Hold 'em strategy

You are playing in the WSOP main event. The bubble just broke and you're all in the money so there'll be many more that have to be knocked out to increase the payout. Let's say you knew that a player at your table is All In pre flop with a pair of 6s with 10 Big Blinds left and the table has folded around to just your AJ off and you have 40 big blinds. Let's say you are a 46% to 54% dog. Should you make the call? The reason I ask is because I've been watching a lot of tournement play and it seems that this kind of play is considered "the right call."

It seems to me that you wouldn't want to make this kind of call if you knew you were a dog. There would be a couple hundred knock outs until the money goes up, and you really aren't thinning the field with some 600 players still in it. What are your thoughts?

Edit: I was thinking of this post and stumbled onto a thought. When you call the guy with 6,6 you are getting odds that compensate for the fact that you are slightly behind, because the antes and blinds have built up the pot.

Quote: Greasyjohn

You are playing in the WSOP main event. The bubble just broke and you're all in the money so there'll be many more that have to be knocked out to increase the payout. Let's say you knew that a player at your table is All In pre flop with a pair of 6s with 10 Big Blinds left and the table has folded around to just your AJ off and you have 40 big blinds. Let's say you are a 46% to 54% dog. Should you make the call? The reason I ask is because I've been watching a lot of tournement play and it seems that this kind of play is considered "the right call."

It seems to me that you wouldn't want to make this kind of call if you knew you were a dog. There would be a couple hundred knock outs until the money goes up, and you really aren't thinning the field with some 600 players still in it. What are your thoughts?

Edit: I was thinking of this post and stumbled onto a thought. When you call the guy with 6,6 you are getting odds that compensate for the fact that you are slightly behind, because the antes and blinds have built up the pot.

If by folding around to you it means you're the BB, and you have already identified your maximum exposure since he's all-in and you're only risking 1/4 your money head-s up, I would absolutely call him and defend my BB. Not claiming to be an expert, but for those reasons I would, and you asked for thoughts. In fact, if somehow you're not the BB and the only one left, you must already have something in the pot to defend, and you can win the SB/BB amounts from others as well, so that's even more equity.

How do you know they have 66? Are you referring to the commentators saying the call was right while looking at hole card cam?

If I am playing and a short stack ships and it comes to my BB it is an easy call. If I were at the table and he exposed the 66 my play would have me fold unless there was also a bunch of dead money in the pot.

The right call is not always the easiest to stomach. Remember, you are only technically behind because he has a pair and you don't. If you catch another Ace or King, he's behind by a lot now. You have more chances to catch an Ace or King than he does with another 6. Yes it's the right call, but it's tough to stomach. His winning odds increase significantly for every turn where u don't pick up anything. No shame in losing a big hand.

And this also depends on how much action is in the pot.

It's a factor of how many BBs you have to call, how much blinds and antes contribute and how your hand does against his likely range. There are a few more small details that factor in but I won't be discussing those.

Also there are high ante and low ante levels. You can be at 3000/6000 w 1000 ante and also 5000/10000 w 1000 ante. As you can see, 9 antes = 1.5BB in the first example but only .9BB in the second. Those are actual blind structures from the 2013 main event.

So he shoves 10 blinds, you have 1 blind in, small blind is .5 and we'll say antes are 1.5BB. 9BB to call a pot of 13BB. That looks like it's between 1.4:1 and 1.5:1. We know that at 2:1 we need 33% to call and at 1:1 we need 50% to call. 1.4 to 1.5 is right between those so we need about 45% to call. So as long as he's a 'typical' tournament player and shoving decently wide, we can call. If he's not shoving any worse Aces like AT and no worse jacks like KJ then it becomes a fold because AJo vs all pairs and only better aces (AK/AQ/AJ) is only around 41%.

The reason, in my opinion, this seems like "the right call" is because often they know there's a chance their AJ is good and not the dog. There's always the chance someone on a short stack pushed with KQ, A-10 or weaker, etc, etc. So they're figuring several odds... How likely is it they have something like AA or AK in which I'm a huge dog, vs How likely is it that the players has a pair under my AJ, vs how likely is it the player pushed weak on KQ or A-rag?

What it really comes down to is Range. Every player at the table has a range of hands they play for their given stacks/tilt/etc. In your situation, just after the bubble broke and we're in the money, most 'average' players will widen their range in an attempt to get some chips or bust. After all, like you said the next level of pay isn't for some time. This is what makes the AJ a call in generic situations. Pro's know the ranges of most players are much wider, which means a short stack is indeed much more likely to push on KQ, A-rag, or a small-medium pair. So they're figuring there's a decent chance their AJ is actually the best hand, and they're relying on the other situations (such as a small-medium pair) to be a coin flip in the backup scenario.

Now if you KNOW your AJ is not good, say the player told you he has a middle pair, then personally I wouldn't call. I'd look to get my money in at better positions given I have 40 BB and some time to do so... but to each their own, perhaps some gamble more than others. You MUST win coin flips in tournaments to win them, so perhaps that's the mentality of some as well. For your question though, most of the time the pro's are more concerned about the widened range, than knowing they're behind and wanting to "gamble" a 50/50.

Thanks for all the replies. I've been watching the WSOP Main Events on YouTube. I've been enjoying learning more about poker. I own Super System and started reading Sklansky's "Hold 'em Poker". Norman Chad is great to watch. And following some of the personalities in poker is interesting and entertaining.

The only way to win is to find an idiot and play with him/her. believe me.

Quote: Greasyjohn

The reason I ask is because I've been watching a lot of tournement play and it seems that this kind of play is considered "the right call."

As Romes alluded to, you can't really KNOW the opponent has 66. You have to estimate a range and compute how you do against all the hands where you think he would make that play.

Here are some things that should lead you to be more inclined to make the call, in approximate order of importance. This is a quick list, so I'm probably missing something:
--You think the villain would do this with a very wide range of hands for any reason, most likely that they are just generally aggressive preflop
--There are zero or very few players to act after you, particularly aggressive players
--There are antes in addition to blinds
--You are not particularly skilled compared to the field and therefore don't mind "gambling"
--You think people view you as a soft target and wish to demonstrate that you will defend your BB or make loose calls