Big mistake, small mistake, slightly OK, or right move? - looking for outside analysis.

I got knocked out in the first round of a tournament- blinds 100/200 started off with 20,000 in chips.

At the beginning of the hand I had about 19,000 in chips- opponent had about 20,000 still.

Im in the BB he is MP. Some limping goes back to me I look down at J9o. I check not wanting to raise on such a hand.

Flop comes out and is the nuts for my hand- 10-8-7 rainbow. 4 players, 900 in the pot. I lead out with a 700 bet. MP min-raises to 1,400. Folded back to me, heads up I dont want to scare him away so I call. Turn produces a J. I lead out again for 1,500- He re-raises to 7,000.

At this point my J has been counterfeited- but he re-raised me before that came out- Did he hit trips, slow-play pocket As and not scared of the board, or did he hit an equel straight or the lower straight- the ONLY hand that could have mine beat is Q-9. Due to his early re-raise over me- and because of the sheer jump he did from my 1,500 to 6,000 I push all in and he snap calls- and has Q-9 for the turned nuts beating my flopped nuts.

I didnt see a reason to call 6,000- and with him re raising me before the turn I figured him for at best also having a made straight where I was better then 50/50 to have a better straight then his.

... Did I play this wrong? Was it my own foolishness after getting copied and not placing him on Q-9 that got me in trouble? with how it played out while yea, Q-9 was in the flop range he didnt have a made hand to re-raise me on.... should I have shoved to his re-raise before the turn.. but I think he would have called anyhow unless he was outright bluffing which he wasnt- he re-raised with a double-straight draw one lower and one higher then my own.

Someone got onto me a little bit when it was said and done that I should have known he had Q-9- which I was about 80% certain when he snap-called my allin post-turn, but until he made that call I dont know if I should or could have placed him on that hand- even when he re-raised me the second time.

It was a quick out for me, and Ive just been playing it back in my head. I still didnt see any way I could have folded even after getting my J copied when it was heads up and with the action the way it had been- and even if we both had a 9- I think any time you feel the board will play or you have a split pot- you should bet.

Looking for an outside analysis. I think I did what I should have, and he did what he should have- with his re-raising doing what it needed to do as a semi-bluff which was confuse me off of him hitting the nuts on the river when I got copied. But I donno.

Quote: Malaru

Looking for an outside analysis. I think I did what I should have, and he did what he should have- with his re-raising doing what it needed to do as a semi-bluff which was confuse me off of him hitting the nuts on the river when I got copied. But I donno.

I would NEVER have played Q9 like that. I'd have been gone after the bet on the flop. All he had was a straight draw and an over card. I guess the rainbow board wasn't too scary, but I'd have definitely considered that the BB had hit a pair & laid down when you bet it out.

I probably also would have played your hand more aggressively post-flop. Maybe 150% of the pot instead of 90% of the pot on that bet. You aren't interested in playing against anyone on a draw, so the point of that bet is to find the guy with an over pair who doesn't realize how clobbered he is.

Probably would have pushed all-in before the Turn, but given that you hadn't, nothing wrong with your play after the Turn. You'd have to be friggin' clairvoyant to play him for Q-9, I'd have put him on Two Pair or Trip Queens.

Actually, I definitely would have went all-in before the Turn. You had the post-flop nuts, maybe he has 9x for the open-ended straight draw, he's not going to be so eager to bet if the Turn misses him and definitely won't if the Turn and River miss him. Maybe he has A,10, now, if a King comes on the Board, his ten looks worse, and maybe he doesn't bet. If he has Two Pair and that Nine comes, particularly if it comes on the River, well shit, now he's scared of the straight!

No offense, but you had no reason not to go all-in after he Raised you. Still, you didn't make a mistake playing the Turn as you did, just that you shouldn't have had a decision that needed to be made there in the first place.

" I got knocked out in the first round of a tournament- blinds 100/200 started off with 20,000 in chips." DUH !

Quote: rdw4potus

I would NEVER have played Q9 like that. I'd have been gone after the bet on the flop. All he had was a straight draw and an over card. I guess the rainbow board wasn't too scary, but I'd have definitely considered that the BB had hit a pair & laid down when you bet it out.

I wouldn't have Raised, but I'd have made the Call. You figure he has $225 in the pot at this point, so if he folds, that's gone. There was $900 in the pot, the Raise makes it $1,600 and his call would make it $2300. You have $2300 in the pot, and $925 of it is his money.

Just looking at the open-ended straight draw, stress open-ended, you have a 8/47 = 17.02% probability of hitting the straight just on that next card. That doesn't even factor in the overcard, so you have 3/47 = 6.38% of drawing top pair.

If you even hit that Straight, you're going to have the best straight, because the Jack makes you Queen High and he'd have to have a nine for the six to do anything for him...and even then...that's just a split. I'm just going to look at the Straight for right now, though, because even if you hit that Queen, still a far cry from being able to assume you have the best hand

Assume a win if you hit the Straight, ignore the Push for right now. Also, ignore the fact that this player, who just bet $700, is going to likely bet even more if you hit the straight. So you have a guaranteed -$225 as opposed to:

.1702 * 1375 = $234.02

.8298 * -700 = -$580.86

The Expected Value is an additional -$346.84, but then you have to factor in how much more you anticipate winning if you make that straight. Besides, it's also for a very small percentage of his chip stack early in the tournament to make that call.

In addition to that, I haven't given the Queen any positive value, though it has some. I have also assigned no value to a miss, double-check, and hitting that Straight on the River.

Considering both the Turn and River, I believe he would have been about 31% to hit the Straight with either card.

Quote:

I probably also would have played your hand more aggressively post-flop. Maybe 150% of the pot instead of 90% of the pot on that bet. You aren't interested in playing against anyone on a draw, so the point of that bet is to find the guy with an over pair who doesn't realize how clobbered he is.

I definitely agree with that, although since he was re-raised, I'd have pushed it all-in.

Quote: Mission146

I definitely agree with that, although since he was re-raised, I'd have pushed it all-in.

I think we're talking about different points in that round of betting, though I also think we agree with each other about both points.

I'm saying that 700 initially was too light. I'd have gone more like 1,200 to push out all but the made hands. You want to represent something like top pair or middle pair, and you're fishing for the guy with an overpair or trips here.

You're saying that all-in was better than calling after the raise. I'd have made the all-in play against a re-raise regardless of the outcome of the first point. But, I suspect that the guy with Q-9 would have been pushed out by a higher early bet. If that guy does stay in, though, there's no way I'm letting him see another card without all his money in the pot.

Armchair quarterbacking always wins the game. Having said that, and not knowing your style of play, with him raising you on a garbage flop where you have the nut straight, I think you have to be more aggressive right there, not call to slow-play your straight. I would politely suggest you were counting your chickens instead of making him pay to see the turn, and they bit you (nasty birds). I mean, really, the guy had 3 outs in 2 cards max (not counting the lower side of the open-ended straight, since you had that beat); what was he even doing in there? I would've played him for a middle/high pair, two pair , or a higher overpair, before I would think he had a lousy Q9 with that raise. So I would say minor mistake, only because it was the first round; I think you benefit more from swinging your power hands when they hit the flop than slow-play traps set early on, because it sets you up as an aggressive, lucky guy and later bluffs and slow-play will work better. The 1400 would have given you the edge on him, because unless he was suicidal he would have had to fold if you re-raised big; that needed to be enough for you right then. JMHO. YMMV.