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beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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November 5th, 2013 at 6:47:24 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I had Bears money line too. Good night.



Nice! Did you get out there and wrench Rodger's shoulder to "help" with that? heeheehee
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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November 5th, 2013 at 8:30:18 AM permalink
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 5th, 2013 at 8:51:49 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Now here is the math question. J.C. was dealt 161 hands and said that not once did he receive a pocket pair and got AK only once. I do know that the odds of getting a PP is 1 in 17 and any AK is 1 in 82.875. What is the probability of this occurring in 161 hands?



Probability of a pocket pair = 13*combin(4,2)/combin(52,2) = 5.88%.
Probability of AK = 4^2/combin(52,2)= 1.21%.
Probability of either = 5.88% + 1.21% = 7.09%.
Probability of NOT getting either = 100% -7.09% = 92.91%.
Probability of getting either once in 161 hands = 161*0.9291^160*.0709^1 = 1 in 11,268.

As someone who bet against J.C., am I wrong for not feeling unhappy about this?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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November 5th, 2013 at 9:00:09 AM permalink
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
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November 5th, 2013 at 4:23:02 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I had Bears money line too. Good night.



I really like your money line betting strategy, Wizard. Have you ever posted your formula for determining fair money lines.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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November 5th, 2013 at 9:30:28 PM permalink
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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November 5th, 2013 at 11:34:47 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard



As someone who bet against J.C., am I wrong for not feeling unhappy about this?



Nah, you probably should feel more bad that Aaron Rodgers injury helped the Bears last night. :P

I did feel bad that JC got a terrible cold deck though, and also felt bad for Marc-Etienne too as he was pretty good and just got coolered with kings. If JC gets average luck, you would have had a decent sweat over this. JC was one of the better players at that table, and I don't think I would have taken -375. Hope you got most of your action at -346.

Jay Farber (who was banned from 2+2 poker forum a few years back for promoting his "day job") basically got JC's cards from last night tonight. He couldn't get anything going. Ryan Riess outplayed him too, but he didn't need to with the cards he got heads-up.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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November 5th, 2013 at 11:44:41 PM permalink
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
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November 6th, 2013 at 5:45:50 AM permalink
Farber got badly outplayed....and made some mistakes. It wasn't cute when he got all that money in the pot preflop with pocket fives, then through them away. He was the short stack, and being outplayed. It was time to gamble. When he and Riess had the same hand, I think it was QT, they wound up chopping the pot because Farber's bet size on the river made it easy for Riess to call. He should have moved all in.

I like Riess. He made the statement that he grew up in pool halls and a lot of gambling was going on. I grew up in pool halls too. My first job was in a pool hall. I don't recommend that kids grow up in pool halls. But that's what Riess and I have in common. I like the kid.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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November 6th, 2013 at 6:57:26 AM permalink
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!

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