FatBabyKate
FatBabyKate
Joined: Jul 6, 2015
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 4
July 9th, 2015 at 11:03:26 AM permalink
OK! Thanks everyone for your attempts at doing the math for me. I was eventually told by the man that offered the bet that it was approximately 55%-45% in his favor so I am going to assume that he is probably correct! Since you guys have come up with several answers to this.....can anyone correct all the attempts here and give me a final correct answer that is absolute? Thanks everyone.
studmuffn
studmuffn
Joined: Jan 14, 2015
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 50
July 9th, 2015 at 11:11:06 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

32.3% chance to win, 67.7% to lose. Total sucker bet.


This is the correct answer. Even if you got 2:1 odds, it would still be slightly in his favor.
AlmondBread
AlmondBread
Joined: Jul 3, 2015
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  • Posts: 30
July 9th, 2015 at 1:23:08 PM permalink
Quote: FatBabyKate

I was eventually told by the man that offered the bet that it was approximately 55%-45% in his favor

That's true if he's talking about 3 ranks. The way you phrased the question it sounded like 4 ranks (2,3,4,J).

With 4 ranks it's roughly 68-32 in his favor like the others said.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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July 9th, 2015 at 1:48:06 PM permalink
Quote: studmuffn

This is the correct answer. Even if you got 2:1 odds, it would still be slightly in his favor.


Right, but offering 2:1 would be a red flag for the mark. Better to make it even money and not raise suspicions. The fact that it yields a 35% edge is what makes it a great sucker bet.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
FatBabyKate
FatBabyKate
Joined: Jul 6, 2015
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July 12th, 2015 at 12:38:35 AM permalink
I apologize as it seems I may have caused some confusion with the way I have written my post. It should be that the bet was that a 2, a 4, or a Jack would come on the flop! He was betting that one of 3 cards would hit. Not 4! I'm sorry about that!
So I'm gonna accept your answer that it will hit about 55.3% of the time. Thanks for your time!
FatBabyKate
FatBabyKate
Joined: Jul 6, 2015
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July 12th, 2015 at 1:04:37 AM permalink
YES!! A "Bar Bets" thread is exactly what I was asking for! Well...not EXACTLY I guess. But it is kinda what I had in mind when I asked if anyone had any other bets like this one that they could share with me. Although I didn't think about starting a whole new thread. I'm VERY new to posting and following these types of forums but I knew that if anyone could give me the math on this particular bet it would be The WizardofOdds or someone in his group of fans. So, me PERSONALLY, I would love to hear some of these type bets that I can use at some point down the road.
HeyMrDJ
HeyMrDJ
Joined: May 29, 2015
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 101
July 12th, 2015 at 6:46:59 AM permalink
I would say its even slightly higher than the math may suggest.
I saw some stats somewhere, a 2 is the most common card on a flop. The reason being that players prefer to player higher ranked cards, and more flops are seen with these cards in the players hands.
Guess who peed in my Cheerios? Romes did...

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