Jackpot symbols aligned on non-pay rows
The slot I'm posting about is Double Diamond .25 cent, 3 reel single line progressive.
I've observed approximately 420 spins on this machine and the 3 double diamonds, which is the jackpot combination, have come up either above or below the payline at least 4 times.
This would seem a high frequency, or is it about right? Additionally I've observed any Double Diamond on the payline 41 times. Can the jackpot cycle be derived from this data?
Above and below are meaningless.Quote: kingdomofsalildHello. This is my first post in these forums. Thanks for reading.
The slot I'm posting about is Double Diamond .25 cent, 3 reel single line progressive.
I've observed approximately 420 spins on this machine and the 3 double diamonds, which is the jackpot combination, have come up either above or below the payline at least 4 times.
This would seem a high frequency, or is it about right? Additionally I've observed any Double Diamond on the payline 41 times. Can the jackpot cycle be derived from this data?
Yes but you need to track each reel separately.
I disagree with the normal views on how many spins you need to be fairly sure.
I thought so. But how is it that combination would come up so frequently on the non pays. Just curious.
I have a smaller number of spins tracked independently on each reel. I'll have to go back and get more. Whats your number of spins?
Quote: kingdomofsalildAbove and below are meaningless.
I thought so. But how is it that combination would come up so frequently on the non pays. Just curious.
I have a smaller number of spins tracked independently on each reel. I'll have to go back and get more. Whats your number of spins?
The reels are weighted in the game toward this. Seeing the jackpot symbol above and below the reel is much more common than on the payline on 3 reel slots. It has the nice effect to make people want to keep playing.
Blanks of single bars come up more often on the line they set the JP SYMB above and below more common stops.Quote: kingdomofsalildAbove and below are meaningless.
I thought so. But how is it that combination would come up so frequently on the non pays. Just curious.
I have a smaller number of spins tracked independently on each reel. I'll have to go back and get more. Whats your number of spins?
It would depend on ow i the JP was and ow familiar I was with tat particular type of machine(even ten it can be way off) I want 5k personally. Most will say that's far to many. If it looks really out of whack or unusually high then going with less is fine. Is this something that gets up often? If so I would spend the extra time and get as accurate as you can.
Is this really high or something? They used to have a $1 DD on boulder hwy that was playable often. Over all results were good.
Quote: AxelWolf
Is this really high or something? They used to have a $1 DD on boulder hwy that was playable often. Over all results were good.
Probably not. Don't really know what a high number is on this machine. Just want to be able to watch for high jackpots.
Quote: AxelWolfBlanks of single bars come up more often on the line they set the JP SYMB above and below more common stops.
It would depend on ow i the JP was and ow familiar I was with tat particular type of machine(even ten it can be way off) I want 5k personally. Most will say that's far to many. If it looks really out of whack or unusually high then going with less is fine. Is this something that gets up often? If so I would spend the extra time and get as accurate as you can.
Is this really high or something? They used to have a $1 DD on boulder hwy that was playable often. Over all results were good.
Axel,
Either the "h" is sticking on your keyboard or you've gone Cockney...
So THAT's how he does it... :-)Quote: beachbumbabsAxel,
the "h" is sticking on your keyboard
Quote: kingdomofsalildAbove and below are meaningless.
I thought so. But how is it that combination would come up so frequently on the non pays. Just curious.
I have a smaller number of spins tracked independently on each reel. I'll have to go back and get more. Whats your number of spins?
Note that the reels are weighted. So the jackpot symbol appearing above the payline may be more likely than it appearing on the payline.
However, the reels ARE independent. So if you get a jackpot symbol on the first 2 reels, the probability of it appearing on the 3rd reel is the same as it would be if you had missed the first 2 reels.
The independence allows you to determine the jackpot frequency by determining how likely it is to get the jackpot symbol on the payline of each reel, and then multiplying the 3 probabilities together. But, how often the symbol appears above or below the payline is not useful information. For each reel, you need to count the number of times it appears on the payline, divided by the total number of spins. You need a lot of data.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceNote that the reels are weighted. So the jackpot symbol appearing above the payline may be more likely than it appearing on the payline.
However, the reels ARE independent. So if you get a jackpot symbol on the first 2 reels, the probability of it appearing on the 3rd reel is the same as it would be if you had missed the first 2 reels.
The independence allows you to determine the jackpot frequency by determining how likely it is to get the jackpot symbol on the payline of each reel, and then multiplying the 3 probabilities together. But, how often the symbol appears above or below the payline is not useful information. For each reel, you need to count the number of times it appears on the payline, divided by the total number of spins. You need a lot of data.
Ok, got it. Not to sound like I know anything because I'm new at this but I did some mapping of another machine and used the same procedure and equation, its good to get confirmation however that I'm on the right track. The numbers I'm getting on this machine are not looking good but I need a lot more data, as you say. There has to be some point where it goes positive, correct?
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/02/140228-gambling-brain-win-slot-machines/
I have a number of observations now, and I believe it is time to move on to another machine but wanted to get other opinions.
The observations are as follows.
Jackpot advances $.01 per $2.25 coin in (3 max bet spins)
Current jackpot.... $842.22
Number of spins.... 1185
Number of jackpot symbols observed on payline.... 34 - 25 - 36
The machine is a $0.25, 3 coin max, 3 reel.
If I've done the math correctly assuming a tight return of 85% the jackpot would have to be many multiples of the current amount to be positive, correct? At a lose return of 95% the jackpot would still need to be more than double the current value, correct? And its not likely to become positive before hitting because the meter moves too slow.
Would someone work through the numbers and confirm my suspicion.
If the game pays 85% on everything but the jackpot (~86.96% at a $800 jackpot), then you need the jackpot to be $6117.57 based on your data to break even. Barring another progressive being dumped into that machine, it's nearly impossible.
Quote: tringlomaneYou're suspicions are pretty much spot on. It's unlikely this game gets positive.
If the game pays 85% on everything but the jackpot (~86.96% at a $800 jackpot), then you need the jackpot to be $6117.57 based on your data to break even. Barring another progressive being dumped into that machine, it's nearly impossible.
Ok, good, $6117 is the exact figure I get for the 85% return.
Putting 1 cycle of coin in adds only a measly $181 to the jackpot. (Maybe checking the meter with a few spins is a quicker and cheaper way to rule out a machine)
Thanks very much!
Quote: BTLWIThis is [partly] why you see so many above and below JP symbols -
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/02/140228-gambling-brain-win-slot-machines/
I thought there were gaming laws against making the "near-miss" much more likely to appear than it should be if the reels were fully random (non-weighted)? I thought I remember reading about this, but I suppose it could be in a small gaming jurisdiction somewhere.
Quote: AcesAndEights
I thought there were gaming laws against making the "near-miss" much more likely to appear than it should be if the reels were fully random (non-weighted)? I thought I remember reading about this, but I suppose it could be in a small gaming jurisdiction somewhere.
It used to be in the really old versions of GLI according to one of the members here, CrystalMath, maybe? Now it's just generally stated in GLI-11. I have yet to read a state law that forces a maximum "near miss" weighting of a reel.
Nobody has fun with pathetic meters. They should be outlawed.Quote: kingdomofsalild(Maybe checking the meter with a few spins is a quicker and cheaper way to rule out a machine)
Thanks very much!
Quote: onenickelmiracleNobody has fun with pathetic meters. They should be outlawed.
Yeah I agree. My local has a pathetic VP bar that offers crap games like 6/5 DDB with a 0.1% meter at best. It might be 0.05%. The royal rarely gets over $1100. Some suckers still play it though.
Quote: AcesAndEightsI thought there were gaming laws against making the "near-miss" much more likely to appear than it should be if the reels were fully random (non-weighted)?
I remember somebody claiming once that the difference in weights of adjacent stops couldn't be more than 6:1, but have never seen this in any Nevada gaming regulations.
Of course, the more likely a reel is to have its jackpot symbol "off by one", the (much) more likely it is for two or three reels to do this, and players might get suspicious. For example, if each reel is 10 times more likely to have its jackpot symbol appear in the position above the pay line, then, for every jackpot, there are 30 near misses with 2 symbols on the pay line, 300 with 1 on the pay line, and 1000 where all three jackpot symbols are on the row above the pay line. Note that the last one is not a good thing for the casino if it's a multiple pay-line slot.
Quote: tringlomaneYeah I agree. My local has a pathetic VP bar that offers crap games like 6/5 DDB with a 0.1% meter at best. It might be 0.05%. The royal rarely gets over $1100. Some suckers still play it though.
I found a 4%(.03 for every .75 coin in) meter yesterday on a bank of linked Sizzling 7's, based on what I've seen so far this is good?... went back later to get more spin data and the jackpot had been hit. But going on limited data it was probably well under any positive strike point. I'll watch but wait for the jackpot to increase a bit before putting more coin in.
In fact first EVER jackpot! Took my wife to check the jackpot today, it was very high so said to her we have to play. We took 3 of 4 machines and no one else played the 4th machine. It took less than an hour, my wife had just emptied her machine of the $100 I gave her and was reluctant to put more in, and truth be told so was I. As luck would have it I didn't have to put more in. We were both watching the middle machine when, not 1, not 2, but 3 Sizzling 7's appeared! Cleared about $150 of a $450 jackpot.
Quote: kingdomofsalildFIRST AP JACKPOT !!!
In fact first EVER jackpot! Took my wife to check the jackpot today, it was very high so said to her we have to play. We took 3 of 4 machines and no one else played the 4th machine. It took less than an hour, my wife had just emptied her machine of the $100 I gave her and was reluctant to put more in, and truth be told so was I. As luck would have it I didn't have to put more in. We were both watching the middle machine when, not 1, not 2, but 3 Sizzling 7's appeared! Cleared about $150 of a $450 jackpot.
Casino games are like foods: most table games and video poker games necessarily provide their nutrition facts (albeit indirectly), whereas slots are like unwrapped fried twinkies. Saying that a progressive slot is +EV with no knowledge of its underlying math is like saying a fried twinkie is healthy without knowing its nutrition facts. How can you claim that a $200 increase in the jackpot made the game +EV without knowing (a) what the game returns at reset and (b) the probability of spinning the jackpot-winning combination?
Quote: tringlomaneIt used to be in the really old versions of GLI according to one of the members here, CrystalMath, maybe? Now it's just generally stated in GLI-11. I have yet to read a state law that forces a maximum "near miss" weighting of a reel.
I recall commenting about this before. GLI used to limit the ratio to 9:1. I never found any NV regulations concerning this.
Quote: JBCasino games are like foods: most table games and video poker games necessarily provide their nutrition facts (albeit indirectly), whereas slots are like unwrapped fried twinkies. Saying that a progressive slot is +EV with no knowledge of its underlying math is like saying a fried twinkie is healthy without knowing its nutrition facts. How can you claim that a $200 increase in the jackpot made the game +EV without knowing (a) what the game returns at reset and (b) the probability of spinning the jackpot-winning combination?
Yeah I'm not convinced this was a +EV play at the moment either. It would have to be a pretty small jackpot "cycle" for that to be the case AND the jackpot would have to return at the minimum 6% to 7% at the base value (and likely more), which is questionable, I would think.
But googling around, I have found info that some sizzling 7s may hit 1 in 4096. And I think mickeycrimm said this too. If true...$250/$0.75/4096 = 0.08138 = 8.138% for the jackpot at reset. A jackpot of $450 would add 6.51% in this case. Likely still -EV at this point.
Quote: tringlomaneYeah I'm not convinced this was a +EV play at the moment either. It would have to be a pretty small jackpot "cycle" for that to be the case AND the jackpot would have to return at the minimum 6% to 7% at the base value (and likely more), which is questionable, I would think.
But googling around, I have found info that some sizzling 7s may hit 1 in 4096. And I think mickeycrimm said this too. If true...$250/$0.75/4096 = 0.08138 = 8.138% for the jackpot at reset. A jackpot of $450 would add 6.51% in this case. Likely still -EV at this point.
I was using the 4096 figure because the observations I have been getting have been very close to that number being the cycle, and continues to be the case after tonights observations as well. The big question is what is the base return. If the base return is 85% then sure it was probably still negative but possibly positive at about 87 or 88%. If you'll remember I abandoned another machine because its cycle was too large and meter too slow. This one appears to be the opposite. I felt it was reasonable to have a go at it, maybe next time let it go slightly higher before striking.
Quote: kingdomofsalildI was using the 4096 figure because the observations I have been getting have been very close to that number being the cycle, and continues to be the case after tonights observations as well. The big question is what is the base return. If the base return is 85% then sure it was probably still negative but possibly positive at about 87 or 88%. If you'll remember I abandoned another machine because its cycle was too large and meter too slow. This one appears to be the opposite. I felt it was reasonable to have a go at it, maybe next time let it go slightly higher before striking.
It's definitely a machine to keep an eye on I think, but assuming the machine returns 85% without the jackpot is probably optimistic. Some of this depends on the state you live in. If you are in a state like MD, for example, you KNOW that the overall return of the machine (including the average progressive jackpot) is at least an 87% overall return.
