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9 members have voted
The bottom line is a RTP of 98.23%.
For all the details, please see my page at WoO, linked to above.
Here is a video of me playing.
Demo game at Draft Kings.
The question for the poll is would you play Hart Race Hold 'em? (multiple votes allowed)
Quote: odiousgambitif I understand it right, the advice to bet or fold says if the smaller of the two stacks is that number, or lower, bet ... so it doesn't matter who's chips fit the bill, it's time to bet ... interesting
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Yes. Let's look at ace-2 offsuit, for example. The table says 37/42 (with the 37 on top). That means if you're the small blind, bet if the smaller stick is 37 or less. If you're the big blind, then bet if the small stack is 42 or less.
I enjoyed playing this and might play more. I wasn't a good candidate for enjoying the 'chatter', but did ... up until the point it's clear it will just repeat
Quote: odiousgambitInteresting also that you bet even 3,2 offsuit if you get him on his last legs, or, remarkably enough, you yourself are about gone
I enjoyed playing this and might play more. I wasn't a good candidate for enjoying the 'chatter', but did ... up until the point it's clear it will just repeat
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It's proper tournament strategy (correct me if I'm wrong) to go all-in with anything if your stack is really small. Otherwise, the blinds eat you up.
I agree that the list of jokes is too short.
Hart Race Hold 'em .
1.77 is what the game claims [0.9823 return upthread] I believe this means you are in slight disagreement?
I played the game on a promotion, and it plays really slow for my taste. I won a tournament for $1280 and I hope no W-2G was issued.Quote: WizardQuote: odiousgambitif I understand it right, the advice to bet or fold says if the smaller of the two stacks is that number, or lower, bet ... so it doesn't matter who's chips fit the bill, it's time to bet ... interesting
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Yes. Let's look at ace-2 offsuit, for example. The table says 37/42 (with the 37 on top). That means if you're the small blind, bet if the smaller stick is 37 or less. If you're the big blind, then bet if the small stack is 42 or less.
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There are a lot of moving parts to getting this EV correct. One nuance is that you cannot assume the player plays every Ax, so the probability of Kevin cracking your Aces full is not the same as the probability of you being dealt a boat that would end up getting beat. The same is true for quad deuces, too.
The Markov chain has a very small number of transitions, so I am going to assume a high probability that the strategy table is correct.
Get about 3 shit hands right away. 1st hand is 7-2 off, then 8-4 off, and 7-3 off, all were mucked.
Then I get a few playable hands. Lose with some Jack High and Queen High hands, fine it happens, then the real shady shit starts!
1) K-4 vs 'Kevin' with Q-6. I catch a 4 on the flop, no flush draws, river comes up a Queen! Sure fine...
2) K-8 vs 'Kevin with J-9. Flop comes up 6-6-4, another 4 on the turn... Ace on the river... Push... Riiiight.
3) A-K offsuit vs 'Kevin' with 3-4 off, Flop comes up 5 -6 7... Yea, definitely NOT rigged... Lol!
Only lost $30 or so, not a big deal. It's just the miracle Rivers and Amazing "luck" of the Kev Bot seems to be in full Kill mode.
Last night I went all-in with ace-6 suited, flopped two pair, then lost to 4-7 offsuit when my imaginary opponent rivered an 8 for an inside straight!
Quote: WizardRecently I offered a strong poker player the same deal this game does, except without the Bad Beat Bonuses. He was very eager to accept. I then confessed that this was an actual game and someone I have great respect for did the math. My friend thanked me for my honesty and then backed out of the bet.
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Good for you for telling him but also its kind of foolish hed take the bet in the first instance. Im highly skeptical of anyone offering a bet and definitely not accepting a bet on terms you list for anything other than a nominal/trivial amount (I mean that not as a slight of you, but more the opposite).
My favorite example in this case is (I believe) its profitable for you to be dealer and offer to give the player hard 18 every hand and just deal out the dealer hand. Most players think 18 is +EV but its not
and this would be true, you'd slaughter the guy. Except, you don't get to keep what you win as in regular poker. Instead, you get paid even money on a side bet and the chip values and winnings are meaningless
Can one do a simulation actually playing this scenario? I know the dealer's average hand is slightly higher than 18 when you do that calculation, but how does that actually play out taking into account the fact that the player can never bust?Quote: TinManQuote: WizardRecently I offered a strong poker player the same deal this game does, except without the Bad Beat Bonuses. He was very eager to accept. I then confessed that this was an actual game and someone I have great respect for did the math. My friend thanked me for my honesty and then backed out of the bet.
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Good for you for telling him but also its kind of foolish hed take the bet in the first instance. Im highly skeptical of anyone offering a bet and definitely not accepting a bet on terms you list for anything other than a nominal/trivial amount (I mean that not as a slight of you, but more the opposite).
My favorite example in this case is (I believe) its profitable for you to be dealer and offer to give the player hard 18 every hand and just deal out the dealer hand. Most players think 18 is +EV but its not
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No simulation needed. Just look up the probabilities for various dealer totals and calculate the EV. You can find these probabilities for H17 and S17. For example:Quote: AxelWolfCan one do a simulation actually playing this scenario? I know the dealer's average hand is slightly higher than 18 when you do that calculation, but how does that actually play out taking into account the fact that the player can never bust?Quote: TinManQuote: WizardRecently I offered a strong poker player the same deal this game does, except without the Bad Beat Bonuses. He was very eager to accept. I then confessed that this was an actual game and someone I have great respect for did the math. My friend thanked me for my honesty and then backed out of the bet.
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Good for you for telling him but also its kind of foolish hed take the bet in the first instance. Im highly skeptical of anyone offering a bet and definitely not accepting a bet on terms you list for anything other than a nominal/trivial amount (I mean that not as a slight of you, but more the opposite).
My favorite example in this case is (I believe) its profitable for you to be dealer and offer to give the player hard 18 every hand and just deal out the dealer hand. Most players think 18 is +EV but its not
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link to original post
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/dealer-odds-blackjack-us-rules/
Quote: TinManMy favorite example in this case is (I believe) its profitable for you to be dealer and offer to give the player hard 18 every hand and just deal out the dealer hand. Most players think 18 is +EV but its not
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I think this game was at the Fremont for a while. Regular blackjack, but the player always had an 18 starting hand.
Quote: TinManGood for you for telling him but also its kind of foolish hed take the bet in the first instance.
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Thank you. Even more important that smart gambling to me is ethical gambling. I think it's just not right to take advantage of people. My philosophy is it's better to be cheated than to cheat someone else.
Quote: AxelWolfCan one do a simulation actually playing this scenario? I know the dealer's average hand is slightly higher than 18 when you do that calculation, but how does that actually play out taking into account the fact that the player can never bust?Quote: TinManQuote: WizardRecently I offered a strong poker player the same deal this game does, except without the Bad Beat Bonuses. He was very eager to accept. I then confessed that this was an actual game and someone I have great respect for did the math. My friend thanked me for my honesty and then backed out of the bet.
link to original post
Good for you for telling him but also its kind of foolish hed take the bet in the first instance. Im highly skeptical of anyone offering a bet and definitely not accepting a bet on terms you list for anything other than a nominal/trivial amount (I mean that not as a slight of you, but more the opposite).
My favorite example in this case is (I believe) its profitable for you to be dealer and offer to give the player hard 18 every hand and just deal out the dealer hand. Most players think 18 is +EV but its not
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The player also never gets a blackjack and probably never doubles or splits.
All vulture plays are taking money away from casual gamblers who created the value in the first place. Vultures harm innocent fellow citizens first and casinos only tangentially.Quote: WizardQuote: TinManGood for you for telling him but also its kind of foolish hed take the bet in the first instance.
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Thank you. Even more important that smart gambling to me is ethical gambling. I think it's just not right to take advantage of people. My philosophy is it's better to be cheated than to cheat someone else.
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Every form of AP play is using skill and knowledge to take advantage of your fellow man. Ethically, I find it more acceptable to take money from corporations and their shareholders than directly from other gamblers. However, I am using more deception when I take money directly from the pockets of casinos.
None of it seems more ethical than getting a friend to take a prop bet that is deceptively tilted in your favor.
Quote: MentalNone of it seems more ethical than getting a friend to take a prop bet that is deceptively tilted in your favor.
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I first read that [quickly] and thought you said 'more UNethical'! ... I agree [mostly] with what you actually said
As for getting someone to take the player side, and you the house side, in a Hart Race Holdem contest, that would be fair and square in my book for almost any situation ... except ... I think it would be kind of stinky for the Wizard to do that to a friend, without telling him what he did tell him.
on another note, I have wondered what the ideal strategy would be if you actually got to keep the money you won. Should you wait for good cards? Surely you don't have to wait for cards as good as the Hart game strategy. Would 'just slightly better' than average cards be best strategy? It's complicated to me because the ante is very low [good] but the bet is always "all in" [bad?]
I think it is kind of stinky for me to pretend to be a clueless degen gambler when I am actually a ruthless predator. At least at the poker table, people should understand that misrepresentation and deception are built into the game. Hubris makes it easier for people to underestimate their competition, whether it is a poker player, casino manager, or the target of a prop bet. I know how clueless and helpless my competition is, yet I keep on taking their money. I don't claim it is ethical. However, I play be the rules, and my only real regret is that the population isn't smarter. It's not purely stupidity, either. In some cases, smart people just become stupid when they enter the gambling realm.Quote: odiousgambitQuote: MentalNone of it seems more ethical than getting a friend to take a prop bet that is deceptively tilted in your favor.
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I first read that [quickly] and thought you said 'more UNethical'! ... I agree [mostly] with what you actually said
As for getting someone to take the player side, and you the house side, in a Hart Race Holdem contest, that would be fair and square in my book for almost any situation ... except ... I think it would be kind of stinky for the Wizard to do that to a friend, without telling him what he did tell him.
Quote: odiousgambit
on another note, I have wondered what the ideal strategy would be if you actually got to keep the money you won. Should you wait for good cards? Surely you don't have to wait for cards as good as the Hart game strategy. Would 'just slightly better' than average cards be best strategy? It's complicated to me because the ante is very low [good] but the bet is always "all in" [bad?]
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The strategy is posted in the help pages of the game. I have not double-checked the math, but the posted strategy seems reasonable. I would do the math if I ever intended to play more than a few times. I played it briefly when I had a 10% cashback promo offer specifically for that game. I found it tedious.
That's a very tight strategy that would be unnecessary, I have to believeQuote: MentalQuote: odiousgambit
on another note, I have wondered what the ideal strategy would be if you actually got to keep the money you won. Should you wait for good cards? Surely you don't have to wait for cards as good as the Hart game strategy. Would 'just slightly better' than average cards be best strategy? It's complicated to me because the ante is very low [good] but the bet is always "all in" [bad?]
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The strategy is posted in the help pages of the game.
Quote:I have not double-checked the math, but the posted strategy seems reasonable. I would do the math if I ever intended to play more than a few times. I played it briefly when I had a 10% cashback promo offer specifically for that game. I found it tedious.
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I can see I was unclear . I was wondering about playing a different game, essentially, where you get to keep what you would win in poker chips ... not the Hart game rules, where the bet is you will not bust , but Hart will, on a slight deviation from 50-50 chance ... with a house edge, of course. If you get to keep the chips, and are allowed to keep buying in, that would be a tremendously +EV situation as everyone can see. [all rules the same except you keep chips you win]
You'd be OK almost no matter what you did, but what would be the best strategy?
You are still not clearly defining the game you have in mind.Quote: odiousgambitI can see I was unclear . I was wondering about playing a different game, essentially, where you get to keep what you would win in poker chips ... not the Hart game rules, where the bet is you will not bust , but Hart will, on a slight deviation from 50-50 chance ... with a house edge, of course. If you get to keep the chips, and are allowed to keep buying in, that would be a tremendously +EV situation as everyone can see. [all rules the same except you keep chips you win]
You'd be OK almost no matter what you did, but what would be the best strategy?
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However, if the chips represent cash, then you can use any poker equity calculator to find the right strategy for any hand. If your only decision is to fold or go all in, then the pot odds are known. PokerStove is the one I am familiar with, but there must be many available.
In the Hart Race Holdem, the value of a chip is situation dependent. You have to know what the probability of winning the contest is based on then ending stack sizes for the call or fold decision. If you know those two probabilities, then you can get a EV for each decision similar to pot equity. However, the EV will depend on strategy, so you have a circular problem. You have to start with a strategy, then determine the EV, then iterate to tweak the strategy.
In a cash game like you describe, no iteration is needed because the EV of a certain number of chips is known. It doesn't seem like an interesting problem.
Quote: MentalAll vulture plays are taking money away from casual gamblers who created the value in the first place. Vultures harm innocent fellow citizens first and casinos only tangentially.
Every form of AP play is using skill and knowledge to take advantage of your fellow man. Ethically, I find it more acceptable to take money from corporations and their shareholders than directly from other gamblers. However, I am using more deception when I take money directly from the pockets of casinos.
None of it seems more ethical than getting a friend to take a prop bet that is deceptively tilted in your favor.
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Very good points. We could have a good debate about this over a beer or three.
To your point, nobody is making recreational players play and leave machines in a positive state. That is on them. I find the vulture who takes advantage of a play like a real vulture picking meat off of a carcass that another animal fought and killed. It's just the natural order of things that if there is free meat out there, somebody is going to eat it. May as well be me.
It's another thing to look someone in the eye and deceive them. Not speaking up can be just as bad as lying, sometimes.
I agree that the EV from any AP vulture play is probably going into the pocket of an AP and not the general population that feeds these AP opportunities. You are not harming the general population by taking them for yourself. I think the designers of stateful games are operating unethically. Patrons can often find out that slots in their favorite casino have a certain RTP, lets say 90% RTP. Nobody informs them that persistent state machines can sometime have an RTP of 70% or less when they are in a bad state. I have never seen such a warning in the help screen. I believe AGS and Everi are doing pure evil in their MH programs. Where is the transparency? Where are the regulators that are supposed to protect the public from deceptive gambling games? APs are angels compared to the unethical behavior game designers and casinos.Quote: WizardTo your point, nobody is making recreational players play and leave machines in a positive state. That is on them. I find the vulture who takes advantage of a play like a real vulture picking meat off of a carcass that another animal fought and killed. It's just the natural order of things that if there is free meat out there, somebody is going to eat it. May as well be me.
When I look across a poker table, every assumes I am trying to take their money. They expect me to use deception. I feel less honest when I go through a casino and put all the Scarab games in a very negative EV state. This affects random strangers rather than people I looked in the eye. This should hardly enter into the conversation about ethics.Quote: Wizard
It's another thing to look someone in the eye and deceive them. Not speaking up can be just as bad as lying, sometimes.link to original post
I tell my relatives that if they must gamble, then stay away from any machine with a meter of any kind. Those games are likely to be the worst games available in terms of RTP.
In this imaginary contest you play until one side has no chips, but then you repeat, buying in again. When you lose, you lose $80, when you win, you get $160. Only if!Quote: MentalYou are still not clearly defining the game you have in mind.
As far as I can tell, a player seems to benefit by playing only pretty good cards in this quite different game , but not as tightly as for this game or for UTH, another opponent who never folds. I'd say perfect play might be slightly looser than for UTH, and that this is largely due to the low ante. This is math I couldn't do though.
I won't belabor this anymore, but bad poker play is an interesting topic for me, since I didn't realize how bad I was myself until I read a book on poker about 49 years ago. Today, my poker play is in friendly games where we play for very low stakes. Some players never fold their initial cards, they literally don't know what are cards you should fold. This type of bad player also doesn't realize the effect of a low ante. However, I find it's not so simple to win as all that since if you play 'correctly' you stand out as playing too tight and players won't bet into your good hands. You can still win at these games but it seems to be better 'always' if players don't know for sure how good your cards are. Poker is complicated in this way and playing against bad poker play also has a strategy.
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True optimal strategy would be a little tricky because you would definitely play each tournament sub-optimally to get to the next +++EV tournament more quickly. You would play more aggressively than single-tournament optimum strategy.
I played poker professionally years ago, mostly mixed limit games up to $150/300 blinds. I am not a great player, but I was pretty good at picking games that are good and leaving when they are no longer good. I also knew and respected the other pros in the games and tried not to butt heads with them without good reason.
Quote: MentalI agree that the EV from any AP vulture play is probably going into the pocket of an AP and not the general population that feeds these AP opportunities. You are not harming the general population by taking them for yourself. I think the designers of stateful games are operating unethically. Patrons can often find out that slots in their favorite casino have a certain RTP, lets say 90% RTP. Nobody informs them that persistent state machines can sometime have an RTP of 70% or less when they are in a bad state. I have never seen such a warning in the help screen. I believe AGS and Everi are doing pure evil in their MH programs. Where is the transparency? Where are the regulators that are supposed to protect the public from deceptive gambling games? APs are angels compared to the unethical behavior game designers and casinos.
When I look across a poker table, every assumes I am trying to take their money. They expect me to use deception. I feel less honest when I go through a casino and put all the Scarab games in a very negative EV state. This affects random strangers rather than people I looked in the eye. This should hardly enter into the conversation about ethics.
I tell my relatives that if they must gamble, then stay away from any machine with a meter of any kind. Those games are likely to be the worst games available in terms of RTP.
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Good post! You make your case well and I respect your opinion.
I absolutely agree that variable-state slots do not take money from the slot makers or casino into the hands of AP's, but from recreational players. It's a very good point to advise recreational players NOT to play variable-state slots. Going forward, I will say that more directly.
As to rigged must-hits, I agree 100%. I didn't know about Everi. I checked with a slot vulture and he wasn't sure. Perhaps I'll make a separate thread on this topic, as it's a very worthy subject on it's own.
As to the regulators, they generally don't play and don't understand these issues. I think they ultimately know which side of their bread gets buttered and are unlikely to do anything the big fish in the pond they regulate angry.
As to poker, deception is an essential part of the game, like the net is in tennis.
After all this, I forgot what our point of departure is, if we have one.
? ... all rules exactly the same otherwise I said. Including that you must go all in if you bet. And you only have the same decision point, first two cards, either fold or go all inQuote: MentalThink about it. The RTP for Hart Race Holdem is 98.23%, so I you win the tournament almost half the time. Kevin starts with twice the stack, so you win 160 chips almost half the time and lose 80 chips the rest of the time. You would make massive amounts of money if you were paid 2:1 instead of 1:1 for winning the tournament (using the stated strategy without adjustments). It stands to reason that you would also have an enormous advantage if you both started with 80 chips and got paid 1:1. You haven't stated the starting stack sizes,
no changes other than you play for the poker chips and do not make the bet the game actually says to makeQuote:but every possible choice of sizes would be hugely +EV for you. The stated strategy would need to be adjusted for any change in rules and payouts.
I'm glad you agree it's a little tricky. Thanks for the comments .Quote:True optimal strategy would be a little tricky because you would definitely play each tournament sub-optimally to get to the next +++EV tournament more quickly. You would play more aggressively than single-tournament optimum strategy.
I played poker professionally years ago, mostly mixed limit games up to $150/300 blinds. I am not a great player, but I was pretty good at picking games that are good and leaving when they are no longer good. I also knew and respected the other pros in the games and tried not to butt heads with them without good reason.
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Would I play it? Until I found the option to turn off Kevin's "jokes" and commentary, I would have said no, because it was playing too slowly. With that off, it's a maybe.
FYI: I believe this is the first new game you've written a page about that I'm actually considering playing. It certainly seems like by playing only premium hands, there is a possible player advantage.
Of course, a small edge like 1.7% can certainly seem like it's possible to beat with a good strategy.
If nothing else, it sure does teach you patience!
I am curious about one thing. How did they decide to start with 80/160 chips? Certainly 100/200 would play the same and sound better, right?
Anyway, there are some issues with your article.
You have some of the terminology / rules incorrect - which is typical for novice players regarding heads-up rules.
In heads-up play, the dealer is the small blind and acts first pre-flop.
You state the dealer is not physically dealing. While true for a casino poker room, it's not true for a self dealt game. The Hart game looks and acts like a self-dealt game. When he's the dealer, he actually holds the deck and deals, with the cards coming down off the deck, in a motion toward the player. When the player is the dealer, the deck is not seen (below the screen?) but the cards move up, coming from the player's side.
You have #6 exactly backwards. The side dealing bets 1 (small blind). The other player bets 2 (big blind).
In #7 and #8 you again mixed up the small / big blind.
In #9 you use the term "hole cards". They're HOLD cards. (hence the name Hold 'Em).
In #10 you may have the rule correct - for this game. But you might want to mention that most casino bad beats / high hand promos do not depreciate as you suggest.
Also, typical poker terminology uses the term 'counterfeit' to describe a situation such as holding 48, with a board of 4855Q. The pair of fours don't count, so you're essentially downgraded to one pair. Someone with a pocket pair higher than fives, or just a queen with any other card, will beat your hand with a better two pair. Plus there's the player with just a five for trips. So for this rule, counterfeit might be a better term to use.
Considering the length of your chart, you might want to put the link to the game somewhere before that chart, or near the start of the article.
Otherwise, good article, and intriguing game!
Counterfeit is a more common term than deprecated. It isn't particularly apt, but it has been standard usage in poker for a long time to describe hole cards that are made useless by other cards showing up.
I agree that the game plays too slowly. A turbo mode would be great.Quote: DJTeddyBearI have comments about the game and the article. Ill start with the game.
Would I play it? Until I found the option to turn off Kevin's "jokes" and commentary, I would have said no, because it was playing too slowly. With that off, it's a maybe.
I think you are wrongly assuming that the RTP isn't a product of optimal strategy already. How can you improve on optimal strategy? The method for calculating optimal strategy is fairly obvious and hard to botch. I assume the game designer got it right and also had someone double check before the game was released. If you do find errors, my hat is off to you for doing the work.Quote: DJTeddyBear
FYI: I believe this is the first new game you've written a page about that I'm actually considering playing. It certainly seems like by playing only premium hands, there is a possible player advantage.
Of course, a small edge like 1.7% can certainly seem like it's possible to beat with a good strategy.
I think we just disagree. Maybe its a regional thing.
Turbo?
Turning off Kevin's jokes & comments in the settings makes it relatively fast to fold and get the next decision. Playing a hand still takes a few seconds, but not as long as with the comments turned on.
RTP / Beatable?
I think you misunderstood. I don't think it's beatable because the edge is only 1.7%. I thought it seemed like it might be beatable before I knew the edge. Now that I know the edge, it just kinda confirms that it's so close to a coin flip that it could seem beatable.
Thanks for the clarification. Also, I had forgotten that there is a turbo mode. Tournaments still can take very long to play. I did win one tournament in two hands.Quote: DJTeddyBearHold / Hole ?
I think we just disagree. Maybe its a regional thing.
Turbo?
Turning off Kevin's jokes & comments in the settings makes it relatively fast to fold and get the next decision. Playing a hand still takes a few seconds, but not as long as with the comments turned on.
RTP / Beatable?
I think you misunderstood. I don't think it's beatable because the edge is only 1.7%. I thought it seemed like it might be beatable before I knew the edge. Now that I know the edge, it just kinda confirms that it's so close to a coin flip that it could seem beatable.
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Well, it might not be beatable but still be +EV because I often get 2% or more cashback on slots and more rarely on table games. It makes a lot of difference to me whether any game is classified as a slot game or a table game. I have verified that HRH is considered a table game at DK for purposes of leaderboards. Payoffs greater than $1200 do not generate tax reports.
Oddly, turning the options off in settings provides even faster play.Quote: odiousgambitthere's a lightning symbol. Click on that for faster play
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