NL holdem percentage of hands that will chop

Anyone?

Don't know the answer myself, but below are the chances that I found for 2 player heads up no limit holdem, after doing a search "chance of a chopped pot in no limit holdem":

4.03% according to site 1 and
6.21...% according to site 2

Site 1: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15/poker-theory/split-pot-probability-question-1433789/

Site 2: https://wizardofodds.com/games/poker/

Note: To find the relevant info, scroll down to a bit before halfway for site 1, and a bit over halfway for site 2 (in site 2, the table says "Texas Hold 'Em — Chopped Pots")

Note 2: There is a significant difference betweeen the two sources.

Also, the WoO site shows the chances all the way up to 10 players, so it should be more helpful than the other site (if correct).

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First, let me say that this depends upon how many players there are at the table, which starting hands they tend to fold, and whether they subsequently choose to go to showdown (all the way to the end.)

If you are a mathematician, and you calculate that two players have KK and K2o and the board comes 888-A-K, you may think that is a case where the two players tie with a full house, 888-KK. But, it is not! The player with KK will almost certainly make bets that drive out the player with K2o before the river card (K) hits the board.

No-Limit Texas Hold'em Poker is NOT a game where all players at the table stay in the hand until showdown.

If your calculations always assume that all players stay in until showdown, then the calculation has some academic interest but it doe not inform the public as to what to expect to see when they sit at a poker table.

Player with KK is going to have Kings full of 8’s

Quote: linksjunkie

Player with KK is going to have Kings full of 8’s

LOL, good point. My error. But please take my point. It is incredibly rare for a table with n players to go to showdown, especially when n is 3 or more.