Would you fold Pocket Aces?

So this got carried away on a different thread, so I decided to post it. Here is the recap:

Quote: P90

The problem with big jackpots is what you are going to do with $300 million. Is it really any different from what you're going to do with $50 million?
If not, and it's almost certainly not, then the Expected Utility or EU is not there. And if you're going to buy a lot of tickets, we're talking 1,000s at least, the lost utility is very significant. So you're not getting the proper odds.

This concept often comes in play in tournaments. There are situations where you would call all-in with 83-off, and situations where you would fold AA preflop, because the worth of your chips is so non-linear.

Quote: YoDiceRoll11

Who is really going to fold AA?

Quote: Triplell

Watch this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHiEkikhDGU

Quote: YoDiceRoll11

Yeah, So looking back it was a good call. But the math everytime says AA is your best shot pre flop. Please explain it isn't. (I'm not a poker pro)

Quote: P90

It's simple. Aces are a favorite - but in a 4-way pot, only a 64% favorite.
Suppose now it's the bubble, you have a good stack on the button, but not the big stack. UTG is in the red and shoves all in, the big stack of your table raises, a medium stack calls, you are next, and the big blind's a little short.

The amount to call is also really nasty - you have 70,000, and it's 45,000 to call. Raising won't even make a difference: UTG's in, your 25k into a 175k pot isn't scaring the big stack, the medium stack is committed, and then the big blind might jump in, lowering your chances to 55%. Against random cards, which UTG probably has, for big stack and BB it's 50/50, the medium stack is clearly serious.
With aces, there's almost no flop that will make you fold, and if you do fold post-flop, you might end up the next guy shoving any two under the gun. If you do win, your gains still fall short of a triple-up.

So, are you going to risk the whole tournament on a 50%-60% shot?
Maybe you are, but let's see what can happen if you fold now. Whatever happens, you'll still have a comfortable stack for the final table. If the big stack wins - he clears out two players, gets you both into the money, and you aren't worse off by much, he had the lead on you as it is. If medium stack or BB wins - the stacks equalize and there is no big stack anymore, you are upgraded to one of the big stacks. If UTG wins, it's about the same, only with a side pot.

Folding just brings you better value than aces.
So you grind your teeth, do it, and some decades later sit by the fire telling your grandchildren how you folded pocket rockets on the button preflop.

Quote: YoDiceRoll11

Hmmm. That makes a lot of sense given the advance situation you describe. Thank you for the detail.

Quote: Triplell

If it's the WSOP main event, then yeah, I MIGHT...fold... might. But I would never fold them in any other tournament. I play for 1st, not to double my money...

The story behind the video, is this was a pokerstars event cash game (I think it was called the big game), and the winner at the end of the season won some sort of all exclusive poker tour package(valued at roughly $500,000). They give you $100,000 in chips, and you are able to keep anything you win over the 100k. This guy ended up by the end with $230,000, which put him in the lead with only a few contestants left.

On the season finale, the guy won a monster hand and was up something like $280k, so this guy didn't get the package. I think the contest was kind of BS, as the last players to go obviously had the advantage. It would have been more fair if no one was told who the leader was...

Quote: duckmankilla

Put it this way. You have just lost 99% of your chips and are down to something like 100 chips with blinds of 2k/4k. You are in the money already and you can move up if you simply survive. 2 players move all-in in front of you and you have pocket aces. The difference between 300 and 100 chips is insignificant as you are going to need a ton of double ups to even be considered in contention, so in this scenario there is no reason to risk losing your last 100 chips and the correct play is to fold and simply hope that the shorter stack of the two all-in players loses the pot.

It's the only viable way to increase your winnings as you are just trying to maximize your money at that point.

I would agree, that in this scenario, it's obviously a smart fold. However, I'm not sure of how many people would call an all-in preflop...when there is a guy with 1/20th of the big blind left, and you are already in the money...

Perhaps he also was dealth pocket aces....and the other guy kings...but unless they too are hurting to be eliminated soon, they are likely just going to small raise their big hand, rather then just shove it all in...

We live to play games where we have less than 1% advantage. Sure you may lose sometimes with PA, but the odds are in your favor, even in a 4 way draw. Even taking bubble numbers into consideration, unless it is the Main Event, you have to play the odds.

Just my opinion, but I'll take that situation and play it day in and day out.

Quote: Triplell

I would agree, that in this scenario, it's obviously a smart fold. However, I'm not sure of how many people would call an all-in preflop...when there is a guy with 1/20th of the big blind left, and you are already in the money...

Perhaps he also was dealth pocket aces....and the other guy kings...but unless they too are hurting to be eliminated soon, they are likely just going to small raise their big hand, rather then just shove it all in...

In the scenario dmk desciribed, I would shove my whole stack...well, move my single black chip, all in. I won't have a better opportunity to improve, and it is better to go down guns blazing than to just get blinded off. Besides, the shorter all in stack may still lose, and you get the best of both. Moving up in the money, and the 200+ chip bump.

Quote: Ayecarumba

In the scenario dmk desciribed, I would shove my whole stack...well, move my single black chip, all in. I won't have a better opportunity to improve, and it is better to go down guns blazing than to just get blinded off. Besides, the shorter all in stack may still lose, and you get the best of both. Moving up in the money, and the 200+ chip bump.

I'd rather flame out on the pocket aces. If you're not going to play them then what hand would you play?

Quote: s2dbaker

I'd rather flame out on the pocket aces. If you're not going to play them then what hand would you play?

This is kinda what I'm thinking...but I have no poker pedigree.

The only way I would fold out is if I was trying to make the money by sitting on my chips
and waiting for some other aggressive players to knock each other out.
But I doubt I would fold without seeing if I hit trips on the flop at least.

I wish I had seen this analysis before I played my first ever casino tournament!
As I recall, it was a $60 freeze out event at Orleans, around 2005. First poker I ever played in a casino. My first few hands I got good cards to call preflop, but missed each time and folded. I don't recall how the next hand went down, but somehow I ended up going to the showdown with absolute garbage. I think I had called a pre-flop raise, and the bettor checked every street, not sure why. I remember being red faced embarrassed as I showed my hand. From there, I got junk and folded the next few hands.
I got a quality hand, called a raise, hit the flop, and made a small play. It ended with the other player all-in and I won easily. Pretty soon the TD comes around and drops a $5 casino chip on the table. I was so green I didn't even realize I got $5 every time you knocked someone out of the event. Before the break had come, I had taken out 2 more people. Everyone at the table was so sure I was a loose calling station, because of that first hand I was forced to show, but I was really only playing quality hands. As we go to break, one of the players on the table stops by and says "That was some of the sickest false advertising I have seen." Again, I was so noobie I had no idea what he was talking about. It took about 10 minutes to sink in. OH, he thought my first play was on purpose. Hardly.
I make it to the final 2 tables, and have about the 4th highest stack between both tables (just a guess, as I was too stupid to know I should know this info)
People kept standing after every hand and looking around. I had no idea why (they were looking at everyone else's stacks. DOH)

We are one person from the money (I was not aware of this fact either). I had never played a real casino tournament, so I was overwhelmed with protocol......
I am the BB, the player on my left has less than the BB left. He starts to put it in, and then changes his mind and folds.
2 more folds, and a player raises. I am too stupid to look at his stack, which would have showed he and I were the 2 biggest stacks on our table.
Button calls, SB folds, and I look down to see KK.
I don't recall if I raised or called, but three of us saw the flop. A-K-x
I bet small, other stack raises, and button folds. I call
This hand ends with me going all -in and the other stack calling me. He has me covered by a few chips. My KKK, loses to his AAA, and I am the last out to miss the money. The guy on my left looks down at his less than a SB, and realizes he just pocketed $187 for making the money. I find this fact out, and feel like puking on the spot. This was really a hard way to learn a bunch of lessons.

I played so well to get to the final 2 tables, and then pissed it all away with a series of stupid errors. I now realize there is NO cards I should have played in that situation, not with the next BB not even able to post a full blind, and only 1 player left to make the money. If the same thing happened again at the money line, and a decent size stack makes a raise, I fold AA, just to make sure I make the money. If I am already in the money, then of course I would play the hand.

Quote: Triplell

If it's the WSOP main event, then yeah, I MIGHT...fold... might. But I would never fold them in any other tournament. I play for 1st, not to double my money...

Doesn't have to be WSOP ME, there is a lot of tourneys with significant prizes. Actually, WSOP, particularly smaller events, is where you seriously want the first place, for the bracelet and all the self-marketing opportunity that comes with it. Short of WPT, anywhere else your first place is just money.

Of course, if the stakes are small, then anything less than the first place doesn't even pay off for your time. But if the stakes are high enough, you need to consider the value of each play in terms of money, in terms of how much a double-up now can help you get a bigger prize, how many chances to double up you have left.

It's not likely to be your best shot at doubling up either. You have good hole cards, but nothing else, no fold equity, no postflop play. 65%-85% isn't that big a deal. I've been in situations where my odds were better than 90%, since I could comfortably force anything short of a good set off the hand. J10 on a scared table can give better odds than AA here, and since you're so close to the money, that hand separating the losers from the winners is coming anytime this round.

Quote: Triplell

I would agree, that in this scenario, it's obviously a smart fold. However, I'm not sure of how many people would call an all-in preflop...when there is a guy with 1/20th of the big blind left, and you are already in the money...

Actually, in duckmankilla's scenario, I would be shoving without a second thought. Once you're in the money, it's time to loosen up.

Let's look at the prize structure of a major tournament - or let's say WSOP ME itself:
#1-#9 - big money
#10-#18 - $380k-$607k
#19-#45 - $200k-$300k
#46-#99 - $64k-$160k
#100-#162 - $55k
#163-#288 - $40k-$47k
#289-#477 - $27k-$35k
#478-#693 - $19,360-$23,900
#694-#6,865 - $0

You can notice how massively non-linear the payouts are. Going from 90th to 45th gets your money tripled; but 45th to 20th, a measly 50% increase in winnings. And at the tail end - the difference is almost nothing even for massive move-up.
Let's assume you do want the money and you know your current place.

Then the tournament will have a number of fast zones and slow zones. The big step is between #700s and #690 - it's worth 20 grand, and no one wants to be the guy #695. You can go with the flow here and nit up. Or you can try exploiting everyone's concerns and start shoving around, squeezing something bit by bit. But one thing not to do here is calling all-in, because the reward is so small compared to the risk.

There will be a time to shove and call all-ins. From #690 to #470, you just win 7k more. And the massive accomplishment of going from #470 to #100 only doubles your winnings. It's a long straightaway, no speed limit zone for loose play; you want to take shots here and build up your stack. Whether you get through the bubble with 100,000 or 200,000, you'll be putting it all on the line more than once.

Quote: s2dbaker

I'd rather flame out on the pocket aces. If you're not going to play them then what hand would you play?

And that's one thing that gets a lot of players.

Aces are not a hand. Aces on the button in a limped, LAG-raised and called pot with 3-6 pots in your stack is a hand. Perhaps the best preflop hand you can have NLH: there is money to win, great fold equity, and just the right odds if you're called.

But aces alone - they're just two cards.

Quote:

Would you fold Pocket Aces?

Pre-flop? Only under some very unique circunstances, such as those already discussed.

Post-flop? I've done it many times, although I have a feeling I was wrong some of those times.

I guess I might retort my answer.

If two people are already all in, you're banking on the lower stack going out. Depending on tournament rules, if both of you went out, you would either 1. combine the prizes and split. 2. Person with the most chips before the hand gets the higher prize. 3. Hand ranking on the last hand determines the prizes.

I've seen the hand ranking scenario in online games, which I think is kind of a bs way to go about it.

And yes, the whole thing was completely circumstantial. We've all folded pocket aces post flop before. 4 to a flush, 4 to an OE straight. Or just the general feeling that someone caught a better hand. They say a bad poker player loses most of his stack on a single pair. A better poker player loses most of his money when he has nothing...

But that is just what they say...

I'm with P90 on the bubble, in the scenario he described, I wouldn't even have to think twice about folding those Aces. I probably wouldn't risk going all-in on the bubble pre-flop with Pocket Rockets unless I was guaranteed to be heads-up.

P90 also makes the excellent point that Pocket-Rockets are not a hand. It is true that a pair of Aces is a hand, but imagine a Board of:

Qd, Td, 3d, 7d

And both of your Aces are Black. Your opponent goes all-in before the River and you didn't get a solid tell, are you really going to go all-in under those circumstances? I don't think so.

Anyway, I say you play your probabilities when you are trying to get to the bubble, or anytime after you have at least won your money back, really. If you have that kind of stack on the bubble, though, there's no way the Blinds would eat you alive before you make the cash. You're just throwing money away by going all-in with anything except a made hand, which had better be the Nuts or something close.

I think the Bubble is a great time for the Chips Leader or Table Leader to try to improve his stack against players scared of being knocked out, but that's where I draw the line.

It's also not like you're signing your own death warrant by folding. You're preserving guaranteed money and you should still have a reasonably strong stack after you have cashed. As P90 pointed out, you may even piggy-back the Chips Leader right to the cash.

I'm going to go ahead and secure my guaranteed money at that point, after that, we'll go back to gambling.

I guess I approach gambling from a different angle. I play for fun. If I get some $$$ out of it, well that's a bonus. If I have pocket rockets before the flop and I have to go all-in, then I'm all in. At that point, who has the best hand? Me!

I have folded pocket aces pre flop here is why. It was a capped game i couldn't bet enough to get the drunks and bad players to fold. This hand would have seen five callers and most likely would have lost considering they thought we were playing no foldem holdem.

there are very few times that folding aces is +EV.

But the video above is one of them. What you need to understand is this;

The guy free rolled into the game and was given $100k, he got to keep anything over this amount, $99,999 and he walked away empty handed. He had just won a big pot and was up $100,000 ish (excuse my exact number, I cant remember). He was previously below the 100k mark. So it was the most +EV move.

Imagine a situation where 30 people get a seat at the WSOP main event in a sattelite, and there are currently 31 players left, you have an average stack. Another average stack goes all-in under the gun, and the chip leader calls from middle position, you look down at aces, and you have to call your whole stack or fold.

Its an obvious fold here. Calling is never +EV, no matter what cards they have

Sorry for digging this one up, but I like the title.

On-Line Tournament, and you are on the bubble short-stacked with Rockets out-of-position (early/UTG).
OLP usually plays hand-by-hand. The longer you survive the bubble, the better your chances of cashing.
I've actually done this twice at P*, cashing in. If I were in position, I'd have to shove if no calls or 1 call.

Quote: WizardofEngland

there are very few times that folding aces is +EV.

But the video above is one of them. What you need to understand is this;

The guy free rolled into the game and was given $100k, he got to keep anything over this amount, $99,999 and he walked away empty handed. He had just won a big pot and was up $100,000 ish (excuse my exact number, I cant remember). He was previously below the 100k mark. So it was the most +EV move.

Imagine a situation where 30 people get a seat at the WSOP main event in a sattelite, and there are currently 31 players left, you have an average stack. Another average stack goes all-in under the gun, and the chip leader calls from middle position, you look down at aces, and you have to call your whole stack or fold.

Its an obvious fold here. Calling is never +EV, no matter what cards they have

I suppose you're right, but I also think it would depend on what would happen if two people go out on the same hand, meaning, what happens if it skips right from 31 to 29 in one hand.

Let's say we're talking monetary prizes, I'd think that it might be EV to call if you have a slightly larger stack than the other average stack, because it gives you an a bigger opportunity to come out in the top 30, at the expense that you could just be bumping your way out of the pay. I'm not saying it is better EV, I don't actually know, but consider this


You have 2200 chips. The player who went all in had 1800, and the player who called mid position has 7500. If he called, you might assume that everybody is strong, but at least, with AA, you are stronger (or tied if one of them has AA as well). This means that the player who went all in has two strong hands he has to beat for him to take this pot, if you should decide to stay in. When the flop comes out, you'll have no idea what he has, but with your last 400 chips you can then play on or fold to the player with 7500, if you think he somehow got stronger than you, in which case, he's likely to win against the 1800 chipper.

Like I said, I don't know which move is necessarily more EV, but that's because there's a lot to consider. I do know, however, that folding would definetely have far, far less risk/variance.



Although in his situation, the answer is obvious. I would not refute the fact that folding those Aces was the right move, hands down.

I probably would have raised there. My goal, if I have aces pre-flop, is to either A) get everyone to fold or B) get into a heads up situation. Re-raising in poker is a powerful move and quite frankly, probably could have backed Laak off his hand pre-flop. Re-raising him would indicate that you have a premium hand. He basically has a low to mid pair. Best case scenario for Laak in that situation is you have an A with a big kicker where he is basically a coin flip or worse for Laak is if you have a bigger pair than him, which would make him about a 4:1 underdog. I think most people with pocket sixes facing a re-raise would get the heck out of dodge. Calling on the other hand, is not an option here, the last thing you want with pocket Aces is to have a 3 way pot or more.

I have never folded AA pre flop. I have folded after the flop. It happened again just a couple of nights ago in a 3-6 limit game. I have two black aces and three small diamonds flop. No chance for a straight. No set. Zero chance for a flush for me. Only runner-runner could make me a winner.

The only other time I can consider folding AA is when folding my hand might open the door for another player to be knocked out of a tournament increasing my standing at the final table. That is a position I have never been in.

deleted

Well we have seen a video of someone folding them pre flop now lets watch a video of the dealer folding them for you after...

Thank you dealer!

Hey all, hopefuly my first post on this forum won't cause everyone to hate me but I have to be honest, there is a lot of fail in this thread.
It is almost never correct to fold AA preflop, The situation is quite rare.
If anyone cares, I play a lot of poker, and a fair amount of tournaments, and am quite familiar with a lot of this FWIW. I am a recreational player that is a slight winner and by no means an expert, but have studied the game a ton.
Here are my thoughts on this.

Quote: triplell

Watch this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHiEkikhDGU

This is a unique situation where there is value in holding on to his chips, an additional prize package.
The other part of this is that it is pot limit preflop, meaning. This allows the pros to outplay the amateur postflop because he cannot simply shovel all his chips in preflop. Part of the advantage of the pros in this show is their superior post flop play that puts pressur on the amateur.

Quote: P90

It's simple. Aces are a favorite - but in a 4-way pot, only a 64% favorite.
Suppose now it's the bubble, you have a good stack on the button, but not the big stack. UTG is in the red and shoves all in, the big stack of your table raises, a medium stack calls, you are next, and the big blind's a little short.

The amount to call is also really nasty - you have 70,000, and it's 45,000 to call. Raising won't even make a difference: UTG's in, your 25k into a 175k pot isn't scaring the big stack, the medium stack is committed, and then the big blind might jump in, lowering your chances to 55%. Against random cards, which UTG probably has, for big stack and BB it's 50/50, the medium stack is clearly serious.
With aces, there's almost no flop that will make you fold, and if you do fold post-flop, you might end up the next guy shoving any two under the gun. If you do win, your gains still fall short of a triple-up.

So, are you going to risk the whole tournament on a 50%-60% shot?
Maybe you are, but let's see what can happen if you fold now. Whatever happens, you'll still have a comfortable stack for the final table. If the big stack wins - he clears out two players, gets you both into the money, and you aren't worse off by much, he had the lead on you as it is. If medium stack or BB wins - the stacks equalize and there is no big stack anymore, you are upgraded to one of the big stacks. If UTG wins, it's about the same, only with a side pot.

Folding just brings you better value than aces.
So you grind your teeth, do it, and some decades later sit by the fire telling your grandchildren how you folded pocket rockets on the button preflop.

In this situation you should never fold.
First an error or 2:
"With aces, there's almost no flop that will make you fold, and if you do fold post-flop, you might end up the next guy shoving any two under the gun"
This is incorrect as there are no post flop decisions, you are shoving all in preflop.
You also don't need to beat everyone, just the players that have you covered to avoid elimination.
You mention the big stack clears out 2 players, if you win so do you since you cover 2 of the 3 people in the hand.
I don't see stack sizes or blinds listed but it really doesn't matter, you have aces.

"So, are you going to risk the whole tournament on a 50%-60% shot? " yes, yes i am every time. It's really hard to get your money in much better than that. Let's say everyone folds and the last person before you pushes all in and he covers you, he shows you AK and you have QQ, do you call? You will win roughly 56% of the time.

Quote: Triplell

If it's the WSOP main event, then yeah, I MIGHT...fold... might. But I would never fold them in any other tournament. I play for 1st, not to double my money...

This is correct, you may be increasing your chances at a min cash but you are decreasing your chances of winning the tournament.

Quote: duckmankilla

Put it this way. You have just lost 99% of your chips and are down to something like 100 chips with blinds of 2k/4k. You are in the money already and you can move up if you simply survive. 2 players move all-in in front of you and you have pocket aces. The difference between 300 and 100 chips is insignificant as you are going to need a ton of double ups to even be considered in contention, so in this scenario there is no reason to risk losing your last 100 chips and the correct play is to fold and simply hope that the shorter stack of the two all-in players loses the pot.

It's the only viable way to increase your winnings as you are just trying to maximize your money at that point.

This is one of the few times it is correct to fold AA preflop.

Quote: RaleighCraps

I wish I had seen this analysis before I played my first ever casino tournament!

Didn't want to quote your whole post but you did nothing wrong here. Look at it like this, the handful of times this fails will be more than made up for the times this allows you to cash higher in the tournament where the cashes are bigger.

Quote: p90

It's not likely to be your best shot at doubling up either. You have good hole cards, but nothing else, no fold equity, no postflop play. 65%-85% isn't that big a deal. I've been in situations where my odds were better than 90%, since I could comfortably force anything short of a good set off the hand. J10 on a scared table can give better odds than AA here, and since you're so close to the money, that hand separating the losers from the winners is coming anytime this round.

What? 65-85% is definately a big deal. There are few times you will be in a sitatuation where you are an 80% favorite. Also you are comparing apples to oranges, you are talking about post flop play which doesn't exist. from your post above, "You have good hole cards, but nothing else, no fold equity, no postflop play" if you are shoving all in with AA preflop you don't have to worry about postflop play, and why would i want fold equity with AA, i want to be called. In fact the worse your postflop play is the more you should be shoveling your chips in to the middle preflop and avoiding tough decisions.

Quote: p90

And that's one thing that gets a lot of players.

Aces are not a hand. Aces on the button in a limped, LAG-raised and called pot with 3-6 pots in your stack is a hand. Perhaps the best preflop hand you can have NLH: there is money to win, great fold equity, and just the right odds if you're called.
But aces alone - they're just two cards.

Again, apples and oranges, it is not correct to never fold Aces postflop, but it is very rarely correct prelop except in extraordinary circumstances. You ahve the best hand, you want to get as much money in the middle before the flop as possible with this hand, kinda like a card counter ups his bets the better the count gets in his favor, does a high count mean he will always win? No. Is he still correct in betting more? Yes.

Quote: rainman

I have folded pocket aces pre flop here is why. It was a capped game i couldn't bet enough to get the drunks and bad players to fold. This hand would have seen five callers and most likely would have lost considering they thought we were playing no foldem holdem.

Does not compute, so you are trying to get all the bad players to fold when you hold the current best hand? I even want the good players to call here. Yes you will win the pot less often but more often then anyone else and you will show a profit in the long run. Again, see note above about betting more with a good count in BJ.

Quote: 98Clubs

... The longer you survive the bubble, the better your chances of cashing....

But also the less chance of building a stack for the final table and cashing for more money. To put it a different way, I would rather cahs once for 2k, then 5 times for $300.

A satellite is another exception, where the X number of remaining players all win the same prize, or entry to another tournament, then it doesn't matter if you finish 1 is the X number of players left or in position X. If you have an above average stack and a few eliminations away from the cutoff then you should fold everything, including AA, and force the short stacks to eliminate each other.

Play for the win. If you're on the bubble of a tourney to win an event seat I might find a fold there. But otherwise its fistpumps all the way in.

I hope I don't offend anyone, but it's kinda like taking even money on blackjack by taking insurance when the dealer shows an Ace. Long term you are better not taking insurance but there are a few rare cases, such as counting cards where it is the right play.