Odds of a Aces full of Kings being beaten by Quad Jacks or higher

I am having difficulty calculating the odds of a full house, aces full of kings with pocket pair, being beaten by quad jacks or higher, pocket pair, in Hold'Em.

Any help you can provide?

Odds are 100% I think.

Quote: paisiello

Odds are 100% I think.

For the way it was worded, that's a great reply.


But for a real answer, I suggest Naomi read the following page:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/texas-hold-em/bad-beat-jackpots/

Quote: DJTeddyBear

For the way it was worded, that's a great reply.


But for a real answer, I suggest Naomi read the following page:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/texas-hold-em/bad-beat-jackpots/

That won't even help. That page is just for bad beats for hands of a minimum rank (with both hole cards) beaten by any higher hand (with both hole cards).

This would require a new tedious calculation, unfortunately.

Yes, I understand if a player has aces full of spades, quad jacks or higher will definitely beat the hand. What I am looking for is the odds behind actually having those hands dealt.

I think what you are asking about are the odds of "jackpot" situation playing no limit hold em.

Since I am math illiterate I can't tell you or explain it to you. But I remember seeing some report somewhere that said the odds of it happening at your table are something like one in forty-thousand hands or about the odds of hitting a royal flush.

I have been at a jackpot table about six or seven times in the past 8 years or so. I have never been the winner or loser in a jackpot situation.

edited to add: found this on the web http://www.pokerlistings.com/strategy/general-poker/the-truth-about-bad-beat-jackpots

Quote: Naomi

Yes, I understand if a player has aces full of kings, quad jacks or higher will definitely beat the hand. What I am looking for is the odds behind actually having those hands dealt.

Easy answer: not good...lol

Hard answer: It depends on a few factors. The biggest factors are: How many players are at the table? Do both hole cards have to be used? Technically it also matters on players' playing style (how often they fold preflop). This last factor is often ignored though because it can't easily be easily quantified. Without telling us these things, it's pretty difficult for us to give you a reasonable answer.

The table will have 10 players, maximum.
Both hole cards must be used in the hands.
I can't speak to the playing style, as it will differ.

There are two ways to have aces full of kings if the player must have a pocket pair -- pocket AA + AKKXY on board, or pocket KK + AAAXY on board. In both cases, neither X nor Y can be an A, and one but not both of X/Y can be a K.

Within each of those two, there are various options for suited board cards such that you'd be able to get beaten with a royal. But for each, just go through each configuration and figure out how many hands beat it. There aren't so many to make it prohibitive to do it by hand. For example:

Pocket AA, Board AKKXY:
a) if X=Y and the opponent has the other two, you lose. For the ranks you care about, that can only happen with J or Q, not A or K.
b) if X and Y are suited to either A or K and within straight range, you can lose to a straight flush
c) if X or Y are suited to A and one K and are Q/J/T, you can lose to a royal flush.
Obviously there are some overlaps in the above so you'll need to factor those out. But that's basically how to do it, assuming you're only talking about one player beating another.

Playing micros on Bovada I have had quads vs. the nut full house two times in the last month (I am guessing about 4000 hands). quad 6s vs queens full of 6s and quad 10s vs queens full of 10s. There were 3 10s on the board on the last hand. I don't know the odds, but it feels pretty lucky to me. I am not sure if Bovada has a bad beat jackpot or if the hands would qualify.

Most of the bad beat jackpots require Aces full of 10s or better. Hollywood Park has Aces full of 9s beaten by quads or better.

I think Pechanga's big mega bad beat jackpots are quads beaten by quads or better.

welcome aboard, Naomi.

Quote: Naomi

I am having difficulty calculating the odds of a full house, aces full of kings with pocket pair, being beaten by quad jacks or higher, pocket pair, in Hold'Em.

Any help you can provide?

You could start by looking at the possible ways for this to occur. I have started with the case of dealing to 2 players. Just calculate the number of ways for each situation to occur, add them together, and divide by the total possible ways to deal 2, 2, and 5 cards from 52. You may expand from there for multiple players before the deal...

For a two-player game:

• Opponent wins with quad Aces
1. impossible - not enough Aces in the deck!
• Opponent wins with quad Kings
1. player has two Aces; opponent has two Kings; the board has an Ace, two Kings, and any two lower ranked cards
• Opponent wins with quad Queens
1. player has two Aces; opponent has two Queens; the board has an Ace, two Kings, and two Queens
2. player has two Kings; opponent has two Queens; the board has three Aces and two Queens
• Opponent wins with quad Jacks
1. player has two Aces; opponent has two Jacks; the board has an Ace, two Kings, and two Jacks
2. player has two Kings; opponent has two Jacks; the board has three Aces and two Jacks