Mystery Progressives
Quote: WizardThanks!
My WoO page is done. Please check it out. Please PM me any typos.
I don't think you define target point on this page and that is a big weakness. Is the target point the point at which the next spin is a break even bet? Is the target point a point at which, the progressive, if played to completion, is a break even sequence of bets. Same question for the tables.
Quote: WizardAbout the minimum return, I thought it was 75% in Nevada.
I appreciate the info! Not sure whether I heard or read that it was 86%, but that may explain why profits have been noticeably lower on certain banks. All the more reason that I prefer the poker and keno base games to the reels when playing Mystery Progressives! Fortunately, I haven't lost my shirt! Time to update the spreadsheets ...again!
Quote: AxelWolfNot all mystery jackpots are must hit by.
This is true. I have seen open-ended Mystery Progressives that do not have a "must-hit-by" value, at least not displayed or alluded to on or around the machine(s). These are still triggered by either a bet amount, a win amount, or an amount of time rather than a particular event on the reels or other base game that they employ.
Unfortunately, I am unfamiliar with Bovada's games, so I have no input for you, AxelWolf.
When a progressive is truly open-ended, you would need to know (1) the return of the base game or that of the game as a whole, including the meter, (2) the expected cycle length of the meter (this is usually the reciprocal of the probability of hitting the meter on one spin, but is sometimes a function of the bet size), (3) the reset value of the meter.
Also, beware of the term "Mystery Progressive," as it has become quite popular and is used loosely. For example, there are banks of Fort Knox machines that tote the Mystery Progressive signage. I cannot recall whether these are open-ended mysteries or if they require a certain combination on the reels and/or during a bonus round. All I know for sure is that I have not found one in Northern Nevada to be a "must-hit-by" Mystery Progressive.
For the WMS machines, are the contributions to the "rise on win" meter actually deducted from the each win, (thereby lowering the amount of all the non-progressive payouts), or is it taken from coin-in regardless of which event causes the meter rise? I suspect it is taken from all coins-in. It allows the operator to harvest a higher profit since the jackpot payouts rise slower compared to "all coins-in meter-rise" games.
Quote: camaplI appreciate the info! Not sure whether I heard or read that it was 86%, but that may explain why profits have been noticeably lower on certain banks. All the more reason that I prefer the poker and keno base games to the reels when playing Mystery Progressives! Fortunately, I haven't lost my shirt! Time to update the spreadsheets ...again!
86% is closer to what you would expect a newer penny slot to pay. But anything that pays back > 75% is legal in Nevada, and it's one of the lowest minimums in the country. The only thing is that is lower are casinos not subject to minimum payback regulation.
86% is illegal in a few states even, such as Kansas state-run casinos, New York state-run casinos, Delaware, Maryland, and Maine. Most established gaming states are 80% minimum, and New Jersey is 83% minimum.
Quote: AyecarumbaOn the "meter rise based on wins" machines, do "wins" for less than coin-in contribute to the meter rise (e.g., you put in $2.25, pull the handle, and generate a combination that pays out $1)?
For the WMS machines, are the contributions to the "rise on win" meter actually deducted from the each win, (thereby lowering the amount of all the non-progressive payouts), or is it taken from coin-in regardless of which event causes the meter rise? I suspect it is taken from all coins-in. It allows the operator to harvest a higher profit since the jackpot payouts rise slower compared to "all coins-in meter-rise" games.
Yes it stores previous wins. I've won a major on a five cent hit before.
The rise isn't deducted from the win. The meter rise on the coin in machines is often 2 dollars per penny, while it is usually 1.67 win per penny on the coin out versions. This is because it takes about two dollars coin in to win 1.67 when you account for the house edge.
Quote: tringlomane86% is closer to what you would expect a newer penny slot to pay. But anything that pays back > 75% is legal in Nevada, and it's one of the lowest minimums in the country. The only thing is that is lower are casinos not subject to minimum payback regulation.
86% is illegal in a few states even, such as Kansas state-run casinos, New York state-run casinos, Delaware, Maryland, and Maine. Most established gaming states are 80% minimum, and New Jersey is 83% minimum.
There's just one state-run casino in Kansas, isn't there? How many states have mandated maximums? I know IL has one. And MN. I assume there must be more.
Quote: rdw4potusThere's just one state-run casino in Kansas, isn't there? How many states have mandated maximums? I know IL has one. And MN. I assume there must be more.
A handful of states cap at 100%. My home state of Missouri does not, but there hasn't been a 100%+ game for about 4 years now I think. I played full-pay All American (100.72%) a couple of times in Boonville, MO I think when I was in college. It existed there for quarters until mid 2007...tough game
States that cap at 100% (I may be missing some):
Arizona
California (I think)
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Louisiana
Mississippi
North Dakota
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Fwiw, I don't think any >100% video poker machines really exist outside of Nevada.
And KS currently has 3 casinos technically owned by the state lottery, but really run by companies like Penn Gaming, etc. Legislation allows for 4 total.
http://www.kslottery.com/aboutus/expandedlottery.aspx
Quote: onenickelmiracleFor the longest time WV(class II VLTs) had max payouts of 95% and maximum $5 bets. Now they have much higher limits and I have seen some Ainsworth $1 machines have $50 max bets, but am not yet sure if the cap has been changed.
I can say that I perused the gambling regs for WV as little as three months ago (don't have time to do so today), and as of that time, it was still 95%. I believe OH may be 99%, but don't quote me on that...I'll look it up Monday.
Ohio can't be 99% because there is a 99.54% game in Cleveland that has a progressive that puts it up over 100% at times.Quote: Mission146I can say that I perused the gambling regs for WV as little as three months ago (don't have time to do so today), and as of that time, it was still 95%. I believe OH may be 99%, but don't quote me on that...I'll look it up Monday.
Quote: teddysOhio can't be 99% because there is a 99.54% game in Cleveland that has a progressive that puts it up over 100% at times.
Yeah, I have looked at Ohio law a few times. The minimum is 85% and there is no stated maximum. Not like they are going to put in 10/6 DDB, 10/7 DB, NSUD w/STP, etc. anytime soon. I'm shocked Cleveland has a 9/6 JoB progressive to be honest.
Quote: teddysOhio can't be 99% because there is a 99.54% game in Cleveland that has a progressive that puts it up over 100% at times.
My mistake, I thought that I had looked that up before, but it must have been a different State. West Virginia is 95% still, but I don't think a Progressive pushing it up over 100% makes any difference, I'm pretty sure it just goes by Base Pays. I say that because there have been multiple times when a Progressive has caused a slot machine or video keno game at Wheeling Island Hotel Casino & Racetrack to be +ER. There are no video poker Progressives that I have ever seen there, but I must admit that I've not really looked, I hate video poker.
Quote: Mission146My mistake, I thought that I had looked that up before, but it must have been a different State. West Virginia is 95% still, but I don't think a Progressive pushing it up over 100% makes any difference, I'm pretty sure it just goes by Base Pays. I say that because there have been multiple times when a Progressive has caused a slot machine or video keno game at Wheeling Island Hotel Casino & Racetrack to be +ER. There are no video poker Progressives that I have ever seen there, but I must admit that I've not really looked, I hate video poker.
Yes, I agree. Maximum paybacks are for the long term when progressives effectively make the return over 100%, it is only for the short term. Otherwise, there would be no need for progressives if they never provided a lure for players.
Quote: WizardRegarding whether the value of the progressive counts toward the official return of the game, I'm not sure, but would bet that it does. The slot makers are very guarded about their PAR sheets for progressive games. I will say that when I design a slot I include the average value of the progressive in the total return. For example, if a client asks for a 93% game, with a 2% progressive, then I make all the fixed wins worth 91%.
At the end of your Lobstermania page on WoO, you mention the following: The Harrigan and Dixon paper mentioned they were given par sheets for seven versions of Lobstermania. The available returns were 85.0%, 87.5%, 90.0%, 92.5%, 94.0%, 95.0%, and 96.2%.
So, if these truly are the only versions of this game and I see one attached to Mystery Progessives, would it be reasonable to assume that I could calculate a set of play points by using each of the returns above without adjusting for the return from the progressive meters themselves? In other words, can a Lobstermania game only be set to one of the returns above, or are there custom settings available?
Quote: camaplAt the end of your Lobstermania page on WoO, you mention the following: The Harrigan and Dixon paper mentioned they were given par sheets for seven versions of Lobstermania. The available returns were 85.0%, 87.5%, 90.0%, 92.5%, 94.0%, 95.0%, and 96.2%.
So, if these truly are the only versions of this game and I see one attached to Mystery Progessives, would it be reasonable to assume that I could calculate a set of play points by using each of the returns above without adjusting for the return from the progressive meters themselves? In other words, can a Lobstermania game only be set to one of the returns above, or are there custom settings available?
Lobstermania is a non-progressive game, so the payouts listed should be the only payouts available. For mystery progressives on penny slots, there will be a return for the base game...and then the average return for the progressive, and it will likely return 85%-87% + progressive on average for the Vegas strip. Lobstermania isnt a good game for this.
Quote: tringlomaneLobstermania isnt a good game for this.
Thank you tringlomane!
That may be true, depending on the other choices available to play for a particular progressive. I only use Lobstermania as an example of a game for which I know the base returns.
The point is knowing that a particular game has a minimum setting of 85% changes the OPN versus assuming a jurisdictional minimum of 75%. Not to mention the calculation is simplified if we do not need to adjust out the baseline return from the meter(s).
Quote: camaplThank you tringlomane!
That may be true, depending on the other choices available to play for a particular progressive. I only use Lobstermania as an example of a game for which I know the base returns.
The point is knowing that a particular game has a minimum setting of 85% changes the OPN versus assuming a jurisdictional minimum of 75%. Not to mention the calculation is simplified if we do not need to adjust out the baseline return from the meter(s).
For Nevada, you can effectively ignore the jurisdictional minimum for slots at any major casino. The competition factor is way too high and most slot designers don't even design returns < 80%. Here is a list of some popular video slots and their return ranges. Expect Strip casinos to be on the lower end of these ranges.
http://www.slotmachinesforum.com/showthread.php?2820-Slot-Machine-Payout-Percentages-Here-They-Are
Quote: tringlomaneFor Nevada, you can effectively ignore the jurisdictional minimum for slots at any major casino. The competition factor is way too high and most slot designers don't even design returns < 80%. Here is a list of some popular video slots and their return ranges. Expect Strip casinos to be on the lower end of these ranges.
http://www.slotmachinesforum.com/showthread.php?2820-Slot-Machine-Payout-Percentages-Here-They-Are
I appreciate the link and will utilize it! I'm sure I've read, and perhaps had direct responses, alluding to the +80% idea. I guess I am a just skeptic at heart! Or pig-headed - no offense to pigs! Or both...! Then again, I was using 86%! Anyway, thank you for the information!
Quote: WizardI agree with Frank's formula, which is: break-even jackpot (target point) = (must hit point)/[1+(meter rise)/(house edge)], where:
must hit point = Maximum possible jackpot.
meter rise = Ratio of meter rise to amount BET. Please note that with the WMS games the meter rise is based on win, not bet.
house edge = Ratio of expected player loss to amount bet, not including the value of the progressive.
I have been running numbers with this formula and the one found here. They are both pretty close, so that's not a problem. However, when I run some more numbers, I don't think the term "break-even" is accurate.
Lets look at a machine I scoped out today.
Must Hit By: $500
Meter Rise: $0.0145
House Edge: 0.13
The first formula says the break even point is $449.82. The Second one says $454.4. Lets assume the Jackpot is at $450. I figured that on average the jackpot will hit at $475, halfway between the current jackpot and the maximum. The amount required to be waged to hit the average jackpot is $1724.14 ($25/meter rise.) Average amount lost to house is $224.14 (Amount wagered * House Edge.) Average profit is then $224.14. This is not break even. The so called "break even" point is merely the point where you would break even if the jackpot happened to hit at the maximum.
According to my calculations, you would still make money on average even if you started playing when the jackpot was at $420 or a little less. Am I wrong?
Quote: wicksHowever, when I run some more numbers, I don't think the term "break-even" is accurate.
...
According to my calculations, you would still make money on average even if you started playing when the jackpot was at $420 or a little less. Am I wrong?
Not wrong at all... (added:) just not optimal.
With Must-Hit-By Mystery Progressives, the optimal play number, or target point, is NOT equal to the breakeven point, even though it is derived by optimizing the same metric as that for say a Royal Flush progressive. With the open ended nature of video poker progressives, the equations are such that the cost to hit the progressive equals the breakeven point equals the target point. However, with the closed-ended and uniform nature of Mystery Progressives the this is not the case.
If you begin play at (target point) = (must hit point)/[1+(meter rise)/(house edge), then you will find that the expected return for this play is 100% + (house edge) + (meter rise). For an slot with a 87% return for fixed payouts and a 2% meter that hits by $1,000, your expected return would be 115% as long as you start play when the meter is at $866.67. The higher the house edge, the longer you will need to wait to play but the higher the return on the play. If the house edge is high enough, then playing sooner is potentially justifiable if a lower return is acceptable. Keep in mind that you may need such a large buffer to cover an unknown variance and the fact that your house edge is only an estimate!
Based on this formula from WoO:
t = m × (h + r) / (h + 2r)
t = Target Point
m = Max jackpot
r = Rise of meter rate
h = House edge of game (taking into consideration the average value of the progressive)
Do you take the amount the progressive goes up in terms of dollars/cents per dollar won? If I play a dollar a spin, and won $1.00, and the progressive went up 1 cent, does that mean it's a 1% rise? If that's the case and assuming a 10% HE on a $500 jackpot, is the target point the amount it is a 100% play (at $458.34)? How do I find out when it is a 5% edge? Can I just multiply the target point by 1.05? Do I need to play max bet when it reaches my strike point (like a progressive VP machine) or can I just feed the machine the lowest amount possible?
How do I determine bankroll requirements for such a game?
Given the following overall returns from last year:
1¢ Slot Machines
The Strip - 88.39%
Downtown - 89.06%
Boulder Strip - 90.88%
N. Las Vegas - 90.82%
What do you guys think is a good educated guess for overall return on the common 1 cent denom mystery progs for each area? Surely less than the numbers above, right? I'm thinking as a rule of thumb we might want to deduct 1% from the number above. Or 2%?
1.) Larger Jackpots = More Variance = Lower Percentage Payout
-Excluding free games, the (up to) $500 Mystery Progressive is typically the highest pay on one of those machines. Given that this is the case, the casino doesn't have to worry about paying out thousands of dollars at once, and there's no paperwork to deal with. That seems like a good argument for a decent base pay, if you include the Progressive increases on each win.
2.) These WMS Mystery Progressives are Often Not Licensed Titles
-Licensing is the one thing that a player really pays for, whether it be Star Wars, Scrabble, Monopoly, Sex & The City or others, and the vast majority of the Mystery Progressive games I have seen are not licensed. That's one aspect that might not be working against the return.
3.) Progressives Make Absolutely No Difference to the House
-This is the case whether it is a Progressive that increases on wins only, or whether it is a fixed increase Progressive. The fact of the matter is that a certain percentage of every bet, on average, feeds the Progressive and everything other than that is the House Edge. If the base pays are 88% and an average of 1% of every bet goes to the Progressive, then the overall pay is 89%, and the House Edge is 11%.
-The beauty of this is that it doesn't matter to the casino if someone plays at an advantage or not. The House Edge on every bet is going to be 11%, whether a player is playing at an overall return of 89% (reset Progressives) or whether is playing at a return of 109%.
DRich, thanks for the scoop.
the lowest return in PA is 85% btw.
It is a must hit by $1000
There are 2 minor jackpots that are must hit by $100
The major jackpot is random and increases by $0.01 for every $5 into the machine.
Both minors are random and increase by $0.01 for every $4 in
Today the Major was at $930 and 1 minor was at $78 and the other was at $64
Did I miss an opportunity or is it still a little off.
If it is a go, what bankroll would be required to take this down?
Quote: GWAEI passed up a must hit today and I am not sure if I should have. Upon sitting here thinking about it I think I made a mistake.
the lowest return in PA is 85% btw.
It is a must hit by $1000
There are 2 minor jackpots that are must hit by $100
The major jackpot is random and increases by $0.01 for every $5 into the machine.
Both minors are random and increase by $0.01 for every $4 in
Today the Major was at $930 and 1 minor was at $78 and the other was at $64
Did I miss an opportunity or is it still a little off.
If it is a go, what bankroll would be required to take this down?
What do they reset at?
This does not look very good at all. The big one is guaranteed to hit after $35k in coin-in and the small ones after $8800 and $14,400.
Do you know where these reset? Often times, the $1000 must-hit-bys reset at $900, which would make it not very far advanced. The $100 often reset at $50. The reset numbers will tell you how much the jackpots contribute to the 85% (ie, you actually lose on the main game at a rate that's more than 85%, because some of that 85% comes from the reset value). Of course, it's also possible that the return is more than 85%.
$8800 coin-in to win $100 doesn't sound very hot. Simple calculations just with a calculator, you can expect losing $880 at a 90% return for your money. Derp derp.Quote: GWAEI passed up a must hit today and I am not sure if I should have. Upon sitting here thinking about it I think I made a mistake.
the lowest return in PA is 85% btw.
It is a must hit by $1000
There are 2 minor jackpots that are must hit by $100
The major jackpot is random and increases by $0.01 for every $5 into the machine.
Both minors are random and increase by $0.01 for every $4 in
Today the Major was at $930 and 1 minor was at $78 and the other was at $64
Did I miss an opportunity or is it still a little off.
If it is a go, what bankroll would be required to take this down?
Quote: Mission146Garbage, I'm afraid. I can't think of a single machine where those numbers are any good.
Hi mission, glad to see ya back on.
Well I need to stop doing math while driving, it just makes me look silly. In my head I only needed $3500 coin in and not 35k.
Quote: onenickelmiracle$8800 coin-in to win $100 doesn't sound very hot. Simple calculations just with a calculator, you can expect losing $880 at a 90% return for your money. Derp derp.
I would have preferred a dee da dee
Quote: GWAEHi mission, glad to see ya back on.
Well I need to stop doing math while driving, it just makes me look silly. In my head I only needed $3500 coin in and not 35k.
Thanks, but I never left!
Just do it in your head, here's a, "Base of Ten," trick.
If it was $10.00 to advance the meter $0.01, then to move it $70, you'd have $70 * 1000 = $70,000 coin in. Because it takes $5, not $10, you just take the amount and divide it by 2 which yields $35,000. If it was $4 to move it $0.01, then you'd multiply by .4...but the easiest way to do that is to multiply by four and drop a zero:
$70,000 * 4 = $280,000----Lose a Zero----$28,000 coin-in.
EDIT: People are often impressed at my ability to do equations in my head, not to brag, but I even impressed the Wizard at Hash House a Go-Go, most of my mental hocus pocus (maybe 90%) is, "Base of Ten," based.
