heatmap
• Posts: 2280
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
October 10th, 2019 at 11:45:02 AM permalink
Sitting at poker 1/2 NL, and a high hand gets called. Nothing out of the ordinary.

I dont think these people were messing with me, because if people knew what I thought, they would mess with me haha...

The guy next to me goes, "Thats the third straight flush in a row". So I reiterate, "You are telling me that the high hand that has just came out was the third straight flush to appear in a row of high hands" . "Yup". Apparently it went, Jack high straight flush, King High, then Queen high.

What are the chances of this happening? I know I was around for two of them and can confirm the current one that had been beaten was beaten by another straight flush because everyone pretty much gasped when it came out .
charliepatrick
• Posts: 2967
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October 10th, 2019 at 3:20:26 PM permalink
The permuatations can be found here ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability or https://wizardofodds.com/games/poker/ ). Thus the chances of the third one, given you've already seen/heard about two, is about 1 in 3200.
heatmap
• Posts: 2280
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
October 10th, 2019 at 4:15:16 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

The permuatations can be found here ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability or https://wizardofodds.com/games/poker/ ). Thus the chances of the third one, given you've already seen/heard about two, is about 1 in 3200.

So very very possible and not very impossible
Wizard
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October 10th, 2019 at 4:45:06 PM permalink
My poker probabilities says that in a 10-player game, assuming nobody folds, the probability the hand is a straight flush is 0.002547 and a royal flush is 0.000309. Since a royal flush is a type of straight flush, I'll add them together to get 0.002856. After some easy math, the probability that three specific hands in a row would all be a straight flush is 1 in 43,000,000.

However, I think to make the question more down to earth, let's ask what would be the probability that happens in a day. Let's assume the full 24 hours and 30 hands per hour. That probability is 1 in 59,621.
Last edited by: Wizard on Feb 23, 2020
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
7craps
• Posts: 1977
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
October 10th, 2019 at 5:16:14 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

That probability is 1 in 59,621.

59,621 days?
that is a little over 163 years.

I never believe any poker stories, they are for entertainment ONLY.
LOL
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Wizard
• Posts: 26619
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
October 10th, 2019 at 5:32:50 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

59,621 days?
that is a little over 163 years.

I agree. To put it another way, if you played 24 hours a day, 30 hands per hour, 10 player games, and nobody ever folded, you would see this once every 163 years.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxelWolf