Neutrino
Joined: Feb 20, 2014
• Posts: 515
May 26th, 2014 at 12:24:52 AM permalink
I've been thinking about a move based on the theory on a very famous tell "If someone asks 'how much?' and then raise they have a good hand"

I've been mostly making neat bets before. So, what if from now on I just make extremely messy bets, with different color chips mixed in. My goal is to force the opponent to ask "how much" if he decides to not fold.

In theory, because I'm forcing him to ask "how much", if he raises he has a good hand. Therefore, if I make messy bets with mixed colors I'm guaranteed not to be bluffed. Being completely protected against bluffs is a huge advantage.

This sounds like extremely +EV if it works. The theory doesn't seem to have any holes in it logically, if the theory is wrong then the premise "how much + raise = good hand" is wrong.

You guys think this move is practical?
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
• Posts: 8277
May 26th, 2014 at 12:42:47 AM permalink
Logically it blows because you're forcing them to ask you "how much?" making them saying so worthless. Time to go back to robot school neutrino.
I am a robot.
Neutrino
Joined: Feb 20, 2014
• Posts: 515
May 26th, 2014 at 1:27:21 AM permalink
haha robot school, i do have faith one day they can whoop us in poker as they do in chess
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
• Posts: 3321
May 26th, 2014 at 1:55:37 AM permalink
Quote: Neutrino

I've been thinking about a move based on the theory on a very famous tell "If someone asks 'how much?' and then raise they have a good hand"

I've been mostly making neat bets before. So, what if from now on I just make extremely messy bets, with different color chips mixed in. My goal is to force the opponent to ask "how much" if he decides to not fold.

In theory, because I'm forcing him to ask "how much", if he raises he has a good hand. Therefore, if I make messy bets with mixed colors I'm guaranteed not to be bluffed. Being completely protected against bluffs is a huge advantage.

This sounds like extremely +EV if it works. The theory doesn't seem to have any holes in it logically, if the theory is wrong then the premise "how much + raise = good hand" is wrong.

You guys think this move is practical?

Wat
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8606
May 26th, 2014 at 5:48:02 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Wat

right on time!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Boney526
Joined: Sep 25, 2011
• Posts: 366
May 26th, 2014 at 7:41:41 AM permalink
When I ook at how much chips an opponent has, its usually to plan out if I can bluff on a later street, given our stack sizes.

Basically, I'm either setting it up so it'll go all in if I have a value hand, or I'm setting up bet sizes so that when I put you all in, you'll have a price you can fold for.
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
• Posts: 9854
May 26th, 2014 at 12:11:01 PM permalink
Quote: Neutrino

I've been thinking about a move based on the theory on a very famous tell "If someone asks 'how much?' and then raise they have a good hand"

I've been mostly making neat bets before. So, what if from now on I just make extremely messy bets, with different color chips mixed in. My goal is to force the opponent to ask "how much" if he decides to not fold.

In theory, because I'm forcing him to ask "how much", if he raises he has a good hand. Therefore, if I make messy bets with mixed colors I'm guaranteed not to be bluffed. Being completely protected against bluffs is a huge advantage.

This sounds like extremely +EV if it works. The theory doesn't seem to have any holes in it logically, if the theory is wrong then the premise "how much + raise = good hand" is wrong.

You guys think this move is practical?

disregard
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
MangoJ
Joined: Mar 12, 2011
• Posts: 905
May 26th, 2014 at 3:42:07 PM permalink
Quote: Neutrino

In theory, because I'm forcing him to ask "how much", if he raises he has a good hand. Therefore, if I make messy bets with mixed colors I'm guaranteed not to be bluffed.

AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 19845
May 26th, 2014 at 4:23:09 PM permalink
Quote: Neutrino

I've been thinking about a move based on the theory on a very famous tell "If someone asks 'how much?' and then raise they have a good hand"

I've been mostly making neat bets before. So, what if from now on I just make extremely messy bets, with different color chips mixed in. My goal is to force the opponent to ask "how much" if he decides to not fold.

In theory, because I'm forcing him to ask "how much", if he raises he has a good hand. Therefore, if I make messy bets with mixed colors I'm guaranteed not to be bluffed. Being completely protected against bluffs is a huge advantage.

This sounds like extremely +EV if it works. The theory doesn't seem to have any holes in it logically, if the theory is wrong then the premise "how much + raise = good hand" is wrong.

You guys think this move is practical?

You have to think of why the guy is asking how much usually he knows about how much. He is just asking to give himself time to think how much he can extract from you or whatever he may be thinking, its a confident how much, and you can usually see them perk up and sit up, their voice will even change. If he is legitimately asking how much, its because he really has no clue how much and this will not be a tell just because he raises.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012