinion is that is true in a lot of new games with multi-progressives.

The first two usually labeled mini and minor hit all day.

The third progressive might hit once in awhile.

Anything beyond that is apparently just for appearances or perhaps it is just recording the minutes players waste trying to hit it. This is often true even if it is only $50 higher than the next lowest progressive.
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AxelWolf
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December 12th, 2017 at 8:41:25 PM permalink
Quote: vegas

I just got back from Orleans and watched a girl (while I played VP) play the 88 game. She refused to quit because the pot was full. It took 4 hours AFTER the pot was full until she finally hit the progressive. She played from 5 pm until it hit at 9:10 pm. she had many free game spins but I am not sure how she did overall. When she needed a bathroom break she called for an attendant to watch the machine for her. My point is just because the pot looks full it might not hit for hours.

How much was she betting? What progressive are we talking about?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
prozema
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December 12th, 2017 at 8:55:11 PM permalink
Quote: mamat

... until I saw the 81-82% setting.



I want to see this setting.
rsactuary
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December 14th, 2017 at 7:48:24 AM permalink
Quote: prozema

John suggested (in a nutshell) that the coin picking feature that triggers progressives is biased towards mini and minor jackpots.



Here's how I think the bonus game works on these types of games:

During normal play when you get the symbol that adds rice or a coin or whatever to the bowl, the computer is picking a random number. If you have more than one symbol in a game, it picks one random number for each symbol. So for most of these games, you're looking at up to 3 random numbers generated per spin.

I believe that the random number generator picks a number between 1 and x, where x may vary by bet size and coin denomination. For example, if you're playing penny slots with max bet of 300 coins, you may be picking numbers between 1 and 50000. the various progressive jackpots are assigned to various numbers within that span of 1 to 50000. For example, the mini progressive may be assigned to 250, 500, 750, 1000 etc all the way to 50000. Meaning you have a 1 in 250 chance of hitting that jackpot for each random number generated. The minor jackpot may be assigned 1001, 2001, 3001 etc.. .meaning you have a 1 in 1000 chance of hitting that.. and so on up to the largest jackpot would be 1 in 50000.

If you are playing only 150 credits.. perhaps you are dealing with a 1 to 100000 range. Not sure about this.

By doing it this way, the slot manufacturer can easily calculate an expected value for the big jackpots.

The reason I think this is how it's done is because of some interesting wording on the slot pay tables for 88 fortunes. It says... "when a "symbol that adds to the bowl" appears, the player may be awarded an available jackpot. if more than one jackpot is available, then the jackpot awarded is determined by the gold coin feature."

So I interpret this as meaning that if you have only one wild on the screen, and you get the gold coin feature, the outcome is already determined. And that's why they don't show you the other coins.. it's forced on you. And that would hold with the commentary that the feature is biased towards the lower level progressives. So the only time the gold coin feature would matter, is if you had two or more symbols on the screen AND both or two of three random numbers hit or more of the progressives. That would be an extremely rare event.

So in a nutshell, the gold coin feature in almost all situations is designed to give you a predetermined progressive.. there is very little likelihood that there are options to win one or another of those jackpots.
CrownMGD
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December 15th, 2017 at 3:14:39 PM permalink
I played a game like this before or maybe it is the same game. It is called Duo Fu Duo Cai and the Major Progressive started at 800 and was around 5k when I started. It took many bonus rounds and a few hours before I hit it just over 6k for a net profit of 900 and some change. I didn't find the game very fun and I figure the bonus round is pre set before you start picking the coins.
vegas
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December 15th, 2017 at 3:29:05 PM permalink
Axel

It is expensive to play this slot. I think minimum bet is .88 cents. She was playing that sometimes and sometimes she played the next bet up but did not see any max bets. The progressives were two at less than 60 dollars and the rest higher. The top progressives were quite high but I can't really remember how much. She did have some BIG wins on the free spins and even the non bonus spins.

My wife thought this girl knew what she was doing and the staff all knew her. To play for 4 hours is quite an accomplishment. Wife said she won 300 once and did not seem to be putting money into the machine.

Hard to beat a slot but who knows?
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
CrownMGD
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December 15th, 2017 at 3:37:47 PM permalink
Quote: vegas

It is expensive to play this slot. I think minimum bet is .88 cents. She was playing that sometimes and sometimes she played the next bet up but did not see any max bets. The progressives were two at less than 60 dollars and the rest higher. The top progressives were quite high but I can't really remember how much. She did have some BIG wins on the free spins and even the non bonus spins.

My wife thought this girl knew what she was doing and the staff all knew her. To play for 4 hours is quite an accomplishment. Wife said she won 300 once and did not seem to be putting money into the machine.

Hard to beat a slot but who knows?



I don't know if the game I was playing is the same as the 88 game. It looks almost the same. Same Coin picking bonus rounds I think but I can't remember the minimum bet. I remeber I was playing two machines because I didn't want someone to fall into the game. I was betting a dollar a spin or so but it wasn't long before I was betting max bet for some time and I would go back to half max bet. I was told that you have better chances the more you bet but I don't exactly believe that. I just wanted to see what would happen betting other amounts. It felt like I hit more bonus rounds when I bet more. I know that I was very close to losing more than the jackpot. I never seen that jackpot go from 800 to 5000 before so I thought I was onto something. Maybe I was but I know they changed the meter the next day when I went back to check on that game. I don't understand why they would change it. I don't think anyone can beat that game even when the jackpot is 6x it is still scary.
vegas
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December 15th, 2017 at 5:32:59 PM permalink
Now that you mention it there are more than one version of this game. One has a minimum bet less than 88 cents. It might be 32 or 64 cents.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
prozema
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December 16th, 2017 at 5:13:43 AM permalink
I can confirm there are multiple games that have the same features in terms of the rice bowl and triggering free spins. Several of the names are Chinese, so that is a challenge.

Most of the games are 5 reel video reels. Bets range from 8 cents to $8.80. There are two things to consider when choosing the bet level. The top row of betting buttons drive the number of gold symbols on the machine. For 8 cents you get 1 gold symbol. For 88 cents you get 5 gold symbols. The gold symbols raise the pays in the base game for that particular symbol. For example 5 non gold boats pays 10 but 5 gold boats pays 100. (not sure on the exact numbers but hopefully this gives you the gist of it). Anyway, the second row of betting buttons are bet multiple buttons. 1x to 10x.

If I recall the rules correctly, for all the 5 reel games, the number of gold symbols also make it possible to win larger progressives... 1 gold (8 cents) = no progressives, 2 gold (18 cents I think) = mini only ($10-15 typically) on up to 5 gold (88 cents) = grand (starts at $10k), major, minor, mini.

On this version of the game, I tried playing 88 cents (5 gold symbols / 1x bet multiple). I was up or even on 6 or 8 consecutive machines and that's when I started thinking I was on to something... Not so sure now since I ran into a couple of rice bowls that just would not close.

Speaking of closing the rice bowl, on this game I found 10 rice bowl levels that are 5 wild symbols apart from one another. If you start with the emptiest rice bowl you are 50 wilds away from the fullest rice bowl. After the rice bowl is full, the coin picking feature comes. It seems like it is typically between 80 and 100 additional wilds collected, but I've seen it be far less or far more. Also, I have occasionally seen the rice bowl close with less than a full rice bowl.

One other notable thing about the 5 reel game... In free spin mode all the lower paying symbols like A, K, Q, and J go away.

I wonder how I could apply a value to each gold symbol bought... Almost like playing the lottery less the top jackpot but with a lower priced ticket.

There is also a 3 reel version of the game that works essentially the same way but there are not any A, K, Q, or J symbols on the reels. In the 3 reel game, the minimum bet level is 88 cents and all symbols are gold. The max bet is still $8.80 per spin.

Depending on the version of the games with this functionality, the rice bowl graphic progression may or may not be the same. For 88 fortunates and du fo whatever they are the same. For the tall deluxe machine, they are different.
prozema
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December 25th, 2017 at 7:37:41 PM permalink
I might be the only person who is still looking at this game... I'm calling it rice pot. I know there are several different games, but the rice pot seems to behave the same. Here are some new observations under more, but still a limited number of trials:

- There is definitely a random element to triggering the coin picking bonus.
- I've seen it trigger more times before the pot if full, but when the pot is full, I'm finding it closes on average around 70-80 collected symbols.
- When choosing the coins and it hits the mini jackpot about 90% of the time. and the minor the rest of the time... I'm assuming Major and Grand will hit sometime, but quite infrequently.
- The symbols you are trying to collect (fu bats?) you get about 1 every 4 spins of so.
- Mini starts at $10; minor at $25; major at $800; Grand at $10K

So here is what I'm thinking, to keep it simple evaluate mini only conditions...

If I take 75 collected symbols X 4 spins per symbol, I get 300 spins.... It's probably better than this because of the free spins feature.
If I play for $0.18 per spin so only the mini is in play, that's $54 coin in.
Assuming 80% payback on the base game and the free spins, I'm going to lose $10.80 waiting for that rice pot to close.
If the mini is $10.80, then I'm in the neighborhood of break even.
If the mini is at $15, I have a 7.8% advantage.

Am I doing this right? Probably not... Criticism is welcome.

Next thought... Does anyone know what happens in the free spin mode when I play for $0.18 (one gold symbol) in the main game? Do all the symbols go gold in free spin mode?

Oh... Merry Christmas!
vegas
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December 26th, 2017 at 5:38:14 AM permalink
To get 75 collected spins might close the pot on average but that is only after the pot is already full. You also have to count the spins and symbols it takes to get the pot full. My calculation is it takes many symbols to collect before the pot is even full. So when someone wins sat the mini and starts over.....how many total symbols does it take? That will take a lot more money.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
prozema
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December 26th, 2017 at 6:01:38 AM permalink
Quote: vegas

To get 75 collected spins might close the pot on average but that is only after the pot is already full. You also have to count the spins and symbols it takes to get the pot full. My calculation is it takes many symbols to collect before the pot is even full. So when someone wins sat the mini and starts over.....how many total symbols does it take? That will take a lot more money.



I thought I had covered that in a prior post but maybe not. Actually it's worth revisiting because I noticed something new with filling the bowl...

Initially I had counted 5 Fu bats between each level of coins in the rice bowl and 10 levels until full. After that, a random close based on collection of incremental Fu bats, but averaging somewhere around 75 more for 125 total Fu bats to close.

When I noticed the pot adding coin level off the normal 5 Fu bat schedule, the pot closed before it was completely full.

At first I theorized that there was a non visible virtual wheel where every time a Fu bat was collected some spaces were populated with a progressive jackpot winner space... The more Fu bats, the greater the chance of landing on a winner. Unfortunately that would not explain why the 5 Fu bat count per coin level in the bowl changes and the rice pot closes early. Maybe I lost count? Dunno...

Anyway, take all this with a grain of salt. I'm not a pro at analysis of slot vulturing. Actually, UX aside... This is my first crack at it. It could be a total wiff.

I think it would be helpful to calculate the value of the meter, but since these machines are linked im at a bit of a loss how to calculate that. I do get the feeling that making up $.80 from meter rise would not take much.

As a result, I think the play as I described is +EV, but in a very low rolling capacity.... Or, I'm dead wrong.

I posted this because the edge is so small and the denomination so low, I could not imagine this doing harm to anyone's capacity to make a mortgage payment and because selfishly I want to know if I'm thinking about slot analysis correctly.
prozema
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December 26th, 2017 at 8:26:21 PM permalink
My playing at a lower bet level idea was not a good idea. Fewer coins flew into the rice bowl... sometimes that silly bowl just won't close. You guys tried to tell me...
MaxPen
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December 26th, 2017 at 8:41:24 PM permalink
Do you know why they call it 88 Fortunes?

That is how many Fortunes you are going to blow if you keep playing it.
prozema
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December 26th, 2017 at 8:42:23 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

Do you know why they call it 88 Fortunes?



I'll bite. Do tell...
CAD2
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January 4th, 2018 at 2:10:35 PM permalink
Quote: Kentry

The other day, a couple were playing 88 Fortunes at 88 cents and the bowl was completely full and never closed to give them the Progressive, even after they spun like 100 times. That was beyond disgusting and I felt so bad for them.



If you read the Help screen, the verbiage has something to the effect saying the number of coins in bowl has no effect.

The coins are for entertainment value.
CAD2
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January 4th, 2018 at 2:38:03 PM permalink
Quote: RS

I've played them a bit. I don't have records for it specifically, though. It seems like the coin bonus isn't good enough to make it +EV, even if the mini/minor are really high. I've hit the major (the one that's $800-$1k usually) 2 or 3 times, I've never hit the grand ($10k+). If they're +EV, I can't imagine they are by much. I don't play them anymore, unless I want to put some slot play on my card, which is rare.



It's a game slot hustlers or bonus hustlers (aka AP who play slots) would chase. The term they use is "it's a play".

As with any uncapped progressive jackpot, there will be an amount that causes the game to be +EV (and the variance notwithstanding). The rule is despite being +EV, you still need to take the jackpot down (aka you may lose money chasing a +EV situation).

Most of these bonus hustlers will gather empirical evidence[A] and then work backwards. They also make assumptions about the house edge. Then it becomes a math problem.

Cheers

[A] If these are class 3 machines, then the machine has no memory, each spin is random, etc. So the bonus hustlers use the Law of Large Numbers, e.g. collect data of when the progressive hits -- usually, 30 data points or obversations is enough data to use to risk chasing after the jackpot. Separately, with the 30 data points, they have a good idea of the house edge and variance (low watermark or biggest drop as well as swings).

I chased bonus slots as a hobby in the past and most bonus hustlers will not invest $$$ to get the 30+ observations. One reason is because it's a slot machine and the manufacturer can change the chip without anyone noticing. Additionally, that each casino can choose different settings.

I used to use this simple rule: Observe 100 "independent" Jackpots and the top 3 to 5 values will give you an idea of +EV. By independent, I don't mean looking at the same jackpot more than once per day. If the jackpot didn't hit today, then record the next day's value. If the jackpot still has not hit, just record one data point per day. I learned in life that the market clears at the market price. There are a lot of smart ploppies and smart bonus hustlers.
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