FatBabyKate
Joined: Jul 6, 2015
• Posts: 4
July 9th, 2015 at 11:03:26 AM permalink
OK! Thanks everyone for your attempts at doing the math for me. I was eventually told by the man that offered the bet that it was approximately 55%-45% in his favor so I am going to assume that he is probably correct! Since you guys have come up with several answers to this.....can anyone correct all the attempts here and give me a final correct answer that is absolute? Thanks everyone.
studmuffn
Joined: Jan 14, 2015
• Posts: 50
July 9th, 2015 at 11:11:06 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

32.3% chance to win, 67.7% to lose. Total sucker bet.

This is the correct answer. Even if you got 2:1 odds, it would still be slightly in his favor.
Joined: Jul 3, 2015
• Posts: 30
July 9th, 2015 at 1:23:08 PM permalink
Quote: FatBabyKate

I was eventually told by the man that offered the bet that it was approximately 55%-45% in his favor

That's true if he's talking about 3 ranks. The way you phrased the question it sounded like 4 ranks (2,3,4,J).

With 4 ranks it's roughly 68-32 in his favor like the others said.
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
• Posts: 6526
July 9th, 2015 at 1:48:06 PM permalink
Quote: studmuffn

This is the correct answer. Even if you got 2:1 odds, it would still be slightly in his favor.

Right, but offering 2:1 would be a red flag for the mark. Better to make it even money and not raise suspicions. The fact that it yields a 35% edge is what makes it a great sucker bet.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
FatBabyKate
Joined: Jul 6, 2015
• Posts: 4
July 12th, 2015 at 12:38:35 AM permalink
I apologize as it seems I may have caused some confusion with the way I have written my post. It should be that the bet was that a 2, a 4, or a Jack would come on the flop! He was betting that one of 3 cards would hit. Not 4! I'm sorry about that!
FatBabyKate
Joined: Jul 6, 2015