Carroll/Yaginuma chip dumping

WSOP is investigating possible interesting case of collusion. Carroll had 9-1 chip lead in heads up play. But observers surmised he intentionally lost. Seems strange since the total prize between the two of them from WSOP was a fixed number……. but…… Yaginuma was eligible for an extra $1,000,000 from an outside sponsor. Carroll, had he won, would not have qualified for the million.

The WSOP is not making prize payouts or announcing a winner pending an investigation. Seems like it will be a tough case to prove.

I watched some analysis of this, and there were a lot of unusual plays that make you scratch your head. At the same time, without seeing how they both play previously from hitting the final table, it’s hard to say it was definitely collusion. If I had to put a guess, 85% collusion and 15% innocent.

Quote: SiegfriedRoy

I watched some analysis of this, and there were a lot of unusual plays that make you scratch your head. At the same time, without seeing how they both play previously from hitting the final table, it’s hard to say it was definitely collusion. If I had to put a guess, 85% collusion and 15% innocent.
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How do you arrive at 85%? I'm not seeing that strong of a case. I certainly see some weak predictable play from Carroll at times, but nothing that can't be explained. I also see plenty of hands that don't make sense for chip dumping.

I can see a situation where Carroll is thinking he has a huge chip lead and he's got it in the bag. Perhaps he's thinking he'll just wait for Yaginuma to make a huge mistake. Slowly but surely everything he is doing is going wrong for him, then the frustration sets in and he starts playing even more poorly and predictably bad. There is one particular hand where he seems visibly upset and frustrated. I guess it could be part of the act.


Just looking at the final hand is enough to say "What the hell are you talking about, there isn't no chip dumping or colluding"

If they were colluding why would Yaginuma take that chance calling all in with Q3 off? Carroll who had A 10ss got unlucky, while Yaginuma got lucky. If you look at previous plays at the table where Carroll was shoving (with the few strong hands he had) Yaginuma folds normally. In a collusion dumping scenario Yaginuma would know to fold in that spot, especially with a Queen, 3 off.

So, unless they can find some behind the scenes evidence that they made some kind of deal, or if they can find something in the cameras that indicate some kind of signaling, I don't know how they have a leg to stand on.

I'd say there might be a 35% chance there is collusion and Chip dumping but the main reason for that is the extra amount of money they stand to gain by doing so.

Hey axle, this is just my guess. For me, the strongest tell was when he had pocket AA’s. For a 2 person, why would you bet that much ? It’s just my guess. Nothing scientific.

Quote: SiegfriedRoy

Hey axle, this is just my guess. For me, the strongest tell was when he had pocket AA’s. For a 2 person, why would you bet that much ? It’s just my guess. Nothing scientific.
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He had made some big bets with strong hands previously as well, it might have been one of those things where he is hoping his opponent has a strong enough hand to call thinking in all in bet like that is weak. Perhaps he just wants to get it all in pre-flop and not potentially be outplayed on the Flop, Turner, or River, just in case his opponent Gets Lucky. I don't know, it's really hard to say. He might have just been so discombobulated by that point, he just wasn't thinking and playing correctly.

If it wasn't for that last hand and how that went down, I would be much more convinced of some kind of deal. But then again, I guess if you aren't communicating with each other and don't have any signals set up, your chip dumping isn't going to be anywhere near perfect, as you're still playing poker, but instead of trying to win, you're trying to lose. That would certainly explain some of the play.

Does Joey Ingram still do his thing? That guy usually has a pretty good take on this type of stuff. If anybody finds it, please post it up.

Whatever the case, I wouldn't be surprised either way, for that amount of money, I could certainly see the motivation.

I hate when people refer to pocket aces and “how people would play”… whenever I have pocket aces I play them however the hell I want because I can play them that way. Just the hand alone is NEVER enough for a pro poker player… all of a sudden aces appear and people forget about position, chip stack, etc… relative to when they get 72 … now all the hypothetical fancy play comes out.

I hope they colluded. I hope they get away with it. The company that is putting the extra milli up needs to just accept that they have been had. They didn’t think one person could do what they challenged them to do and it backfired. The reason people hate these companies is because they have written these rules in about these things for their own protection even though people think it’s for them. And now they are going to possibly get away with taking prizes away from two people who most likely deserves it

Quote: SOOPOO

WSOP is investigating possible interesting case of collusion. Carroll had 9-1 chip lead in heads up play. But observers surmised he intentionally lost. Seems strange since the total prize between the two of them from WSOP was a fixed number……. but…… Yaginuma was eligible for an extra $1,000,000 from an outside sponsor. Carroll, had he won, would not have qualified for the million.

The WSOP is not making prize payouts or announcing a winner pending an investigation. Seems like it will be a tough case to prove.
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I don't believe anything will come of this. People make deals all of the time in poker. With an added million dollars if one of the two won it makes a lot of sense.

Quote: heatmap

I hate when people refer to pocket aces and “how people would play”… whenever I have pocket aces I play them however the hell I want because I can play them that way. Just the hand alone is NEVER enough for a pro poker player… all of a sudden aces appear and people forget about position, chip stack, etc… relative to when they get 72 … now all the hypothetical fancy play comes out.

I hope they colluded. I hope they get away with it. The company that is putting the extra milli up needs to just accept that they have been had. They didn’t think one person could do what they challenged them to do and it backfired. The reason people hate these companies is because they have written these rules in about these things for their own protection even though people think it’s for them. And now they are going to possibly get away with taking prizes away from two people who most likely deserves it
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I believe the company is >>> ClubWPT online social poker – Play Poker Online To Win Cash & Prizes. They seem to love this, as they are doubling down on the amount of tickets one can earn now. Someone on Twitter/X predicted this would encourage collusion when they started the promotion.

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

WSOP is investigating possible interesting case of collusion. Carroll had 9-1 chip lead in heads up play. But observers surmised he intentionally lost. Seems strange since the total prize between the two of them from WSOP was a fixed number……. but…… Yaginuma was eligible for an extra $1,000,000 from an outside sponsor. Carroll, had he won, would not have qualified for the million.

The WSOP is not making prize payouts or announcing a winner pending an investigation. Seems like it will be a tough case to prove.
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I don't believe anything will come of this. People make deals all of the time in poker. With an added million dollars if one of the two won it makes a lot of sense.
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Someone mentioned this could be a NV gaming violation. What say you?