Boney526
Boney526
Joined: Sep 25, 2011
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December 8th, 2012 at 4:35:57 PM permalink
Quote: 98Clubs

Agree, Bet or shove on the turn in keeping with your image. You get donkey points for letting him go, now HE determines YOUR fate. You don;t seem well enough acquainted with his style of play. I have him sussed for a pair or Ace-other also. Folding is a wise choice, but calling the 12 bet in hindsight must be crampin your brain.



Shove the turn? Really? I never would have thought of that. I thought about betting, but a shove would almost certainly only get called if I was beat. Of course, he'd also probably fold a bunch of hands that beat me to an all in.

Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to sit here and tout my horn about how great I am. I can easily identify other plays where the mistakes I made were obvious to me. I'm trying to understand WHY other people would play this hand differently than I did.

I understand the idea behind betting the turn, but going all in would be putting about 280-300 at risk to win the 100 dollar pot. I'd need a lot of fold equity for that to be profitable. I don't see getting near that much fold equity.
98Clubs
98Clubs
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December 8th, 2012 at 5:19:51 PM permalink
As others have pointed out, if he's holding mid-pairs, and called your $50 pre, a 2-pair board is worth a shove if your advertising loose. The $50 raise CAN indicate a good hand, 10's or better. His call looked like Ace Face or mid pair. Flip the boat over, tuff loss. He would have over-played a King-X (except AK or KQ suited) hand anyways. I guess the big fear is 5-5 or KK buried, the latter might re-raise the 50 tho. So, the shove reinforces the high-pair, and might give Villain pause. Of course varying play-styles b4/after this hand also works.

Sometimes the wrong play at the wrong time works, especially when loose.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
Buzzard
Buzzard
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December 8th, 2012 at 5:28:44 PM permalink
You put in $50 to see where he was. He had opened in $12 from early, but just called your raise. then on 55k to you, you check ?
WTF get serious. Per you he has just sat down a few hands ago. You bet $50 to win $15 if he folds preflop, which seemed unlikely. I would pretty much rule out AA or KK for him, wouldn't You. Looks like a middle pair or AX even. Assuming he knows what he is doing in early.

As far as your image, he has not been there long enough, plus most players at this level play their cards, not you. That's why rocks are great bottom feeders at this level. Not in a hand for 15 rounds, not counting blind, and people call a rocks raise and stay till the river. LOL

Now with $103 in the pot , he checks, and you now don't put in $50 or $100 to win $103 ? ? You asked here because you thought you made a mistake. And you did !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
Buzzard
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December 8th, 2012 at 5:39:51 PM permalink
" I checked because I thought he was not folding to a bet here, if he has something like AK, for obvious reasons. "

Explain to me why he would check AK ? Really. What, did he think you had a 5 in your hand when you raised $50 ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
strictlyAP
strictlyAP
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December 8th, 2012 at 5:40:24 PM permalink
absolutely not even a hand I would remember five minutes later,ZERO option but to fold
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
Buzzard
Buzzard
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December 8th, 2012 at 5:42:39 PM permalink
I agree if you let this hand get to the river.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Boney526
Boney526
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December 8th, 2012 at 5:57:19 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

" I checked because I thought he was not folding to a bet here, if he has something like AK, for obvious reasons. "

Explain to me why he would check AK ? Really. What, did he think you had a 5 in your hand when you raised $50 ?



Thanks guys, I do think I should have raised the flop now, and I guess that was my mistake.

But I thought he would check AK because he was trying to induce a bet from me. At least that's what I was thinking when I was playing the hand. I suppose I shouldn't have been so worried about the King, because the only two hands I had him on that connected with the K were AK and KQs. He was still ahead with a mid-pair.

I think he would have folded 77+, but not JJ or higher. He clearly wouldn't have folded with a King, so he probably would have folded only on AJ, AQ and some meduim pairs. In the moment, I didn't think that was good enough to bet 50 into 100 but I guess the C-Bet here is a good play. I'm not gonna actually do the math, but out of that range I now think he would have folded a large enough portion of his range that the mistake was not firing the bet post flop.

I did think he was trying to set up a check-raise, though, so that influenced my decision.
tringlomane
tringlomane
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December 8th, 2012 at 6:24:00 PM permalink
Quote: Boney526

Thanks guys, I do think I should have raised the flop now, and I guess that was my mistake.

But I thought he would check AK because he was trying to induce a bet from me. At least that's what I was thinking when I was playing the hand. I suppose I shouldn't have been so worried about the King, because the only two hands I had him on that connected with the K were AK and KQs. He was still ahead with a mid-pair.

I think he would have folded 77+, but not JJ or higher. He clearly wouldn't have folded with a King, so he probably would have folded only on AJ, AQ and some meduim pairs. In the moment, I didn't think that was good enough to bet 50 into 100 but I guess the C-Bet here is a good play. I'm not gonna actually do the math, but out of that range I now think he would have folded a large enough portion of his range that the mistake was not firing the bet post flop.

I did think he was trying to set up a check-raise, though, so that influenced my decision.



Yes, he would probably k/r (k/r = check-raise) AK or at least check to you, but if you get k/r'ed, you just let the hand go. It's not a big deal really.
Switch
Switch
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December 8th, 2012 at 8:04:45 PM permalink
If he called later with 63s then I would put him on 2 possible hands (as players get attached to suited cards):-

a) KJs (or similar) ... his actions would suggest that he checked the flop in case you had AK. I think that he would have called if you'd bet but the bet on the flop by you would have signalled you something. When the 2nd King came he would check now hoping that you bet and didn't hold AK. He should also bet a medium pair to you and didn't either because he was holding a King or because he didn't play it that well.

b) Medium pair ... he would check to see if you bet the King. Again a bet on the flop could well make him put the hand down.

I would definitely have bet the 'turn' if not the flop. If he has a King then he will lead out on the river and you can fold. if he has a medium pair then he may well call you on the turn but will likely check on the river. One thing that you would stop him doing is stealing with a hand like 45s, which he could have done in this situation (although I agree that it would be a loose call with the reraise pre-flop).

For what it's worth, I put him on KJs even though it's hard to assess all of the information.
tringlomane
tringlomane
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December 8th, 2012 at 8:39:05 PM permalink
Quote: Switch

If he called later with 63s then I would put him on 2 possible hands (as players get attached to suited cards):-

a) KJs (or similar) ... his actions would suggest that he checked the flop in case you had AK. I think that he would have called if you'd bet but the bet on the flop by you would have signalled you something. When the 2nd King came he would check now hoping that you bet and didn't hold AK. He should also bet a medium pair to you and didn't either because he was holding a King or because he didn't play it that well.

b) Medium pair ... he would check to see if you bet the King. Again a bet on the flop could well make him put the hand down.

I would definitely have bet the 'turn' if not the flop. If he has a King then he will lead out on the river and you can fold. if he has a medium pair then he may well call you on the turn but will likely check on the river. One thing that you would stop him doing is stealing with a hand like 45s, which he could have done in this situation (although I agree that it would be a loose call with the reraise pre-flop).

For what it's worth, I put him on KJs even though it's hard to assess all of the information.



a) on the turn, he shouldn't care if you have AK, villain is still 50/50 if you have AK since you both have full houses with an identical draw to a better full house (pairing the kicker)

I would say it's a bit more likely that he has a medium pair trying to squeeze out river value. It really depends on his opening range and how much of that range has a king in it. But given that he will play 63s to a raise, it's definitely possible he would open and call a 3-bet with KJs.

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