New pope

Are there any betting lines available for who will be the next pope?

I am not Catholic but I always find the process interesting.

I saw a list on CNN about possible successors, but I don't think there are any betting lines at the moment.

Would this be allowed in Nevada, since the pope is elected, if only by the College of Cardinals, and betting on elections is illegal?
Then again, technically the Oscars are elections of the AMPAS members, and those are allowed.

It wouldn't be of much use to put out lines now, as nobody knows how long Francis will remain pope.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

I saw a list on CNN about possible successors, but I don't think there are any betting lines at the moment.

Would this be allowed in Nevada, since the pope is elected, if only by the College of Cardinals, and betting on elections is illegal?
Then again, technically the Oscars are elections of the AMPAS members, and those are allowed.

It wouldn't be of much use to put out lines now, as nobody knows how long Francis will remain pope.
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Being the Pope is legally a head of state it would probably fall under the rules for political elections.

Yes as far as the timing, being a Pope is almost always replaced upon death it would imply an included bet on death of a person. I don't know if that is illegal in Nevada but it sure is in bad taste and bad for business.

Many jurisdictions that control gambling prohibit such bets, if it happens, it will most likely be in an illegal zone

I'll get the ball started. I predict a return to a more conservative Pope. Since that's vague, I think the next one will be from Europe. Who will take the field?

The selection of a pope is a decision made by a small group of senior officials, it is not a public election. It is akin to senior sports writers picking the National League MVP - the sports writers vote for the MVP in an election, just as cardinals vote for a pope. And sports books do permit the public to wager on who will be MVP.

Electing a pope is similar to the editors of Time Magazine electing a Man of the Year.

Regarding the successor to the current pope: Americans don't know any of the candidates. And, frankly, it makes no difference in our lives.

Quote: Wizard

I'll get the ball started. I predict a return to a more conservative Pope. Since that's vague, I think the next one will be from Europe. Who will take the field?
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I think I agree with you. How about an over/under on the age of the next pope? I would assume the number would be around 71.

Quote: Wizard

I'll get the ball started. I predict a return to a more conservative Pope. Since that's vague, I think the next one will be from Europe. Who will take the field?
link to original post

Do you mean the next Pope will be born in Europe or will he be a European Cardinal? The movie The Conclave has the Church electing the Cardinal of Afganistan as Pope, although he was Mexican by birth.

Quote: Wizard

I'll get the ball started. I predict a return to a more conservative Pope. Since that's vague, I think the next one will be from Europe. Who will take the field?
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I predict the next Pope will be a man, old, and gay. It's likely 80% or more of priests worldwide are gay. A book written by an insider at the Vatican claims that at least 80% of the priests in the Vatican who work with the Pope are gay.

Quote: DRich

I think I agree with you. How about an over/under on the age of the next pope? I would assume the number would be around 71.
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That's a pretty good line, but I would take the under for a small fun bet if you're interested.

Quote: billryan

Do you mean the next Pope will be born in Europe or will he be a European Cardinal? The movie The Conclave has the Church electing the Cardinal of Afganistan as Pope, although he was Mexican by birth.
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I mean where he served as a Cardinal.

Quote: Wizard

Quote: billryan

Do you mean the next Pope will be born in Europe or will he be a European Cardinal? The movie The Conclave has the Church electing the Cardinal of Afganistan as Pope, although he was Mexican by birth.
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I mean where he served as a Cardinal.
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There are many European born Cardinals who work in the Vatican but are titular Cardinals of some obscure location.

Quote: Wizard

I'll get the ball started. I predict a return to a more conservative Pope. Since that's vague, I think the next one will be from Europe. Who will take the field?
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I follow the workings of the Vatican somewhat and subscribe to a newsletter of news of interest to Catholics. The misinformation here is...interesting. That being said:

Of the current 252 Cardinals, Francis has appointed 149 of them with JP2 and Benedict having appointed the rest. Of the 137 Cardinals eligible to vote (age less than 80), Francis has appointed 109 as of this writing. So he appointed almost 80 % of the voting bloc. So it stands to reason that the next conclave would reflect his approach the Papacy and teachings as opposed to more conservative teachings such as from Benedict.

As for nationality Italy has 17 Cardinal electors followed by the US at 10. Brazil has 7 and everywhere else is also in single digits.

As for continental demographic, Europe has 54 Cardinal electors, followed by Asia with 24 then N America with 20, Africa and S America with 18 and Oceania with 4.

All that being said and defining nationality as which passport the cardinal holds (which is how the Vatican does it) I would bet the next Pope would be from Europe or South America, be between 70-75 years old and be a bit more conservative than Francis but not nearly as much as Benedict or JP2. I will also state that there hasn't been an Italian Pope since 1978 (not including Francis, who was born in Argentina of Italian immigrants) and they are chomping at the bit big time to reclaim the office.

Determining which Cardinal is papabile is an age-old parlor game!

Quote: Wizard

Quote: DRich

I think I agree with you. How about an over/under on the age of the next pope? I would assume the number would be around 71.
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That's a pretty good line, but I would take the under for a small fun bet if you're interested.
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Thanks, but I really don't have enough confidence to make a bet and I also hope they choose someone younger like Cardinal Sergio da Rocha of Brazil who is 65.

I'd like to see a Chinese Pope or possibly a Russian. I'll settle for a Filipino.
It's time to emphasize Catholic and not Roman.

Quote: billryan

I'd like to see a Chinese Pope or possibly a Russian. I'll settle for a Filipino.
It's time to emphasize Catholic and not Roman.
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Perhaps, but aren't things like Urbi et Orbi primarily in Italian?

Quote: billryan

Quote: Wizard

Quote: billryan

Do you mean the next Pope will be born in Europe or will he be a European Cardinal? The movie The Conclave has the Church electing the Cardinal of Afganistan as Pope, although he was Mexican by birth.
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I mean where he served as a Cardinal.
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There are many European born Cardinals who work in the Vatican but are titular Cardinals of some obscure location.
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They're all bishops. Bishop is the last of the three Catholic ordinations. The Pope is the Bishop of Rome, and a cardinal is a bishop who has been granted the privilege of coming to the Vatican, advising the Pope and selecting the next Pope.

Another "privilege" of a cardinal is he gets a historic church in Italy, in the regions previously known as the Papal States, where he can live. But he is also responsible for maintaining that church with funds raised from his own home diocese where he is still, of course, the bishop. So the ones from rich places (i.e., the Americans) get the churches that are in dire need of expensive repair. What a dirty trick!

As far as the Pope, I think the Church might be getting away from a focus on Europe and replacing it with Latin America, where people really still are Catholic. So I would think there is a good chance the next Pope will also be from that region.

Quote: billryan

I'd like to see a Chinese Pope or possibly a Russian. I'll settle for a Filipino.
It's time to emphasize Catholic and not Roman.
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The Church in China is mostly controlled by the CCP and there are no Vatican appointed Chinese Cardinals, so there will never be a Chinese citizen as Cardinal. The Church in Russia is a minority church, somewhat repressed by the government's favor the Russia Orthodox Church. There are only 500,000 Catholics in Russia and no Cardinals. There will never be a Russian Pope.

One of the current frontrunners is a Filipino, FYI.Works for me!

But, I hear you on the Catholic part. That's why the current Pope is Argentinian.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: billryan

I'd like to see a Chinese Pope or possibly a Russian. I'll settle for a Filipino.
It's time to emphasize Catholic and not Roman.
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Perhaps, but aren't things like Urbi et Orbi primarily in Italian?
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Public addresses are usually in Italian. Official Vatican documents are usually in Latin, especially decisions of Vatican courts or tribunals. Privately the Pope uses whatever language he wishes. JP2 spoke Polish in the Papal Household. His private secretary was a Polish bishop and there were 5 Polish nuns to meet his daily needs.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: billryan

I'd like to see a Chinese Pope or possibly a Russian. I'll settle for a Filipino.
It's time to emphasize Catholic and not Roman.
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Perhaps, but aren't things like Urbi et Orbi primarily in Italian?
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The Church clergy used to united in that they all spoke Latin. Urbi et Orbi is Latin, not Italian. As it is given in Rome, which is in Italy, most of it might be given in Italian as most of the audience will be Italian.

Quote: GenoDRPh

Quote: billryan

I'd like to see a Chinese Pope or possibly a Russian. I'll settle for a Filipino.
It's time to emphasize Catholic and not Roman.
link to original post

The Church in China is mostly controlled by the CCP and there are no Vatican appointed Chinese Cardinals, so there will never be a Chinese citizen as Cardinal. The Church in Russia is a minority church, somewhat repressed by the government's favor the Russia Orthodox Church. There are only 500,000 Catholics in Russia and no Cardinals. There will never be a Russian Pope.

One of the current frontrunners is a Filipino, FYI.Works for me!

But, I hear you on the Catholic part. That's why the current Pope is Argentinian.
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There are no publicly appointed Chinese Cardinals, but that is political, not religious. There is no condition that a man must be a Cardinal to be elected Pope. There is an 800-year-old tradition of electing a Cardinals but any Catholic Man who is eligible for Priesthood can be elected.
Before Communism, there were less than five million Christians in China. Now it is said to be between sixty and eighty million. An Asian Pope might double that.
As a Catholic School boy, I was taught there will be no peace until Russia is consecrated in Mary's name. Given that clue, I'm hoping for a Russian Pope.

Quote: billryan

Quote: GenoDRPh

Quote: billryan

I'd like to see a Chinese Pope or possibly a Russian. I'll settle for a Filipino.
It's time to emphasize Catholic and not Roman.
link to original post

The Church in China is mostly controlled by the CCP and there are no Vatican appointed Chinese Cardinals, so there will never be a Chinese citizen as Cardinal. The Church in Russia is a minority church, somewhat repressed by the government's favor the Russia Orthodox Church. There are only 500,000 Catholics in Russia and no Cardinals. There will never be a Russian Pope.

One of the current frontrunners is a Filipino, FYI.Works for me!

But, I hear you on the Catholic part. That's why the current Pope is Argentinian.
link to original post

There are no publicly appointed Chinese Cardinals, but that is political, not religious. There is no condition that a man must be a Cardinal to be elected Pope. There is an 800-year-old tradition of electing a Cardinals but any Catholic Man who is eligible for Priesthood can be elected.
Before Communism, there were less than five million Christians in China. Now it is said to be between sixty and eighty million. An Asian Pope might double that.
As a Catholic School boy, I was taught there will be no peace until Russia is consecrated in Mary's name. Given that clue, I'm hoping for a Russian Pope.
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I will bet my entire net worth it will never happen in my lifetime. An American will be Pope before a Russian or a Chinese.

Odds of the new pope being black are pretty much zero. There's only been one black Cardinal in the history of the Catholic Church and he was just appointed in 2020. There might have been three black popes in the early early days of the church but nobody knows for sure if they were black or not so who knows. By early I'm talking about 300AD. New Popes are always elected from the College of Cardinals since the 1300s.

How about a Chinese American or a Russian American?

EB doesn't know the difference between an African-American cardinal and an African one. There are several dozen black Cardinals eligible to vote in the next conclave. For the most part,they represent the Catholic Churchs of Africa.