Malaru
• Posts: 274
Joined: Mar 22, 2010
September 27th, 2013 at 9:08:00 PM permalink
Is there a way to determain if there is any sort of aspect to determining how good a promotion is?

Case in point.

Poker promotion is \$1,000 high hand every half an hour for 12 hours.

You can play 1-3 spread limit hold em or 2-4 limit (or any of the no limit games that run the gambit)

Considering normal playing strategy, and a customer field size of roughly oh lets say 400 for a busy night.

Is there any way to say you overall could expect a positive return?

Basicly- is there a mathematical way to see if taking say a \$200 bankroll and playing low limit holdem is worth the potential of hitting a high paying high hand- seeing you will have 24 chances to do so?

Just curious when I started thinking about it.
"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld
rdw4potus
• Posts: 7237
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
September 27th, 2013 at 9:16:06 PM permalink
The promo is free, right? You just show up and they give extra money to the player with the high hand each half hour?

If there's no extra rake or cover charge or anything associated with the promo at the time of the giveaways, then the promo itself is +ev by definition - it's just a give-away. Your total net expectation depends on your skill on the underlying poker game of your choice. If the game was soft enough, I'd probably play something like no-limit. My best game is limit, but limit games usually go all the way to the river so each player sees fewer hands/hour than on a no limit table. So playing NL, if you have the skill to have a winning expectation there (or a losing expectation that is less than the +EV of the promo), you'll see more hands than you would in a limit game and maximize your odds of having the high-hand.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
September 27th, 2013 at 10:36:43 PM permalink
If everybody played the same way, i assume it adds about \$5 an HR. to your game.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
24Bingo
• Posts: 1348
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
September 28th, 2013 at 12:07:05 AM permalink
Nearly always, the way these are run is that they add a dollar to the rake, and hold on to a pretty fair chunk of that dollar, so over time, the promotion is -EV, but there will be pretty long windows where it's +EV. Either way, though, unless you're exactly good enough to beat the rake, the EV of the game itself is going to dwarf it one way or the other. These promotions tend to make for fishier tables, though, so that's a plus.

However, if it is a straight-up \$1000 high hand, that's strictly +EV, but again, the game itself is going to dwarf it one way or the other (and if you're playing 1-3 or 2/4, almost certainly "the other"). Although if it is \$1000 over 400 players per half hour, that's a pretty sweet deal; they're probably making not much more than twice that. So yeah, forget that first thing I said, but don't go if you don't have faith in your own game.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
September 28th, 2013 at 1:27:42 AM permalink
I would not consider this a SWEET deal at at all. you cant get twice as good with out ever having to hit anything at Binions right now. approx \$7.50 cash an hr added for time spent. \$2.00 an hr in comps and \$50 in free food per day 4 days a week.

You can play a .25 .50 cent NL game with \$100 added per hr with only about 10 players playing at the Plaza.
Hard Rock may still have Aces and kings cracked \$50 and a high hand during the afternoon.

I understand he is not in Vegas but adding at most \$5 bucks and hr to a game. is not a SWEET deal..... IMO.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
September 28th, 2013 at 1:49:28 AM permalink
That is a very rich promo if indeed the casino is giving \$1,000 to the high hand each half hour. I have only seen high hand promotions for 24-hour periods and then the winner got an iPad.

In a given half hour, just about anything can win that kind of promotion. Over a 24 hour period it was usually a royal or a straight flush or quad aces.

When I was at the Bicycle Casino in LA they had a high hand promotion that ran for a month with no additional rake.

Again if its \$1,000 every half hour I wouldn't leave the place, and I definitely would play limit because you don't want to be forced to lay down a possible high hand before the river.
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
September 28th, 2013 at 2:34:16 AM permalink
seriously rich promotion ? Your only seeing the \$1000 not the 400 people who play every possible high hand combination. never leave ? it's 5 bucks an hr assuming your a break even player. With a \$200 bankroll I assume he is not a break even player. With only \$200 he will probably have to play tight so his frequency will be lower then most others.

If games like Omaha count, your really screwed.

I'm not saying don't play. I'm just saying it sound way better then it is.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
September 28th, 2013 at 3:21:59 AM permalink
Sorry Axel, that's a great promotion especially playing a low limit game with \$24,000 being given out over 12 hours.

No one says you have to play like a jerk, but that's quite a rich bonus for playing your normal game.

And the key thing is you don't need a monster hand to win this -- there is no requirement for a royal or a straight flush. I can envision small quads and even aces-full winning in some of the half-hours.

Even at \$5 an hour, thats a loss of \$60 during the 12 hours, or a loss of \$2.50 each half hour for a crack at a \$1,000 bonus... not to mention what you might also win during the course of your play.

And there is nothing wrong with playing tight with only a \$200 bankroll. After all you would need at least a pair or suited connectors pre flop to have any hopes for a high hand jackpot. So if you are not in a blind you would only play with a pair or suited connectors.
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
September 28th, 2013 at 4:35:20 AM permalink
I would assume he is going to play tight aggressive. In this case I would think he would have a 1 in 600 shot at 1k per 30 min. do the math what that's worth per hr.

I wonder if their is a min amount that has to be in the pot?

If you think that's a good hourly rate I will have to quote you on that. Next time your negotiating a deal ask yourself if a few bucks an hr is a RICH deal.

I would limit my statement to "its a better then nothing deal"

If your an average player and you tip the dealers and they rake extra for this promotion it may be a losing proposition depending on your skill.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
24Bingo
• Posts: 1348
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
September 29th, 2013 at 9:42:58 PM permalink
Is \$5 a good hourly wage? No. Is \$20 a significantly better hourly wage than \$15? Yes.

I should stress that for the average player, this promotion is still -EV, but even then it's by about half as much. Usually, there isn't extra rake for one-day-only promotions, or promotions with a fixed payout. If you're going to play, this is a good day to play.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
October 2nd, 2013 at 6:00:58 AM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

Is \$5 a good hourly wage? No. Is \$20 a significantly better hourly wage than \$15? Yes.

I should stress that for the average player, this promotion is still -EV, but even then it's by about half as much. Usually, there isn't extra rake for one-day-only promotions, or promotions with a fixed payout. If you're going to play, this is a good day to play.

agreed

but If this is the only reason you're going to play, it's not worth it.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TheJacob
• Posts: 47
Joined: Mar 13, 2010
October 12th, 2013 at 9:22:57 AM permalink
I've played quite a few promos and some of the most lucrative promos in a vacuum were actually the worst.
Promos can be very good, but you have to be objective and understand the game quality has to cost you less than the value of the promo.
Malaru
• Posts: 274
Joined: Mar 22, 2010
October 12th, 2013 at 11:07:31 AM permalink
As a followup- I did go, and split the very first high hand of the afternoon between 2pm and 230pm for \$500 both ways.

As for those talking about the tight play need ect- I was on a 2-4 limit game- \$200 bankroll i figure plenty for a 2-4 limit and able to see plenty of flops for \$2. our high hands were A's full of Q's both of us had pocket Qs.

The promo drew a HUGE crowd- Ive never seen the place that full - there are about 21 tables, and each one was full 9 players- and there were 30 players waiting on 1-1 no limt, and about 15 players each waiting for 1-3 spread or 1-2 no limit - and a few waiting on 2-4.. I left a couple hours later up \$450 for the night.
"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
October 12th, 2013 at 2:09:48 PM permalink
Quote: Malaru

As a followup- I did go, and split the very first high hand of the afternoon between 2pm and 230pm for \$500 both ways.Glad you got lucky and made some money. Am j correct in understanding if not for the hitting and splitting a high hand you would of lost \$50 in 2 hrs on a 2 -4 game and you split a pot?

I would love for someone to do the math on how often queens full would hold up as a high hand with 189 people playing you were extremely lucky.

As for those talking about the tight play need ect- I was on a 2-4 limit game- \$200 bankroll i figure plenty for a 2-4 limit and able to see plenty of flops for \$2. our high hands were A's full of Q's both of us had pocket Qs.

The promo drew a HUGE crowd- Ive never seen the place that full - there are about 21 tables, and each one was full 9 players- and there were 30 players waiting on 1-1 no limt, and about 15 players each waiting for 1-3 spread or 1-2 no limit - and a few waiting on 2-4.. I left a couple hours later up \$450 for the night.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Malaru
• Posts: 274
Joined: Mar 22, 2010
October 13th, 2013 at 6:25:11 PM permalink
Ive been quoted.. but I dont see why.. or a reply.
"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld
beachbumbabs
• Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
October 13th, 2013 at 10:13:41 PM permalink
Malaru,

Axel commented within the quote..it starts "I love..."
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Malaru